January 04, 2018

What was biggest national sports story of 2017? Annual poll. Ten finalists, you pick top 3. Last day to vote!; plus final Herald NFL QB rankings, final college SOPY standings, latest Back In My Day video (Apple Watches) & more

GREG COTE'S RANDOM EVIDENCE BLOG: MIAMI. SPORTS. AND BEYOND.

1) It's THURSDAY, JANUARY 4. How long should one keep saying "Happy new year." I say one week. Speaking of the new year, what a perfect time to treat the Dolfans in your life to my book on the club's first half century! Click on Amazon or Barnes & Noble and check out Fins At 50. 2) So honored to have received the 2017 Orange Bowl Edwin Pope Media Award over the weekend. Thanks again, OB. 3) Watch for our season-ending college State Offensive Player of the Year (SOPY) final rankings later today. 4) In The Previous Blogpost (ITPB): Dolphins lose finale to Buffalo with DSM poll, Hot Button Top 10 & more. 5Join us on Twitter @gregcote. Also Facebook and Instagram.

MaeribackRest in peace, Mae Riback: I'm sorry to say that the dear reader and "my oldest fan" whom I wrote about in March passed away peacefully a few days ago at age 104. Click here for the tale of how me came to meet. R.I.P., Tiny.

 

YOU PICK THE 2017 NATIONAL SPORTS STORY OF THE YEAR: Welcome to our annual year-in-review vote on the biggest sports story in America. The top 10 stories in this Nattystorypoll are not mine; they are from The Associated Press official annual ranking for the calendar year. I list them alphabetically here, not in Nationalstorythe 1 through 10 order of The AP's selection, so as not to prejudice the jury. I want this to be your independent vote and not influenced by The AP's rank. I am purposely not including a synopsis of each story, because if the ballot phrase alone is not sufficient, the story mustn't have been that big or important to you. VOTE FOR YOUR TOP THREE and check back often to monitor evolving results. And remember, this is a national list, so please consider your vote in that broad context. Soon, following our national vote, we'll offer a separate poll to choose 2017's biggest Greater Miami/South Florida sports story. For now, let's go nationwide. A year ago, you voted the Cubs' World Series win the No. 1 national sports story, followed by LeBron James leading Cleveland to the NBA title and the death of Muhammad Ali. What will reign for '17? You decide. Vote now. We'll keep the poll open three days and announce results on Friday as we present the local poll. 

Vote for the top three (3) biggest national sports stories of 2017 in the poll below. You may also vote online by clicking HERE:

Deciphering a 3-vote ballot: A three-vote ballot means that, theoretically, if everyone cast the maximum three votes, no one story could receive more than 33.3 percent of the vote. It also means the vote totals can be tripled to give an indication of how many ballots that story is included on. In other words, a story drawing 20 percent would have been included on about 60% of ballots.

BradyBRADY EDGES BREES IN CLOSEST FINISH EVER FOR HERALD NFL QB CROWN: The Patriots' Tom Brady edges the Saints' Drew Brees by less than one full point, 554.80 to 553.90 — the closest finish in our rankings' 20-year history — to win the Miami Herald's 2017 NFL quarterback championship. The season title is Brady's second and first since 2007. Brees is the all-time leader with seven crowns. Dolphin Jay Cutler finishes in 24th place, just making our final Top 25 chart. The Chargers' Philip Rivers wins Week 17 to end in sixth place overall. Our Passer Success System (PASS) rankings began in 1998 and the formula has been unchanged since its inception, factoring accuracy, yardage, TD-interception ratio and team result. Most major ranking systems such as the NFL’s and ESPN’s are complicated and percentile based, allowing QBs who miss half a season to still win a title, while our system is cumulative, rewarding players who are consistently productive and avoid injury or benching.

The final Top 25 for 2017:

Rk Lw Player, Team                  Wk17      Season

1   1   Tom Brady, NE                19.50      554.80

2   2   Drew Brees, NO              29.25      553.90

3   5   Matthew Stafford, DET    41.15     501.30

4   3   Alex Smith, KC                 DNP      487.10

5   4   Ben Roethlisberger, PIT     DNP      473.55

6   9   Philip Rivers, LAC            52.35     469.75

7   8   Case Keenum, MIN           30.45     450.35

8 10   Russell Wilson, SEA          24.05     438.15

9   6   Kirk Cousins, WAS             1.90      435.65

10 11 Matt Ryan, ATL                34.85     433.75

11 7  Jared Goff, LAR                DNP       424.45

12 12 Carson Wentz, PHI            DNP      386.80

13 14 Joe Flacco, BAL              16.15      370.05

14 13 Blake Bortles, JAC           -2.10      365.35

15 15 Dak Prescott, DAL           20.95      363.85

16 16 Derek Carr, OAK              22.15     362.80

17 18 Eli Manning, NYG             3.60      339.40

18 21 Andy Dalton, CIN            27.10     338.00

19 17 Josh McCown, NYJ           DNP      336.30

20 20 Jameis Winston, TB        22.15     336.20

21 19 Cam Newton, CAR          -3.00      328.10

22 23 Tyrod Taylor, BUF           29.20     315.95

23 22 Marcus Mariota, TEN      17.70     309.60

24 24 Jay Cutler, MIA                0.30     278.30

25 25 Jacoby Brissett, IND       18.70    275.90

Week 17 Best: Rivers, LAC, 52.35 (28-37, 387, 3-0 in win). Season Best: Roethlisberger, PIT, 58.30 (Wk14). Record BestRoethlisberger, PIT, 80.10 (2014).

Week 17 WorstNick Foles, PHI, minus-4.05 (4-11, 39, 0-1 in loss). Season Worst: Nathan Peterman, BUF, minus-13.70 (Wk 11). Record WorstTim Hasselbeck, WAS, minus-23.20 (2003).

Most championshipsBrees, NO, 7; Peyton Manning IND/DEN, 6.

Season recordManning, DEN, 714.85 (2013). Dolphins season record: Ryan Tannehill, 481.25 (2014).

FLOWERS TOPS MILTON FOR HERALD STATE OFFENSIVE PLAYER OF YEAR!: [Click HERE to see this online] South Florida Bulls quarterback Quinton Flowers (pictured, from Miami Jackson High) edges UCF counterpart QfMcKenzie Milton as the Miami Herald’s 2017 State Offensive Player of the Year — the “state Heisman” for our seven top-level Football Bowl Subdivision (FBS) college teams. Miami Hurricanes quarterback Malik Rosier finishes third in the final rankings, followed closely by FAU running back Devin Singletary. The top-finishing receiver, eighth overall, is UCF’s Tre’Quan Smith. The do-it-all, dual-threat Flowers passed for 2,911 yards and 25 touchdowns, while running for 1,078 yards and 11 TDs. The final Top 25 shows balance among the seven schools, with five players from UCF and South Florida making it, and three each from Miami, Florida State, Florida, FAU and FIU. Our weekly SOPY rankings measure the most productive quarterbacks, running backs and receivers from the state’s seven FBS teams. The rankings are cumulative but based weekly on average points per game, or total points divided by the number of games a player’s team has played. This keeps the comparison even because not all teams play the same number of games. Our simple formula awards a half-point for every passing yard and one point for every rushing or receiving yard, with six points for every TD scored or thrown.

The 2017 FINAL TOP 25 (including bowls):

RK Player, School-Pos.                            Avg.       Total (Games)

1. Quinton Flowers, SoFla qb                  229.13    2,749.5 (12)

2. McKenzie Milton, UCF qb                    223.19    2,901.5 (13)

3. Malik Rosier, Miami qb                       171.27     2,226.5 (13)

4. Devin Singletary, FAU rb                     165.79     2,321 (14)

5. Alex McGough, FIU qb                        135.08     1,756 (13)

6. Jason Driskel, FAU qb                         118.25    1,655.5 (14)

7. Cam Akers, FSU rb                             100.27    1,303.5 (13)

8. Tre’Quan Smith, UCF rec                     98.31    1,278 (13)

9. Travis Homer, Miami rb                        95.69    1,244 (13)

10. James Blackman, FSU qb                   91.54    1,190 (13)

11. Marquez Valdes-Scantling, SoFla rec  85.75    1,029 (12)

12. Darius Tice, SoFla rb                         85.17    1,022 (12)

13. D’Ernest Johnson, SoFla rb                83.58    1,003 (12)

14. Adrian Killins, UCF rb                        79.62    1,035 (13)

15. Jacques Patrick, FSU rb                    73.92       961 (13)

16. Thomas Owens, FIU rec                    72.73       945.5 (13)

17. Feleipe Franks, Florida qb                71.27       784 (11)

18. Alex Gardner, FIU rb                         69.00      897 (13)

19. Otis Anderson, UCF rec                    68.23       887 (13)

20. Lamical Perrine, Florida rb               63.36      697 (11)

21. Tyre McCants, SoFla rec                   63.17      758 (12)

22. Willie Wright, FAU rec                      59.86      838 (14)

23. Dredrick Snelson, UCF rec                58.46      760 (13)

24. Braxton Berrios, Miami rec               57.00      741 (13)

25. Malik Davis, Florida rb                     54.18      596 (11)

Cote’s State of the State final rankings: 1. UCF (13-0); 2. Miami (10-3); 3. South Florida (10-2); 4. FAU (11-3); 5. Florida State (7-6); 6. FIU (8-5); 7. Florida (4-7).

LATEST BACK IN MY DAY: APPLE WATCHES!: Here  it is, from yesterday's LeBatard Show:


Select recent columns: Canes' Late Swoon, OB Loss Don't Erase the Progress. Also: Where The Swagger Was BornStanton Had All the Power -- And Used ItDo We Trust Jeter To Fix Marlins?Adam Gase Must Find A WayTruex Jr. Takes Trophy, But Dale Jr. Wins The DayA QB, a Crisis & a Father's Love. The Hurricanes Are Back; Deal With It, AmericaCanes-Irish: Game For The Ages. Appreciate Perfection -- PeriodThe Godfather SpeaksLatest Drama in Bizarre, Trying SeasonBack On Track & Ready To Roar. Jeter Betting On JeterHope That Wasn't GoodbyeWade Will End Where He BelongsLarranaga Has Canes Flying High, Now ThisRegret, Tears & a Legacy's Dark Shadow. Specials: Thank You, Mae RibackThank You, Edwin Pope.

Revisit our blog often because we update and add to our latest posts throughout the day.

Twitter @gregcote

November 16, 2017

Dolphins' Cutler makes big leap in latest Herald NFL QB rankings; plus Canes No. 3 in CFP, Pix 'n Fantasy results, updated SOPY standings, new 'Back In My Day' video & more

GREG COTE'S RANDOM EVIDENCE BLOG: MIAMI. SPORTS. AND BEYOND.

1) It is THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 16. Dolphins approval rating sinks to new season low in latest Dolfan Satisfaction Meter. See previous blogpost for details. 2) Know any people who are (still) serious Dolfans? Surprise and delight them with our book on club's first half-century. Click Fins At 50. 3) In The Previous Blogpost (ITPB): Dolphins collapse in Carolina with DSM poll, Hot Button Top 10 & more. 4) Join us on Twitter @gregcote. Also Facebook, Instagram, Periscope and Snapchat.

Tonight's Steelers-Titans pick: Two division leaders on four-game win streaks. Wow. A Thursday night football game worth watching! Click Thursday Gem for our predix capsule.

No. 3 in CFP a great spot for Hurricanes: Miami being raked behind Clemson is a huge benefit to the Canes. Click CFP Does Canes A Favor to read my latest column. And click The Mark 'n Manny Show for my previous column on Canes.

BRADY RETAKES LEAD, CUTLER MOVES UP / HERALD QB RANKINGS / WEEK 10: Patriot Tom Brady takes advantage of Alex Smith's Chiefs bye week to regain Jcthe season lead after Week 10 of the Miami Herald’s NFL quarterback rankings. The Rams' Jared Goff wins the week with a 44.75-point game, edging Brady. Meanwhile Miami's Jay Cutler (pictured) moves up five big spots to No. 21 overall, putting him in position to crack the Top 20 chart this week. This is the 20th season of our Passer Success System (PASS) rankings, which began in 1998. Our formula is simple and unchanged since its inception, factoring accuracy, yardage, TD-interception ratio and team result. Most major ranking systems such as the NFL's and ESPN's are complicated and percentile based, allowing QBs who miss half a season to still win a title, while our system is cumulative, rewarding players who are consistently productive and avoid injury or benching. Because the rankings are cumulative, players on a bye week (such as Smith in Week 10) take a temporary hit that evens out over the course of a season.

HERALD NFL QB RANKINGS / Top 20 plus Dolphins

RK LW Player, Team               Wk10   Season

1     2  Tom Brady, NE              43.30   345.35

2     1  Alex Smith, KC              BYE     318.20

3     3  Drew Brees, NO            25.20   312.90

4     7  Russell Wilson, SEA       34.90   281.15

5     5  Kirk Cousins, WAS         23.35   273.70

6     6  Josh McCown, NYJ        20.10   270.10

7     4  Carson Wentz, PHI        BYE     268.10

8     8  Matthew Stafford, DET 31.45   267.05

9     9  Matt Ryan, ATL             33.75   257.60

10  12 Jared Goff, LAR            44.75   254.50

11  10 Dak Prescott, DAL         18.80   237.70

12  16 Cam Newton, CAR         36.70   233.60

13  17 Eli Manning, NYG           38.65  230.65

14  15 Ben Roethlisberger, PIT  26.80  223.90

15  19t Case Keenum, MIN        39.20  220.70

16  11 Derek Carr, OAK             BYE    217.70

17  14 Philip Rivers, LAC          19.75  217.15

18  13 Tyrod Taylor, BUF           -0.20  202.20

19  19t Jacoby Brissett, IND     18.10  199.60

20  25 Andy Dalton, CIN           24.25  195.20

21  26 Jay Cutler, MIA              20.65  189.95

40  39 Matt Moore, MIA            DNP     29.20

Bubble: Cutler, MIA, 189.95. Week 10 Best: Goff, LAR, 44.75 (25-37, 355, 3-0 in win). Week 10 Worst: Taylor, BUF, minus-0.20 (9-18, 56, 0-1 in loss).

FripixNFL PIX 'N FANTASY: WEEK 10 RESULTS: Every week in the blog I tell you know how I did the previous NFL weekend with my Miami herald predictions and with my Greg's Lobos team in the LeBatard Show fantasy league. WEEK 10Herald picks: Mixed results again. Went a very solid 11-3 straight-up but a terrible 5-9 against despite an Upset of the Week bull's-eye ("Aawwk!") on Bucs over Jets. Also had Packers-with-points over Bears. Got a bit unlucky in missing two games by a half-point each. Greg's Lobos: Loss. Lobos fell to 6-4 (still tied for third in a 14-team league) with a tough 102.1-99.5 loss to Domonique Foxworth. Had nobody better than Todd Gurley's 19.6 points. Still had a shot with two in play Monday night, but Jarvis Landry and Graham Gano fell just short for me. #GurleyMen #GoLobosGo

SOPY RANKINGS / WEEK 11: CANES' HOMER CLIMBS CHART: Miami Hurricanes quarterback Malik Rosier maintains third place but loses ground to the leaders Sopywhile UM running back Travis Homer rises two spots to No. 6 in the race for the Herald's 2017 State Offensive Player of the Year award. QBs Quinton Flowers of South Florida and McKenzie Milton of UCF are in a virtual dead heat for the No. 1 spot. Our weekly rankings measure the most productive quarterbacks, running backs and receivers from the state's seven FBS teams: Miami, Florida, Florida State, FIU, FAU, UCF and South Florida. The rankings are cumulative but based weekly on average points per game: Total points divided by number of games a player's team has played. This keeps the comparison even because not all teams have played the same number of games at the same time. Our simple formula awards a half-point for every passing yard and one point for every rushing or receiving yard, with six points for every TD scored or thrown.

SOPY Top 10 entering Week 12:

RK LW Player, School-Pos.                          Average  Total points (Games)

1    1  Quinton Flowers-SoFla qb                 208.06    1,872.5 / 9

2    2  McKenzie Milton-UCF qb                   207.33    1,866 / 9

3    3  Malik Rosier-Miami qb                       188.94    1,700.5 / 9

4    4  Devin Singletary-FAU rb                    167.10     1,671 / 10

5    5  Alex McGough-FIU qb                        136.83    1,231.5 / 9

6    8  Travis Homer-Miami rb                      113.00    1,017 / 9

7    6  Cam Akers-FSU rb                             107.83       970.5 / 9

8    7  Thomas Owens-FIU rec                      105.06      945.5 / 9

9    9  Marquez Valdes-Scantling-SoFla rec     96.11      865 / 9

10  -- Tre'Quan Smith-UCF rec                       94.44      850 / 9

Bubble: Darius Tice-SoFla rb, 94.11. Other team leader: Feleipe Franks-Florida qb, 68.33. Week 11 best: Milton-UCF qb, 225.5 points. Season best: Flowers-SoFla qb, 341.5 points (W10).

Cote's State of the State rankings: 1. Miami (9-0); 2. UCF (9-0); 3. South Florida (8-1); 4. Florida State (3-6); 5. FAU (7-3); 6. Florida (3-6); 7. FIU (6-3).

LATEST 'BACK IN MY DAY': UNNECESSARY AUTOMATION!: On self-parking cars, automatic doors and moving walkways. Not my best BIMD, but they can't all be, right?

Revisit our blog often because we update and add to our latest posts throughout the day.

Twitter @gregcote

November 10, 2017

Ranking Top 10 Hurricanes wins since last national championship, and why beating Notre Dame would be No. 1; plus Dolphins-Panthers and other NFL Week 10 picks, Cutler wins Week 9 passing title, Owl crashes SOPY party, Pix 'n Fantasy results & more

GREG COTE'S RANDOM EVIDENCE BLOG: MIAMI. SPORTS. AND BEYOND.

1) It is FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 10. Know any people who are serious Dolfans? Surprise and delight them with our book on club's first half-century. Click Fins At 50. 2) In The Previous Blogpost (ITPB): Dolphins fall to Oakland with DSM poll, Hot Button Top 10 & more. 3) Join us on Twitter @gregcote. Also Facebook, Instagram, Periscope and Snapchat.

MiandMiami-Notre Dame Week: In my latest column I name the Top 10 Miami Hurricanes football wins of the post-dynasty era (since the last national title in 2001) and declare that beating the Fighting Irish here Saturday night would top them all. Click on Canes-Irish: Game For The Ages.  

FripixUPSET BIRD DAY IN AMERICA! NFL WEEK 10 PICKS: I THINK I SPRAINED AN ANKLE JUMPING OFF THE DOLPHINS BANDWAGON: After mistakenly picking the Dolphins to win the past two games, I'm done thinking they'll rise to the prime-time occasion. Click on Week 10 Gems for my picks on Dolphins-Panthers Monday nighter, Game of the Week (Saints-Bills), Upset of the Week (Jets-Buccaneers: "Aawwk!") and the rest. Our week got off to a nifty start last night. We said Seahawks would cover a 5-1/2-point line at Arizona, 24-16, and Seattle won 22-16.

SMOKIN'!: DOLPHINS' CUTLER WINS WEEK 9 PASSING TITLE / HERALD QB RANKINGS / WEEK 9: The Dolphins’ Jay Cutler scored a 50.55-point game to lead Cutlerall passers in Week 9 of the Miami Herald’s NFL quarterback rankings, while the Chiefs’ Alex Smith overtook Patriot Tom Brady for the overall season lead. This is the 20th season of our Passer Success System (PASS) rankings, which began in 1998. Our formula is simple and unchanged since its inception, factoring accuracy, yardage, TD-interception ratio and team result. Most major ranking systems such as the NFL's and ESPN's are complicated and percentile based, allowing QBs who miss half a season to still win a title, while our system is cumulative, rewarding players who are consistently productive and avoid injury or benching. Because the rankings are cumulative, players on a bye week (such as Brady in Week 9) take a temporary hit that evens out over the course of a season.

HERALD NFL WEEK QB RANKINGS / Top 20 plus Dolphins

RK  LW  Player, Team                        WK9     SEASON

1     2    Alex Smith, KC                     32.15    318.20

2     1    Tom Brady, NE                      BYE       302.05

3     3    Drew Brees, NO                    41.15    287.70

4     4    Carson Wentz, PHI                29.95    268.10

5     7    Kirk Cousins, WAS                 28.35     250.35

6     6    Josh McCown, NYJ                23.00     250.00

7     5    Russell Wilson, SEA               17.85     246.25

8   11    Matthew Stafford, DET          48.05     235.60

9   10    Matt Ryan, ATL                     28.65     223.85

10  12   Dak Prescott, DAL                 32.45     218.90

11  13   Derek Carr, OAK                    32.00     217.70

12  21   Jared Goff, LAR                    38.55     209.75

13  22   Tyrod Taylor, BUF                  38.25     202.40

14   8    Philip Rivers, LAC                  BYE       197.40

15   9    Ben Roethlisberger, PIT          BYE       197.10

16 14    Cam Newton, CAR                 13.85     196.90

17 19    Eli Manning, NYG                   18.00     192.00

18 15    Aaron Rodgers, GB                 DNP       182.25

19t 25   Jacoby Brissett, IND              36.40      181.50

19t 16   Case Keenum, MIN                 BYE        181.50

26  29   Jay Cutler, MIA                      50.55      169.30

39  37   Matt Moore, MIA                    DNP          29.20

Bubble: tie, Carson Palmer ARI and Deshaun Watson HOU, both 180.95. Week 9 Best: Cutler MIA 50.55 (34-42, 311, 3-0 in loss). Week 9 Worst: Jameis Winston TB 4.35 (7-13, 67, 0-0 in loss).

FripixNFL PIX 'N FANTASY: WEEK 9 RESULTS: Every week in the blog I tell you know how I did the previous NFL weekend with my Miami Herald predictions and with my Greg's Lobos team in the LeBatard Show fantasy league. WEEK 9Herald picks: Mixed results. Went an awful 6-7 straight-up as my struggles there continued, but fashioned a solid 7-5-1 against the spread  including two exact-score bull's-eyes in Titans winning 23-20 and Panthers 20-17. Greg's Lobos: Win! Lobos rose to 6-3 with a 120.3-78.3 rout of Billy, fueled by 25.6 points from Matt Forte and 24.4 from Todd Gurley. #ReturnOfTheGurleyMen #GoLobosGo

SOPY STANDINGS / WEEK 10: AN OWL CRASHES THE PARTY, ENTERS 'STATE HEISMAN' RACE: It's been a three-man race all season for the Herald's 2017 State SopyOffensive Player of the Year award -- the "state Heisman." Well, make it four now. Add Florida Atlantic running back Devin Singletary to the quarterback troika of South Florida's Quinton Flowers, UCF's McKenzie Milton and Miami's Malik Rosier. All had huge Week 10 performances, with Flowers overtaking the No. 1 spot with a season-high 341.5-point game, Singletary scoring 287, Milton 262 and Rosier 215.5. Also in the 200 club: Florida State RB Cam Akers with 229. Our weekly rankings measure the most productive quarterbacks, running backs and receivers from the state's seven FBS teams: Miami, Florida, Florida State, FIU, FAU, UCF and South Florida. The rankings are cumulative but based weekly on average points per game: Total points divided by number of games a player's team has played. This keeps the comparison even because not all teams have played the same number of games at the same time. Our simple formula awards a half-point for every passing yard and one point for every rushing or receiving yard, with six points for every TD scored or thrown.

SOPY Top 10 entering Week 11:

RK   LW Player, School-Pos.                            Average / Total (Games)

1      3   Quinton Flowers-SoFla qb                  208.06 1,872.5 / 9

2      1   McKenzie Milton-UCF qb                    205.06 1,640.5 / 8

3      2   Malik Rosier-Miami qb                       197.00 1,576 / 8

4      4   Devin Singletary-FAU rb                     173.11 1,558 / 9

5      5   Alex McGough-FIU qb                        132.00 1,056 / 8

6      9   Cam Akers-FSU rb                             113.94 911.5 / 8

7      6   Thomas Owens-FIU rec                      107.31 858.5 / 8

8      7   Travis Homer-Miami rb                      105.88 847 / 8

9     --    Marquez Valdes-Scantling-SoFla rec     96.11 865 / 9

10   --    Adrian Killins, UCF rb                          95.63 765 / 8

Bubble: Darius Tice-SoFla rb, 94.11. Other team leader: Malik Davis-Florida rb, 74.50. Week 10 best: Flowers-SoFla qb, 341.5. Season best: Flowers-SoFla qb, 341.5 points (W10).

Cote's State of the State rankings: 1. Miami (8-0); 2. UCF (8-0); 3. South Florida (8-1); 4. Florida State (3-5); 5. Florida (3-5); 6. FIU (6-2); 7. FAU (6-3).

Revisit our blog often because we update and add to our latest posts throughout the day.

Twitter @gregcote

November 02, 2017

On Dolphins' Jay Ajayi trade: Poll. Vote now!; plus Herald NFL QB rankings, Bills-Jets pick, Stephen Ross' big win, NFL Pix 'n Fantasy results, new Back In My Day video, updated SOPY standings (Canes' Rosier makes his move), a message for UM fans & more

GREG COTE'S RANDOM EVIDENCE BLOG: MIAMI. SPORTS. AND BEYOND.

1) It is THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 2. Click Thursday Gem for my pick on tonight's Bills-Jets Thursday Night Football game. 2) Know any people who are serious Dolfans despite last Thursday? Surprise and delight them with our book on club's first half-century. Click Fins At 50. 3) In The Previous Blogpost (ITPB): Canes win at North Carolina with CSM poll, Hot Button Top 10 , state Collball Week 9, The List (college coach-salaries) & more. 4) Join us on Twitter @gregcote. Also Facebook, Instagram, Periscope and Snapchat.

Miami, Stephen Ross win big: Miami and Hard Rock Stadium are awarded the 2020-season college football national championship game and it's a huge win for the city, Stephen Ross and (maybe) the Hurricanes. Click Miami Wins Again for my latest column.

Dolphins' Jay Ajayi trade: Dumb!: Miami traded its young, really good No. 1 running back and got in exchange the NFL equivalent of a tackling sled and a box of kicking tees. Dumb. Dumb! Dumbdumbdumb. Click How to Make a Bad Offense Worse for my column.

A message for Hurricanes fans: Quit finding fault at 7-0: Desperate Gators turn to Randy Shannon. Embarrassed Seminoles are 2-5. Is this really the season you want to look at Hurricanes' 7-0 record and complain it hasn't been dominant enough? Click Appreciate Perfection -- Period.

JayaON DOLPHINS' JAY AJAYI TRADE: YAY OR NAY? VOTE NOW: I have had my say. The link to my column is just above here. I think the Dolphins trading their top young running back and getting next to nothing in return made a bad offense worse, erased somebody the team should have made a part of its future, and was just plain dumb. No spinning it. No yeah-buts. No equivocation. DUMB! But that's just me. Now have your say:

BRADY OVERTAKES SMITH FOR SEASON LEAD / HERALD QB RANKINGS / WEEK 8Miami’s favorite quarterback -- not -- has
Tbradyovertaken first place after Week 8 in the Miami Herald's latest NFL quarterback season rankings. That would be the Patriots’ Tom Brady (pictured) surpassing the Chiefs’ Alex Smith, who has led all but one week this season. Seattle’s Russell Wilson climbs to fifth place overall on the strength of a 47.60-point week that gave Wilson his second straight weekly title. This is the 20th season of our Passer Success System (PASS) rankings, which began in 1998. Our formula is simple and unchanged since its inception, factoring accuracy, yardage, TD-interception ratio and team result. Most major ranking systems such as the NFL's and ESPN's are complicated and percentile based, allowing QBs who miss half a season to still win a title, while our system is cumulative, rewarding players who are consistently productive and avoid injury or benching. Because the rankings are cumulative, players on a bye week take a temporary hit that evens out over the course of a season.

RK LW Player, Team                  Wk8       Season

1     2 Tom Brady, NE                  41.65     302.05

2     1 Alex Smith, KC                 15.10     286.05

3     4 Drew Brees, NO               37.95      246.55

4     3 Carson Wentz, PHI           22.55      238.15

5   10 Russell Wilson, SEA           47.60     228.40

6     6 Josh McCown, NYJ           37.85      227.00

7     5 Kirk Cousins, WAS             26.15     222.00

8     7 Philip Rivers, LAC             14.60     197.40

9   12 Ben Roethlisberger, PIT     23.85     197.10

10 16 Matt Ryan, ATL                 30.70     195.20

11 19 Matthew Stafford, DET     30.15      187.55

12 14 Dak Prescott, DAL             18.15     186.45

13 18 Derek Carr, OAK               25.65      185.70

14 15 Cam Newton, CAR            16.70      183.05

15  8 Aaron Rodgers, GB             BYE       182.25

16 21 Case Keenum, MIN            33.40     181.50

17t 20 Deshaun Watson, HOU     31.10     180.95

17t  9 Carson Palmer, ARI           BYE       180.95

19 11 Eli Manning, NYG              BYE       174.00

20 17 Jameis Winston, TB          8.50       172.65

29 29 Jay Cutler, MIA                 DNP       118.75

37 38 Matt Moore, MIA              8.80         29.20

Bubble: Jared Goff, LAR, 171.20. Week 8 best: Wilson, SEA, 47.60 (26-41, 452, 4-1 in win). Week 8 worst: Mitch Trubisky, CHI, 1.20 (14-32, 164, 0-1 in loss).

NFL PIX 'N FANTASY: WEEK 8 RESULTS: Every week in the blog I tell you know how I did the previous NFL weekend with my FripixMiami Herald predictions and with my Greg's Lobos team in the LeBatard Show fantasy league. WEEK 8Herald picks: Disappointing. Went an OK 9-4 straight-up and a poor 5-8 against the spread. That included a huge misfire in believing Dolphins would win at Baltimore. Greg's Lobos: Lobos sank to 5-3 (still tied for second in the league) with a 83.3 to 66.6 loss to Roy. Is it even possible to score fewer points? We got bitten by the bye bug bad. Still, no excuses. Never a good sign when your leading score is tight end Kyle Rudolph with 14.7 points. #GoLobosGo

SOPY STANDINGS / WEEK 9: MIAMI'S ROSIER JUMPS TO 2ND IN 'STATE HEISMAN' RACE: Malik Rosiers' 216-point game at North Carolina (second-best among state FBS schools this past weekend) lifted him one spot to second place, now narrowly trailing only UCF's McKenzie SopyMilton, in the race for the Herald's 2017 State Offensive Player of the Year award -- the "state Heisman." Devin Singletary's 279-point game for FAU, a statewide season high, solidified his hold on fourth place. Our weekly rankings measure the most productive quarterbacks, running backs and receivers from the state's seven FBS teams: Miami, Florida, Florida State, FIU, FAU, UCF and South Florida. The rankings are cumulative but based weekly on average points per game: Total points divided by number of games a player's team has played. This keeps the comparison even because not all teams have played the same number of games. Our simple formula awards a half-point for every passing yard and one point for every rushing or receiving yard, with six points for every TD scored or thrown.

SOPY Top 10 entering Week 10:

RK  LW  Player, School-Pos.                      Average        Total (Games)

1     1   McKenzie Milton-UCF qb               196.93         1,378.5 (7)

2     3   Malik Rosier-Miami qb                  194.36          1,360.5 (7)

3     2   Quinton Flowers-SoFla qb             191.38         1,531 (8)

4     4   Devin Singletary, FAU-rb               158.88         1,271 (8)

5     5   Alex McGough-FIU qb                   132.93            930.5 (7)

6     6   Thomas Owens-FIU rec                 111.64           781.5 (7)

7     7   Travis Homer-Miami rb                 103.71           726 (7)

8     9    Darius Tice-SoFla rb                      98.13           785 (8)

9     8   Cam Akers-FSU rb                          97.50           682.5 (7)

10  --   D'Ernest Johnson-SoFla rb               90.13           721 (8)

Bubble: Marquez Valdes-Scantling-SoFla rec, 88.38. Other team leader: Malik Davis-Florida rb, 85.14. Week 9 best: Singletary-FAU rb, 279 points. Season best: Singletary-FAU rb, 279 points (W9).

Cote's State of the State rankings: 1. Miami (7-0); 2. UCF (7-0); 3. South Florida (7-1); 4. Florida (3-4); 5. Florida State (2-5); 6. FIU (5-2); 7. FAU (5-3).

LATEST 'BACK IN MY DAY': HALLOWEEN!: In our latest LeBatard Show BIMD rant I lay out my rules for Halloween. How many did you observe followed or broken on your street last night?

Select other recent columns: Along For the Ride On the Road to 'Back' (UM at7-0). Dolphins Debacle (quick hits 40-0 loss in Baltimore). Time Is Right For Dolphins To Prove Doubters Wrong (on three straight prime-time games). The Godfather Speaks (Pat Riley exclusive). Also: Latest Drama in Bizarre, Trying SeasonIt Isn't Just CutlerBack On Track & Ready To Roar. Jeter Betting On JeterHope That Wasn't GoodbyeChasing HistoryWade Will End Where He BelongsLarranaga Has Canes Flying High, Now ThisRegret, Tears & a Legacy's Dark Shadow. Really Good or God-Awful, Cutler Won't Be DullA Perspective On Sports As a Hurricane Hits. Specials: Thank You, Mae RibackThank You, Edwin Pope.

Revisit our blog often because we update and add to our latest posts throughout the day.

Twitter @gregcote

October 25, 2017

See where Dolphins' Matt Moore debuts in latest Herald NFL QB rankings; plus NFL Pix 'n Fantasy Week 7 results (Lobos win again!), latest SOPY standings show Canes' Rosier in 3-way fight for 'state Heisman' & more

GREG COTE'S RANDOM EVIDENCE BLOG: MIAMI. SPORTS. AND BEYOND.

1) It is WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 25. Sorry again I had to miss yesterday's LeBatard Show because of illness. Hope to be back on next Tuesday. 2) See previous blogpost for results of latest Dolfan Satisfaction Meter postgame poll. It's a season best. 3) Know any people who are serious Dolfans? Surprise and delight them with our book on club's first half-century. Learn more or order at Fins At 50. 4) In The Previous Blogpost (ITPB): Dolphins beat Jets with DSM poll, Hot Button Top 10 & more. 5) Join us on Twitter @gregcote. Also Facebook, Instagram, Periscope and Snapchat.

SMITH MAINTAINS LEAD OVER BRADY, DOLPHINS' MOORE DEBUTS / HERALD QB RANKINGS / WEEK 7: The Seahawks' Russell Wilson wins Week 7 honors with Mattmoorea 45.70-point game, edging Tampa's Jameis Winston by less than one point, in the Miami Herald's latest NFL quarterback rankings. Chiefs' Alex Smith maintains his overall season lead over Patriots' Tom Brady. Now-injured Jay Cutler holds steady in 29th place overall, while Miami starter-for-bow Matt Moore (pictured) debuts in 38th place. This is the 20th season of our Passer Success System (PASS) rankings, which began in 1998. Our formula is simple and unchanged since its inception, factoring accuracy, yardage, TD-interception ratio and team result. Most major ranking systems such as the NFL's and ESPN's are complicated and percentile based, allowing QBs who miss half a season to still win a title, while our system is cumulative, rewarding players who are consistently productive and avoid injury or benching. Because the rankings are cumulative, players on a bye week take a temporary hit that evens out over the course of a season.

MIAMI HERALD PASS RANKINGS / WEEK 7

RK   LW   Player, Team                     WK7       Season

1      1     Alex Smith, KC                   40.10      270.95

2      2     Tom Brady, NE                    36.45      260.40

3      4     Carson Wentz, PHI              36.40      215.60

4      6     Drew Brees, NO                  34.55      208.60

5     11    Kirk Cousins, WAS                41.15      195.85

6      7     Josh McCown, NYJ              23.45      189.15

7      9     Philip Rivers, LAC               24.15      182.80

8      3     Aaron Rodgers, GB              DNP        182.25

9      5     Carson Palmer, ARI              5.10       180.95

10   18     Russell Wilson, SEA            45.70      180.80

11    8      Eli Manning, NYG                8.70       174.00

12   15     Ben Roethlisberger, PIT      26.20      173.25

13   14     Jared Goff, LAR                 23.75      171.20

14   17     Dak Prescott, DAL              32.70      168.30

15   12     Cam Newton, CAR             12.55       166.35

16   16     Matt Ryan, ATL                  27.65       164.50

17   23     Jameis Winston, TB           45.20       164.15

18   22     Derek Carr, OAK                40.85       160.05

19   10     Matthew Stafford, DET       BYE         157.40

20   13     Deshaun Watson, HOU        BYE         149.85

29   29     Jay Cutler, MIA                 19.90        118.75

38   --      Matt Moore, MIA               20.40          20.40

Bubble: Case Keenum, MIN, 148.10. Week 7 best: Wilson, SEA, 45.70 (27-39, 334, 3-0 in win). Week 7 worst: Drew Stanton, ARI, minus-3.90 (5-14, 62, 0-1 in loss).

NFL PIX 'N FANTASY: WEEK 7 RESULTS: Every Tuesday in the blog I tell you know how I did the previous NFL weekend with my Miami Fripix LobosHerald predictions and with my Greg's Lobos team in the LeBatard Show fantasy league. WEEK 7Herald picks: Mixed bag. Went 10-5 straight-up, not bad, but had to scramble to go 5-8-2 against the spread, not good, with two games pushing with 3-point lines. Had Browns with the points but not a lot else to brag about. Greg's Lobos: Lobos improved to 5-2, tied for second in the LeBatard Show league, with a 119.4 to 77.9 rout of Dan. Got 25.4 points from Todd Gurley -- the Gurley Men are back! -- 22.3 from Jarvis Landry, 19.1 from Drew Brees and an unexpected 17.3 from Latavius Murray on a last-minute flex play. That's coaching, baby! #GoLobosGo

SOPY STANDINGS / WEEK 8: 3-WAY BATTLE FOR 'STATE HEISMAN' INTENSIFIESMiami quarterback Malik Rosier remains a solid third in what continues to be Jdriskela three-way race for the Herald's 2017 State Offensive Player of the Year award -- the "state Heisman." UM running back Travis Homer also finds himself in the state Top 10, along with a pair of FIU Panthers. FAU quarterback Jason Driskel (pictured) won Week 8 honors with a 264.5-point game, elevating his season average to 92.00 -- just outside the Top 10. Rosier (229) and Quinton Flowers (219.5) also bagged 200-plus games to solidify their spots in the chart's upper reaches. Our weekly rankings measure the most productive quarterbacks, running backs and receivers from the state's seven FBS teams: Miami, Florida, Florida State, FIU, FAU, UCF and South Florida. The rankings are cumulative but based weekly on average points per game: Total points divided by number of games a player's team has played. This keeps the comparison level even because not all teams have played same number of games. Our simple formula awards a half-point for every passing yard and one point for every rushing or receiving yard, with six points for every TD scored or thrown.

SOPY Top 10 entering Week 9:

RK  LW  Player, School-Pos.                      Average        Total/Games

1     1   McKenzie Milton-UCF qb                201.33         1,208 / 6

2     2   Quinton Flowers-SoFla qb              192.79         1,349.5 / 7

3     3   Malik Rosier-Miami qb                   190.75         1,144.5 / 6

4     5   Devin Singletary, FAU-rb                141.71            992 / 7

5     4   Alex McGough-FIU qb                    134.50            807 / 6

6     6   Thomas Owens-FIU rec                  109.25            655.5 / 6

7     9   Travis Homer-Miami rb                   104.83            629 / 6

8     8   Cam Akers-FSU rb                          101.67            610 / 6

9    --   Darius Tice-SoFla rb                        99.00             693 / 7

10  --   Adrian Killins-UCF rb                       98.83             593 / 6

Bubble: D'Ernest Johnson-So Fla rb, 97.57. Other team leader: Malik Davis-Florida rb, 95.00. Week 6 best: Jason Driskel-FAU qb, 264.5 points. Season best: Flowers-SoFla qb, 276 points (W3).

Cote's State of the State rankings: 1. Miami (6-0); 2. South Florida (7-0); 3. UCF (6-0); 4. Florida (3-3); 5. Florida State (2-4); 6. FIU (4-2); 7. FAU (4-3).

Select recent columns: The Godfather Speaks (Pat Riley exclusive). Latest Drama in Bizarre, Trying Season (Dolphins' Snortgate). It Isn't Just Cutler (Dolphins' offense woes). Back On Track & Ready To Roar (Florida Panthers). Here's What I Find Funny, Cam (Cam Newton). Jeter Betting On Jeter (Marlins)Also: Hope That Wasn't GoodbyeChasing HistoryWade Will End Where He BelongsLarranaga Has Canes Flying High, Now ThisRegret, Tears & a Legacy's Dark Shadow. Really Good or God-Awful, Cutler Won't Be DullA Perspective On Sports As a Hurricane Hits. Stanton Chasing 1984Specials: Thank You, Mae RibackThank You, Edwin Pope.

Revisit our blog often because we update and add to our latest posts throughout the day.

Twitter @gregcote

October 12, 2017

Time for Dolphins to bench Jay Cutler? (Adam Gase won't take a public poll ... but I will). Vote now!; plus Eagles-Panthers pick, Herald Week 5 NFL QB rankings, our NFL Pix 'n Fantasy results, Snortgate column, Canes in latest SOPY standings & more

GREG COTE'S RANDOM EVIDENCE BLOG: MIAMI. SPORTS. AND BEYOND.

1) It is THURSDAY, OCTOBER 12. Know any people who are serious Dolfans despite recent performances? Surprise them with our book on club's first half-century. Learn more or order at Fins At 50. 2) In The Previous Blogpost (ITPB): Dolphins beat Titans with DSM poll, Fins line coach snorts way out of job, Hot Button Top 10 & more. 3) Join us on Twitter @gregcote. Also Facebook, Instagram, Periscope and Snapchat.

Dolphins: On Chris Foerster / Snortgate: Assistant coach appears in scandalous video, snorts his way out of job. Can't make this stuff up, folks. Click Latest Drama in Bizarre, Trying Season for my latest  column. On Jay Cutler, offense: Even winning, Dolphins offense continues woeful. Click It Isn't Just Cutler for my column from Sunday's game.

Thursday's Eagles-Panthers pick: Click on Thursday Gem for tonight's prediction capsule.

JaycutlerTHE JAY CUTLER POLL: TIME TO BENCH HIM?: You heard Dolfans in the stadium Sunday with their "We want Moore!" chants calling for backup quarterback Matt Moore to replace struggling starter Jay Cutler. You have heard media blowhards with no dog in the hunt lobbing opinions from afar, with Boomer Esiason, Tony Dungy, Rodney Harrison and others calling for a change. You also have heard coach Adam Gase saying he has not intention of a change, saying blame for offensive woes is everywhere and that Cutler is "way down the list" of problems. I agree with Gase, as I wrote in this column from Sunday's game. Moore might be a popular fix, but not necessarily a smart one, or a fix at all. Gase said he wouldn't be swayed by outside views, saying Sunday, "We're not going to take public polls." OK, maybe he isn't. But I am! I'm taking a public poll! Right here and now. No idea how this vote will turn out (well, I think I do), but in any case vote and be heard, even if Mr. Gase doesn't want to listen:

SMITH RETAKES SEASON LEAD FROM BRADY, CUTLER CONTINUES TO FALL / HERALD QB RANKINGS / WEEK 5: The Chiefs' AlexsmithAlex Smith (pictured) wins Week 5 honors with a 51.20-point game and nudges past Patriot Tom Brady for the season lead in the Miami Herald's latest NFL quarterback rankings. The Dolphins' Jay Cutler falls a few more spots, to 30th overall. As the season enters its heart we expand our weekly chart from a Top 15 to a Top 20. This is the 20th season of our Passer Success System (PASS) rankings, which began in 1998. Our formula is simple and unchanged since its inception, factoring accuracy, yardage, TD-interception ratio and team result. Most major ranking systems such as the NFL's and ESPN's are complicated and percentile based, allowing QBs who miss half a season to still win a title, while our system is cumulative, rewarding players who are consistently productive and avoid injury or benching. Because the rankings are cumulative, players on a bye week take a temporary hit that evens out over the course of a season.

MIAMI HERALD PASS RANKINGS / WEEK 5

RK   LW   Player, Team                     WK5       Season

1      2     Alex Smith, KC                   51.20      211.55

2      1     Tom Brady, NE                    40.15     201.10

3      4     Aaron Rodgers, GB             34.05     181.35

4     10    Carson Wentz, PHI             41.20     152.10

5      3     Drew Brees, NO                  BYE       148.75

6      5     Eli Manning, NYG               20.25     147.90

7     22    Cam Newton, CAR              50.75     143.85

8      8     Matthew Stafford, DET       28.45     143.80

9    13     Carson Palmer, ARI             29.55     136.70

10  14     Dak Prescott, DAL               32.55     135.60

11  11     Russell Wilson, SEA             25.90     135.10

12  18     Josh McCown, NYJ              33.70     133.00

13   6      Jared Goff, LAR                   5.40      132.25

14  16     Philip Rivers, LAC               21.90      123.25

15  19     Andy Dalton, CIN                26.40      123.00

16  21     Deshaun Watson, HOU         29.05     122.60

17  12     Ben Roethlisberger, PIT       11.60     120.45

18   7      Kirk Cousins, WAS                 BYE      117.20

19  23     Jameis Winston, TB             25.70     115.90

20   9      Matt Ryan, ATL                    BYE       111.45

30  27      Jay Cutler, MIA                    7.60       78.30

Bubble: Tyrod Taylor, BUF, 106.50. Week 5 best: Smith, KC, 51.20 (29-37, 324, 3-0 in win). Week 5 worst: DeShone Kizer, CLE, 0.35 (8-17, 87, 0-1 in loss).

NFL PIX 'N FANTASY: WEEK 5 RESULTS: Every Tuesday in the blog I tell you know how I did the previous NFL weekend with Fripix Lobosmy Miami Herald predictions and with my Greg's Lobos team in the LeBatard Show fantasy league. In Week 5: Herald picks: Embarrassment continues! -- It won't end. And it's getting worse. The season is kicking my ass. The Dolphins offense is outperforming me. I went a horrific 6-8 overall last week and an even-worse 3-10-1 against the spread. I'd elaborate, but it's too painful. If this ain't rock bottom, I'm in trouble. much else went right. Greg's Lobos: And the W Train keeps rollin'! -- Opposite of our picks, the Lobos improved to 4-1 (tied for the league lead) by beating Mike, 100-85.8. We had starter Drew Brees on a bye and backup Sam Bradford iffy to play, so we signed and started (are you ready?) Brian Hoyer. And got a team-leading 22.1 points from him. That's coaching, baby! #GoLobosGo

SOPY RANKINGS / WEEK 6: CANES' ROSIER MAINTAINS 3RD PLACE IN 'STATE HEISMAN' RACE: Miami quarterback Malik Rosier remains a solid third in what is Mmilton Sopylooking like a three-man race for the Herald's 2017 State Offensive Player of the Year award -- the "state Heisman." Canes running back Mark Walton is in fifth place but will tumble week by week now that he is done for the season with an ankle injury. Season frontrunner McKenzie Milton of UCF is pictured. Our weekly rankings measure the most productive quarterbacks, running backs and receivers from the state's seven FBS teams: Miami, Florida, Florida State, FIU, FAU, UCF and South Florida. The rankings are cumulative but based weekly on average points per game: Total points divided by number of games a player's team has played. This keeps the comparison level even because not all teams have played same number of games. Our simple formula awards a half-point for every passing yard and one point for every rushing or receiving yard, with six points for every TD scored or thrown.

SOPY Top 10 entering Week 7:

RK  LW  Player, School-Pos.                      Average        Total/Games

1    1    McKenzie Milton-UCF qb               213.13          852.5 / 4

2    2    Quinton Flowers-SoFla qb             190.40         952 / 5

3    3    Malik Rosier-Miami qb                  185.25          741 / 4

4    6    Devin Singletary-FAU rb               134.33          806 / 6

5    4    Mark Walton-Miami rb                  134.25          537 / 4

6    5    Alex McGough-FIU qb                   129.80          649 / 5

7    7    D'Ernest Johnson-SoFla rb            106.00          530 / 5

8    --    Thomas Owens-FIU rec                100.70          503.5 / 5

9    --    Tre'Quan Smith-UCF rec                 98.25          393 / 4

10   8    Darius Tice-SoFla rb                       97.00         485 / 5

Bubble: Cam Akers-FSU rb, 93.75. Other team leader: Malik Davis-Florida rb, 90.20. Week 6 best: Milton-UCF qb, 223 points. Season best: Flowers-SoFla qb, 276 points (Week 3).

Cote's State of the State rankings: 1. Miami (4-0); 2. South Florida (5-0); 3. UCF (4-0); 4. Florida (3-2); 5. Florida State (1-3); 6. FIU (3-2); 7. FAU (3-3).

Select other recent columns: Back On Track & Ready To Roar (Florida Panthers). Here's What I Find Funny, Cam (Cam Newton). Jeter Betting On Jeter (Marlins)Also: Hope That Wasn't GoodbyeChasing HistoryWade Will End Where He BelongsLarranaga Has Canes Flying High, Now ThisRegret, Tears & a Legacy's Dark Shadow. Really Good or God-Awful, Cutler Won't Be DullA Perspective On Sports As a Hurricane Hits. Stanton Chasing 1984Specials: Thank You, Mae RibackThank You, Edwin Pope.

Revisit our blog often because we update and add to our latest posts throughout the day.

Twitter @gregcote

October 04, 2017

ESPN says your Dolphins will finish 3-13. Oy!; plus my new Jeter column, Herald NFL Week 4 QB rankings, NFL W4 Pix 'n Fantasy results, Canes' Rosier rising in updated SOPY rankings & more

GREG COTE'S RANDOM EVIDENCE BLOG: MIAMI. SPORTS. AND BEYOND.

1) It is WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 4. See previous blogpost for results of latest Dolfan Satisfaction Meter poll. They ugly! 2) Know any people who are serious Dolfans despite the last two weeks' performance? Treat them to our book on club's first half-century. Learn more or order at Fins At 50. 3) In The Previous Blogpost (ITPB): Dolphins suck in London with DSM poll, Stanton ends at 59, sickening tragedy in Vegas, Hot Button Top 10 & more. 4) Join us on Twitter @gregcote. Also Facebook, Instagram, Periscope and Snapchat.

Derek Jeter says hello to Miami, makes no Marlins promises: My new column, from today's introductory press conference at which Jeter was making no promises about the future here of Giancarlo Stanton. Read Jeter Betting On Jeter to read.

DOLPHINS HEADED FOR 3-13 SEASON? HERE'S THE MAJOR OUTLET THAT PREDICTS IT: A major-outlet computer prediction model now has the Miami Dolphins with better than a 50 percent likelihood of winning in only two remaining games all season. Let's check the math. A current 1-2 record Sad1plus two more wins -- hang on, my calculator is smoking -- equals a 3-13 season. Or so predicts ESPN's Football Power Index. Sad2The FPI has the Fins favored (50%-plus) from here only this coming Sunday vs. Tennessee (52.3%) and Oct. 22 vs. the Jets (71.8%). And I'd remind that the Titans were seen as a dangerous "it" team before this past weekend's spanking, and the Jets recently clobbered Miami 20-7. To be fair, Miami's win probability is in the 40s in four games from here. It's all guesswork anyway. The point is, right now, a season topping out around 7-9 and capable of plunging to 3-13 seems likelier than a rally to a second straight playoff berth. Something as bad as the 3-13 FPI forecasts would put Miami in very interesting draft territory, with three quarterbacks -- USC's Sam Darnold, Wyoming's Josh Allen and UCLA's Josh Rosen -- routinely pegged for the top five overall. So. If Miami does finish as bad as this computer model spits out, the temptation to draft Ryan Tannehill's replacement could be intense. Hey, this is all speculation, of course. Premature. Maybe even reckless! Then again, when your team has scored two TDs in 12 quarters and but for luck would be 0-3, it helps to pass the time.

NFL PIX 'N FANTASY: WEEK 4 RESULTS: Every Tuesday in the blog I tell you know how I did the previous NFL weekend with my Miami Herald predictions Fripix Lobosand with my Greg's Lobos team in the LeBatard Show fantasy league. In Week 4: Herald picks: Embarrassing ... again! -- The sad Dolphins and I are running in lockstep, straight to hell. I again went a terrible 7-9 straight-up and added a decent but not great 7-8-1 against the spread. (Yes, I was a victim of KC's last-second score Monday night). Had Bills and Niners with the points but not much else went right. Greg's Lobos: Woo woo! The W Train keeps rollin'! -- The Lobos improved to 3-1 by whipping Amin Elhassan 137.1-84.2, led by a beastly 34.5 from beastly Todd Gurley, who's way out front in the Lobo of the Year race. We are the Gurley men!!! Also got 23.5 from Jordy Nelson and a pleasant-surprise 22.5 from flex-play Tyrell Williams.

BRADY NUDGES INTO LEAD OVER SMITH, CUTLER FALLS FURTHER / HERALD QB RANKINGS / WEEK 4: The man Miami Dolphins fans love to hate, the TbradyPatriots' Tom Brady, narrowly nudges past the Chiefs' Alex Smith for the season lead in the Miami Herald's NFL Week 4 quarterback rankings. The Dolphins' Jay Cutler -- not real popular with Miami fans at the moment, either -- slips a couple of more spots, to 27th overall. The Bengals' Andy Dalton wins the Week 4 title with a 51.30-point game, but after a slow start, that isn't enough to put him in the current Top 15 chart as he leaps from 30th place to 19th. This is the 20th season of our Passer Success System (PASS) rankings, which began in 1998. Our formula is simple and unchanged since its inception, factoring accuracy, yardage, TD-interception ratio and team result. Most major ranking systems such as the NFL's and ESPN's are complicated and percentile based, allowing QBs who miss half a season to still win a title, while our system is cumulative, rewarding players who are consistently productive and avoid injury or benching.

MIAMI HERALD PASS RANKINGS / WEEK 4

RK   LW   Player, Team                     WK4       Season

1     2     Tom Brady, NE                     40.35     160.95

2     1     Alex Smith, KC                    39.65     160.35 

3     4     Drew Brees, NO                  41.40      148.75

4     3     Aaron Rodgers, GB              35.95     147.30

5     7     Eli Manning, NYG                31.40     127.65

6     5     Jared Goff, LAR                  29.75     126.85

7     8     Kirk Cousins, WAS               21.00      117.20

8     9     Matthew Stafford, DET       22.45      115.35

9     6     Matt Ryan, ATL                   15.10     111.45

10  11     Carson Wentz, PHI             23.10      110.90

11  16     Russell Wilson, SEA            35.75     109.20

12  12     Ben Roethlisberger, PIT      21.80     108.85

13  21     Carson Palmer, ARI            37.85      107.15

14  13     Dak Prescott, DAL             22.60      103.05

15  10     Derek Carr, OAK                12.15      101.65

27  25     Jay Cutler, MIA                 17.20        70.70

Bubble: Philip Rivers, LAC, 101.35. Week 4 best: Andy Dalton, CIN, 51.30 (25-30, 286, 4-0 in win). Week 4 worst: Matt Cassel, TEN, minus-6.95 (4-10, 21, 0-2 in loss).

SOPY RANKINGS / WEEK 5: CANES' ROSIER RISING IN RACE FOR 'STATE HEISMAN'After a big, history-equaling week for college football in the state of MalikFlorida, two Miami Hurricanes place high in the Herald’s latest State Offensive Player of the Year (SOPY) rankings. All seven state FBS-level teams won this past weekend -- only the second time that has happened. The only other time the state rolled a 7-0 was Oct. 5, 2013. The state also has a record-tying four Sopyschools in the latest Associated Press Top 25: Miami 13th, South Florida 18th, Florida 21st and UCF entering at 25th. (What were the odds the one not ranked would be preseason No. 3 Florida State?). In our latest “state Heisman” offensive rankings UM’s Malik Rosier (pictured) bumps up to third off a 198-point week, while teammate Mark Walton sits fourth. Our weekly rankings measure the most productive quarterbacks, running backs and receivers from the state's seven FBS teams: Miami, Florida, Florida State, FIU, FAU, UCF and South Florida. The rankings are cumulative but based weekly on average points per game: Total points divided by number of games a player's team has played. This keeps the comparison level even because not all teams have played same number of games. Our simple formula awards a half-point for every passing yard and one point for every rushing or receiving yard, with six points for every TD scored or thrown.

SOPY Top 10 entering Week 6:

RK  LW  Player, School-Pos.                      Average        Total/Games

1    1    McKenzie Milton-UCF qb               209.83          629.5 / 3

2    3    Quinton Flowers-SoFla qb             190.40         952 / 5

3    4    Malik Rosier-Miami qb                  189.00          567 / 3

4    2    Mark Walton-Miami rb                  170.67          512 / 3

5    5    Alex McGough-FIU qb                   133.13          532.5 / 4

6    7    Devin Singletary, FAU-rb               120.20          601 / 5

7    9    D'Ernest Johnson, SoFla rb            106.00         530 / 5

8    8    Darius Tice-SoFla rb                       97.00         485 / 5

9    --   Adrian Killins-UCF rb                      96.67          290 / 3

10  6    Travis Homer-Miami rb                   90.67          272 / 3

Bubble: Malik Davis-Florida rb, 87.00. Other team leader: Auden Tate-FSU rec, 81.33. Week 5 best: Milton-UCF, 232.5 points. Season best: Flowers-SoFla, 276 points (Week 3).

Cote's State of the State rankings: 1. Miami (3-0); 2. South Florida (5-0); 3. Florida (3-1); 4. Florida State (1-2); 5. UCF (3-0); 6. FIU (3-1); 7. FAU (2-3).

TcasasTOP SOUTH FLORIDA PROSPECTS IN 2018 MLB DRAFT: Baseball America is out with its Top 50 high-school prospects in the 2018 MLB Draft, and it includes five kids with local high-school or college ties: No. 14 overall is 1B Triston Casas (pictured) of Plantation American Heritage, committed to Miami; No. 15 is RHP Slade Cecconi from Winter Park, committed to Miami; No. 23 is SS Xavier Edwards of Coconut Creek North Broward Prep; No. 40 is LHP J.P. Gates from Spring Hill, Fla., committed to Miami; and No. 47 is IF Raynel Delgado of Fort Lauderdale Calvary Christian, committed to FIU.

Revisit our blog often because we update and add to our latest posts throughout the day.

Twitter @gregcote

September 28, 2017

Trump vs. NFL: Poll. Vote now!; plus UM hoops scandal, R.I.P. Hefner, Herald NFL Week 3 QB rankings, new 'Back In My Day,' NFL Pix 'n Fantasy Week 3 results, 2 Canes Top 5 in latest SOPY standings & more

GREG COTE'S RANDOM EVIDENCE BLOG: MIAMI. SPORTS. AND BEYOND.

Lebpod1) It is THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 27. #HelpPuertoRicoNow. 2) Click on Toys! for my latest Back In My Day segment from the LeBatard Show. 3) Know any people who are serious Dolfans despite last week's performance? Treat them to our book on club's first half-century. Learn more or order at Fins At 50. 4) In The Previous Blogpost (ITPB): Dolphins crushed by Jets with DSM poll, Hot Button Top 10 & more. 5) Join us on Twitter @gregcote. Also Facebook, Instagram, Periscope and Snapchat.

"R.I.P., Hugh Hefner, Playboy founder, gone at 91. Red velvet smoking jackets are hanging at half-mast." --Greg Cote

Hurricanes men's basketball scandal: A member of Jim Larranaga's staff is implicated in the nationwide FBI investigation of corruption in college basketball recruiting. Click on Larranaga Has Canes Flying High, Now This to read my latest column. 

Bears-Packers pick: NFL Week 4 kicks off tonight at Lambeau Field with King Sport's oldest rivalry. Click on Thursday Gem for our prediction capsule.

Jose Fernandez tragedy: 1-year laterMy latest Sunday column reflects on the tragedy that rocked South Florida one year ago, and on one man's complicated legacy. Click on Regret, Tears & a Legacy's Dark Shadow to read.

TrumpathletesTRUMP VS. ATHLETE ACTIVISM. WHO'S RIGHT?: Some NFL players kneel during the National Anthem or in other ways protest police treatment of unarmed black men and other prejudice. President Donald Trump called such players a "son of a bitch" at an Alabama rally and suggested they should be required to stand or be "suspended or fired." I tackle this dense topic in today's latest column; click on Trump Is Wrong, Needs Lesson On What Freedom Means to read. My take: Not only do athletes have the right to not stand, they are doing so for a righteous cause. They are not being anti-American as Trump suggests. Their actions are not anti-country, flag, anthem or military. But that's just me. Your opinion is invited here:

SMITH-BRADY DEAD HEAT, CUTLER SLIPS / HERALD QB RANKINGS / WEEK 3: The Patriots' Tom Brady (pictured) wins Week 3 with a 53.90-point game, his Tbradysecond straight weekly title, to pull nearly even with the Chefs' Alex Smith for the overall season lead in the Miami Herald's NFL quarterback rankings. The Dolphins' Jay Cutler, off a below-par game, slips one spot to 25th but has played one fewer game than others in the chart, and these are cumulative ratings. This is the 20th season of our Passer Success System (PASS) rankings, which began in 1998. Our formula is simple and unchanged since its inception, factoring accuracy, yardage, TD-interception ratio and team result. Most major ranking systems such as the NFL's and ESPN's are complicated and percentile based, allowing QBs who miss half a season to still win a title, while our system is cumulative, rewarding players who are consistently productive and avoid injury or benching.

MIAMI HERALD PASS RANKINGS / WEEK 3
RK   LW   Player, Team                     WK3            Season
1        1     Alex Smith, KC                  29.75           120.70
2        8     Tom Brady, NE                   53.90           120.60
3        4     Aaron Rodgers, GB            40.65            111.35
4        6     Drew Brees, NO                40.00            107.35
5       14    Jared Goff, LAR                44.60              97.10
6        9     Matt Ryan, ATL                 29.70              96.35
7       16    Eli Manning, NYG              44.30              96.25
8       18    Kirk Cousins, WAS              52.25             96.20
9        3     Matthew Stafford, DET      21.20             92.90
10      2     Derek Carr, OAK                  9.90             89.50
11     11    Carson Wentz, PHI             27.80             87.80
12      7     Ben Roethlisberger, PIT     19.75              87.05
13     15    Dak Prescott, DAL             28.15              80.45
14     10    Trevor Siemian, DEN          14.95             77.45
15     22    Tyrod Taylor, BUF               35.65             74.10  
25     24    Jay Cutler, MIA                  19.00             53.50
    Bubble: Russell Wilson, SEA, 73.45. Week 3 best: Brady, NE, 53.90 (25-35, 378, 5-0 in win). Week 3 worst: Joe Flacco, BAL, minus-6.60 (8-18, 28, 0-2 in loss).

NFL PIX 'N FANTASY: WEEK 3 RESULTS: Every Tuesday in the blog I tell you know how I did the previous NFL weekend with my Miami Herald predictions and Fripix Loboswith my Greg's Lobos team in the LeBatard Show fantasy league. In Week 3: Herald picks: Embarrassing! -- And you thought the Dolphins were bad!? I went a terrible 7-9 straight-up and a woeful 4-10-2 against the spread. If this isn't my worst week all year, I'm in trouble. Did nail an outright upset with Colts over Browns and had two 'dogs with points in Giants and Saints, but, otherwise my week was exemplified by having the Lions beating the Falcons and having that bull's-eye snatched from me. Greg's Lobos: Back on the W Train! -- The Lobos improved to 2-1 by whipping Pablo Torre 119.4-99.5, led by Todd Gurley's big 37.9 points. He's early frontrunner for Lobo of the Year. We are the Gurley men!

SOPY RANKINGS / WEEK 4: TWO CANES IN FOUR-MAN RACE FOR 'STATE HEISMAN' LEAD: With Irma's upheaval past and full schedules back, the State
MwaltonOffensive Player of the Year (SOPY) rankings are heating up. What we like to call our ongoing "state Heisman" race show the top four players separated from Sopythe pack including a pair of Hurricanes as we enter Collball Week 5. UM running back Mark Walton (pictured) bumps up to No. 2 in the standings off a state-FBS-best 214-point game vs. Toledo. Our weekly rankings measure the most productive quarterbacks, running backs and receivers from the state's seven top-level FBS teams: Miami, Florida, Florida State, FIU, FAU, UCF and South Florida. The rankings are cumulative but based weekly on average points per game: Total points divided by number of games a player's team has played. This keeps the comparison level even because not all teams have played same number of games. Our simple formula awards a half-point for every passing yard and one point for every rushing or receiving yard, with six points for every TD scored or thrown. Here is the statewide SOPY Top 10 entering Week 5:

2017 SOPY WEEK 4 TOP 10

RK  LW  Player, School-Pos.                     Avg.        Total-Games

1    2    McKenzie Milton-UCF qb             198.50      397-2

2    3    Mark Walton-Miami rb                191.00      382-2

3    1    Quinton Flowers-SoFla qb           190.25     761-4

4    4    Malik Rosier-Miami qb                184.50      369-2

5    6    Alex McGough-FIU qb                 121.83      365.5-3

6    5    Travis Homer-Miami rb               111.50      223-2

7    --    Devin Singletary, FAU-rb            111.00      444-4

8   10    Darius Tice, SoFla-rb                 103.50      414-4

9    --    D'Ernest Johnson, SoFla-rb         101.25      405-4 

10  --    Auden Tate, FSU-rec                    95.50      191-2

Bubble: Tyrie Cleveland, Florida-rec, 92.33. Week 4 best: Walton, Miami, 214 points. Season best: Flowers, SoFla, 276 (Wk3).

Cote's State of the State rankings: 1. Miami (2-0), 2. South Florida (4-0), 3. Florida (2-1), 4. Florida State (0-2), 5. UCF (2-0), 6. FIU (2-1), 7. FAU (1-3).

Revisit our blog often because we update and add to our latest posts throughout the day.

Twitter @gregcote

September 21, 2017

Brady leaps, Cutler debuts in Herald Week 2 QB rankings; plus new Back In My Day video (Straws!), NFL Pix 'n Fantasy Week 2 results, SOPY Week 3 standings (new leader), Dolphins column on Parker/offensive potential, Hot Button Daily (Tue) & more

GREG COTE'S RANDOM EVIDENCE BLOG: MIAMI. SPORTS. AND BEYOND.

1) It is THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 21. Click on Straws! or our latest Back in My Day video from the LeBatard Show. Based on general reaction, it may be our most popular ever. 2) Florida Panthers opened preseason in Nashville this week with a doubleheader split vs. Predators. Hockey on, Heat soon, Dolphins underway, Marlins still going. Worlds collide! 3) Know any serious Dolfans? Treat them to our book on club's first half-century. Learn more or order here: Fins At 50. 4) In The Previous Blogpost (ITPB): Dolphins win opener in L.A. with season-debut DSM poll, Hot Button Top 10 & more. 5) Join us on Twitter @gregcote. Also Facebook, Instagram, Periscope and Snapchat.

Tonight's NFL pick: Click on Thursday Gem for our predix capsule on tonight's Rams-49ers game. 

Latest Dolphins column: Lost a bit amid the drama of Hurricane Irma and AWOL Lawrence Timmons, Sunday's opener hinted at how good this Dolphins offense and breakout star DeVante Parker might be. Click on Potential & Promise to read.

BRADY CATAPULTS, CUTLER DEBUTS / HERALD QB RANKINGS / WEEK 2: The Patriots' Tom Brady wins Week 2 with a 57.35-point game to catapult 18 spots to Jayc8th overall in the Miami Herald's NFL Week 2 quarterback rankings. The Chiefs' Alex Smith maintains his overall season lead. And the Dolphins' Jay Cutler (pictured) scores a solid 34.50-point game, eighth for this week, to land 24th in the overall chart. This is the 20th season of Passer Success System (PASS) rankings, which began in 1998. Our formula is simple and unchanged since its inception in 1998, factoring accuracy, yardage, TD-interception ratio and team result. Most major ranking systems such as the NFL's and ESPN's are complicated and percentile based, allowing QBs who miss half a season to still win a title, while our system is cumulative, rewarding players who are consistently productive and avoid injury or benching.
 
MIAMI HERALD PASS RANKINGS / WEEK 2
RK   LW   Player, Team                     WK2            Season
1        1     Alex Smith, KC                  34.55            90.95
2        6     Derek Carr, OAK               43.50            79.60
3        3     Matthew Stafford, DET      26.10            71.70
4        8t    Aaron Rodgers, GB          36.15            70.70
5       13    Philip Rivers, LAC             42.55             69.15
6        8t    Drew Brees, NO                32.80             67.35
7       10    Ben Roethlisberger, PIT    34.15             67.30
8       26    Tom Brady, NE                   57.35            66.70
9        7     Matt Ryan, ATL                  30.60             66.65
10     15    Trevor Siemian, DEN         37.55            62.50
11      4      Carson Wentz, PHI           23.65             60.00
12     14     Mike Glennon, CHI           29.05             54.70
13      2      Sam Bradford, MIN            DNP             53.30
14      5      Jared Goff, LAR               16.20              52.50
15     11      Dak Prescott, DAL           21.90             52.30
24     -–      Jay Cutler, MIA                 34.50             34.50
    Bubble: Eli Manning, NYG, 51.95. Week 2/season best: Brady, NE, 57.35 (30-39, 447, 3-0 in win). Week 2 worst: DeShone Kizer, CLE, minus-0.90  (15-31, 182, 0-3 in loss).
    Formula: Accuracy—Completions times two minus attempts. Ex: 17 for 28 = 6 points. Yardage—Five percent of total. Ex: 202 yards = 10.10 points. TD-interception ratio—Difference times three. Ex: Four TDs and one pick = 9 points. Team result—Winning QB of record = 5 points.

Fripix LobosNFL PIX 'N FANTASY: WEEK 2 RESULTS: Every Tuesday in the blog I'll tell you know how I did the previous NFL weekend with my Miami Herald predictions and with my Greg's Lobos team in the LeBatard Show fantasy league. In Week 2: Herald picks: Uneven -- We went 11-5 overall (pretty good) and 7-9 against the point spread (not so good). Nailed an outright upset with Broncos over Cowboys and had three other 'dogs with points: Bills, Dolphins and and Lions. Greg's Lobos: Tough luck = tough loss -- The Lobos lost to Sarah Spain 126.2-117.5. Had three guys in 20s led by Lobo of the Week Todd Gurley's 26.6 and still had a shot into Monday night but the killer was Jordy Nelson's early injury and 0 points. Normal game from Nelson or a few more touches from Theo Riddick and we win. If, if, if.

SOPY RANKINGS / WEEK 3: NEW LEADER AS SEASON CRAWLS OUT FROM UNDER IRMA: Only three of seven state FBS teams were in action this past weekend
Qflowersafter only two were the week before. But we have a new season leader in our blog's State Offensive Player of the Year (SOPY) rankings -- what we like to call our ongoing "state Heisman" race -- entering Week 4. That would be South Florida QB Quinton Flowers (pictured) out of Miami Jackson High, the defending champion. Our weekly rankings measure the most productive quarterbacks, running backs and receivers from the state's seven top-level FBS teams: Miami, Florida, Florida State, FIU, FAU, UCF and South Florida. The rankings are cumulative but based weekly on average points per game: Total points divided by number of games a player's team has played. This keeps the comparison level even because not all teams have played same number of games. Our simple formula awards a half-point for every passing yard and one point for every rushing or receiving yard, with six points for every TD scored or thrown. Here is the statewide SOPY Top 10 entering Week 4:

2017 SOPY WEEK 3 TOP 10

RK  LW  Player, School-Pos.                     Avg.

1    2    Quinton Flowers-SoFla qb           214

2    1    McKenzie Milton-UCF qb             208

3    3    Mark Walton-Miami rb                168

4    4    Malik Rosier-Miami qb                167.5

5    5    Travis Homer-Miami rb               133

6    6    Alex McGough-FIU qb                 131.25

7    7    Daniel Parr-FAU qb                     120

8    9    Deondre Francois-FSU qb            102

9    --    Dredrick Snelson, UCF-rec           98

10  --    Darius Tice, SoFla-rb                   95

Bubble: DeAndre McNeal-FAU rec, 91. Other team leader: Tyrie Cleveland-Fla rec, 79.5. Week 3 best: Flowers-SoFla qb, 276. Season best: Flowers-SoFla qb, 276.

Cote's State of the State rankings: 1. Florida State (0-1); 2. Miami (1-0); 3. South Florida (3-0); 4. Florida (1-1); 5. UCF (1-0); 6. FAU (1-1); 7. FIU (1-1).

HOT BUTTON DAILY: Today's sports events of most interest in SoFla:

We have discontinued the blog's Hot Button Daily. Hey, the bells 'n whistles come and go, right?

Revisit our blog often because we update and add to our latest posts throughout the day.

Twitter @gregcote

September 14, 2017

Let's laugh at Brady (while we can): Herald debuts QB rankings; plus my weekend with Irma, Texans-Bengals pick, NFL Week 1 Pix 'n Fantasy results, Marino documentary, SOPY rankings, Hot Button Daily (Thu) & more

GREG COTE'S RANDOM EVIDENCE BLOG: MIAMI. SPORTS. AND BEYOND.

1) It is THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 14. Happy to be back in the blog saddle after a few days knocked off by Hurricane Irma. 2) I refuse to believe the Indians have won 20 games in a row. Know it's true. Don't believe it. 3) Know any devoted Dolfans? Treat them to our book on club's first half-century. Learn more or order here: Fins At 50. 4) In The Previous Blogpost (ITPB): Sports' place in our lives as a hurricane hits, Upset Bird Day in America, Collball Week 2 & more. 5) Join us on Twitter @gregcote. Also Facebook, Instagram, Periscope and Snapchat.

Texans-Bengals pick: Two teams already desperate to bounce back from awful Week 1 performances. Only one will. Here's who: Click Thursday Night Gem.

Marino documentary debuts Friday: What I was first to tell you about a few months ago is ready to pop. NFL Films' "A Football Life" series stars Dolphins great Dan Marino in a documentary debuting this Friday -- Dan's 56th birthday -- at 9 p.m. on NFL Network. Yours truly was among people interviewed for the doc, although (I've seen the finished product) some of my best work was left on the cutting room floor (!).

The no-excuses challenge for Dolphins, Canes: Their seasons were born to a hurricane named Irma. Games were postponed or cancelled, schedules and plans disrupted. Now, the challenge for the Miami Dolphins and UM Hurricanes is to accept no excuses and make something special of what began in turmoil. Click on Storybook Ending Waits, But Can Dolphins Or Canes Write It? to read my latest column.

LET'S ALL MAKE FUN OF TOM BRADY (WHILE WE CAN) / HERALD QB RANKINGS / WEEK 1: The Chiefs' Alex Smith soars to the Week 1 crown with 56.40 Sadbradypoints, edging Viking Sam Bradford, as the Miami Herald launches its 20th season of Passer Success System (PASS) NFL quarterback rankings. But here's the fun part. Miami's Jay Cutler had a better week than the Patriots' Tom Brady. Cutler threw zero interceptions by virtue of Hurricane Irma's unexpected gift of a bye week, while Brady stumbles out the gate in 26th place (with 9.35 points) of 31 passers who had at least 10 attempts. Our formula is simple and unchanged since its inception in 1998, factoring accuracy, yardage, TD-interception ratio and team result. (The exact formula is detailed below). Most major ranking systems such as the NFL's and ESPN's are complicated and percentile based, allowing QBs who miss half a season to still win a title, while our system is cumulative, rewarding players who are consistently productive and avoid injury or benching. Here we go!
 
MIAMI HERALD PASS RANKINGS / WEEK 1
RK    '16    Player, Team                    Week 1/Season
1       16    Alex Smith, KC                    56.40
2         5    Sam Bradford, MIN              53.30
3         6    Matthew Stafford, DET        45.60
4       20    Carson Wentz, PHI              36.35
5       40    Jared Goff, LAR                  36.30
6        7     Derek Carr, OAK                 36.10
7        2     Matt Ryan, ATL                   36.05
8        1     Drew Brees, NO                  34.55
8        3     Aaron Rodgers, GB              34.55
10     15    Ben Roethlisberger, PIT       33.15
11      9     Dak Prescott, DAL               30.40
12     13     Eli Manning, NYG               28.00
13     19    Philip Rivers, LAC                26.60
14     52     Mike Glennon, CHI              25.65
15     24     Trevor Siemian, DEN           24.95
        Bubble: Tyrod Taylor, BUF, 23.20. Week 1/season best: Smith, KC, 56.40 (28-35, 368, 4-0 in win). Week 1/season worst: Andy Dalton, CIN, minus-2.50 (16-31, 170, 0-4 in loss).
        Herald PASS Championships: 7—Brees (2008-11, '14-016); 6—Peyton Manning (2000, '03-04, '06, '12-13); 2—Kurt Warner (1999, 2001); 1 each—Steve Young (1998), Rich Gannon (2002), Carson Palmer (2005) and Tom Brady (2007).
        Points formula: Accuracy—Completions times two minus attempts. Ex: 17 for 28 = 6 points. Yardage—Five percent of total. Ex: 202 yards = 10.10 points. TD-interception ratio—Difference times three. Ex: Four TDs and one pick = 9 points. Team result—Winning QB of record = 5 points.

 

SwaleMY WEEKEND WITH IRMA: Thanks to all our readers and listeners who expressed concerned as we bunkered in against Hurricane Irma. We sustained a bunch of tree and landscape damage but otherwise made out fine. Pictured is a pile of felled trees and foliage on my swale, collected from my yard. It's about six feet high and at least 20 feet wide, and growing. (Click image for enlarged view). We were without power most of Sunday and Monday and had no Internet until late Tuesday, but I cannot complain. Not one bit. Not after so many of my fellow Floridians got hit so much worse. I feel very lucky, in fact. Very fortunate. Thoughts are with those in Key West and the state's west coast and everyone trying to rebuild their lives. Happy to be rid of awful Irma, and thrilled to again appreciate the small miracles of life, such as the flip of a switch magically producing light. My latest column, linked directly above, includes more on what our Irma experience was like. Thanks again for the concern, and it's great to be back!

Fripix LobosNFL PIX 'N FANTASY: WEEK 1 RESULTS: Every week in the blog I'll tell you how I did the previous NFL week with my Miami Herald predictions and with my Greg's Lobos team in the LeBatard Show fantasy league. In Week 1: Herald picks: So-so start -- We went 8-7 overall (not good) and also 8-7 against the point spread (not bad). Misfired badly on our Upset of the Week call (49ers over Panthers) but nailed another outright upset (Raiders over Titans) and had three other 'dogs-with-points (Chiefs, Jaguars, Chargers). Greg's Lobos: 1-0, baby! -- The Lobos crushed Lorenzo Rodriguez (TV producer), 115.1-72.4, led by 20.9 points from Lobo of the Week Jordy Nelson. Also got 20.6 from Todd Gurley.

SOPY RANKINGS / AFTER WEEK 2: LITTLE CHANGE, THANKS TO IRMA: Only two of seven state FBS teams (FIU and FAU) snuck in games in Week 2, while the Sopyother five were cancelling or postponing due to Hurricane Irma. Therefore there isn't much change in our blog's State Offensive Player of the Year (SOPY) rankings -- what we like to call our ongoing "state Heisman" race -- entering Week 3. The weekly rankings measure the most productive quarterbacks, running backs and receivers from the state's seven top-level FBS teams: Miami, Florida, Florida State, FIU, FAU, UCF and South Florida. The rankings are cumulative but based on average yards per game: Total divided by number of games a player's team has played. This keeps the comparison level even because not all teams have played same number of games. Our simple formula awards a half-point for every passing yard and one point for every rushing or receiving yard, with six points for every TD scored or thrown. Here is the statewide SOPY Top 10 entering Week 3:

2017 SOPY WEEK 2 TOP 10

RK  LW  Player, School-Pos.                     Avg.

1    1    McKenzie Milton-UCF qb             208

2    2    Quinton Flowers-SoFla qb           183

3    3    Mark Walton-Miami rb                168

4    4    Malik Rosier-Miami qb                167.5

5    6    Travis Homer-Miami rb               133

6    7    Alex McGough-FIU qb                 131.25

7    5    Daniel Parr-FAU qb                     110.75

8    8    Thomas Owens- FIU rec              105

9    9    Deondre Francois-FSU qb            102

10  --    DeAndre McNeal-FAU rec            101.5

Bubble: Dredrick Snelson-UCF rec, 98. Week 2 best: McGough-FIU, 155. Season best: Milton-UCF, 208 (W1).

Cote's State of the State rankings: 1. Florida State (0-1); 2. Miami (1-0); 3. South Florida (2-0); 4. Florida (0-1); 5. UCF (1-0); 6. FAU (0-1); 7. FIU (1-1).

HOT BUTTON DAILY: THU 9-14-17: Today's sports events of most interest in SoFla:

1. Houston at Cincinnati, 8:30 p.m.: Texans, Bengals in Thursday Night Football.

2. Marlins at Philadelphia, 7:05 p.m.: It's now 14 losses in past 16 games for rotting Fish.

3. UEFA soccer, 12:45 p.m.: Five more matches happening today.

Revisit our blog often because we update and add to our latest posts throughout the day.

Twitter @gregcote