November 20, 2018

See the major impact of Monday night's Mahomes/Goff air show on our updated (and expanded) Herald NFL QB rankings; plus Radio Tuesday, Pix 'n Fantasy results, our college State of the State rank, column links & more

GREG COTE'S RANDOM EVIDENCE BLOG: MIAMI. SPORTS. AND BEYOND.

1) It's TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 20. Find the latest Canesfan Satisfaction Meter result in the blogpost right below this one, or directly here. 2) Football is raging and the holidays are upon us. That means it's the perfect time to delight Dolfans you know with the gift of our 'Fins At 50' book. Check it out on Amazon. 3) In The Previous Blogpost (ITPB): Canes win at Virginia Tech with CSM poll, LeBron torches Heat, Logano wins NASCAR, Hot Button Top 10 & more. 4) Join us on Twitter @gregcote. Also Facebook and Instagram.

It's Radio Tuesday! (and Wednesday): I'm in-studio today for my regular Tuesday co-host spot on the Dan LeBatard Show With Stugotz. It airs 8:55 a.m. to 1 p.m. on Miami's 790 The Ticket and 10-1 nationally on ESPN Radio affiliates coast to cost and on ESPNews. This week I'll also be filling in on Wednesday's show. Join us!

LebronOur latest columns: LeBron/Heat, NASCAR, Wade's paternity leave, Gase/Richt: LeBron James won in Miami on Sunday night for the first time since leaving the Heat in 2014. His Los Angeles Lakers won, but oh did he win personally, too. James majestically dropping 51 points on his former team was enough to make Heat fans wistful: Oh What We Had, And What We Lost. Also: NASCAR Needs A Next Big ThingWade's World Bigger Than Hoops, And Good For Him. And Honeymoon Over: How Collapsing Seasons Put Heat on Gase, Richt.

MahgofOH DID MAHOMES AND GOFF PUT ON A SHOW! / MIAMI HERALD NFL QB RANKINGS (EXPANDED) / WEEK 11: With Thanksgiving Week signalling the start of the NFL playoff push, we're expanding our weekly Herald NFL quarterback rankings from a Top 15 to a Top 25 beginning now. The Rams' epic 54-51 win over the Chiefs on Monday night was driven by the QB play. Chief Patrick Mahomes' 52.90-point game wins the Herald's Week 11 title and moves Mahomes less than one point behind overall leader Drew Brees. Ram Jared Goff was secodn for the week at 50.65 to bump up one spot to third place. Because our rankings are cumulative, players on a bye week take a temporary hit that evens out over the course of a season. This is our 21st season of Passer Success System (PASS) NFL QB rankings. Our formula is simple and unchanged since its inception in 1998, factoring accuracy, yardage, TD-interception ratio and team result. Most major ranking systems such as the NFL's and ESPN's are complicated and percentile based, allowing QBs who miss half a season to still win a title, while our system is cumulative, rewarding players who are consistently productive and avoid injury or benching. The Top 25 table (plus Dolphins) entering Week 12:

MIAMI HERALD PASS RANKINGS / WEEK 11
RK    LW    Player, Team                       WK11          Season

1       1       Drew Brees, NO                    49.15         445.20

2       2       Patrick Mahomes, KC            52.90         444.40

3       4       Jared Goff, LAR                   50.65         422.35

4       3      Matt Ryan, ATL                     28.55          402.25

5       5      Kirk Cousins, MIN                  27.10          379.85

6       6      Ben Roethlisberger, PIT         24.70          362.10

7       7      Andrew Luck, IND                 45.85          361.45

8       9      Philip Rivers, LAC                 33.05          336.00

9      10     Aaron Rodgers, GB                34.60          321.15

10      8     Tom Brady, NE                       BYE`          315.40

11     11    Cam Newton, CAR                 36.85          315.15

12     12    Eli Manning, NYG                  38.55           313.80

13     15    Derek Carr, OAK                   27.60           297.65

14     16    Matthew Stafford, DET         28.00           297.25

15     14    Mitch Trubisky, CHI               19.25           290.45

16     17    Deshaun Watson, HOU          20.40           284.85

17     19    Russell Wilson, SEA              33.25           278.60

18     13    Carson Wentz, PHI                3.80            275.20

19     20    Andy Dalton, CIN                 18.55           262.30

20     22    Case Keenum, DEN              21.25           249.25

21     18    Joe Flacco, BAL                   DNP             246.25

22     25    Dak Prescott, DAL               27.40           238.90

23     21    Alex Smith, WAS                  -2.25           236.00

24t    24    Blake Bortles, JAC               7.20            225.30

24t    23    Ryan Fitzpatrick, TB            4.35            225.30

29    29     Brock Osweiler, MIA             BYE             126.35

31    30     Ryan Tannehill, MIA             BYE             112.60

Bubble: Baker Mayfield, CLE, 199.20. Week 11 best: Mahomes, KC, 52.90 (33-46, 478, 6-3 in loss). Week 11 worst: Smith, WAS, minus-2.25 (12-27, 135, 0-2 in loss).

Picks LobosNFL WEEK 11 PIX 'N FANTASY RESULTS: PRETTY BAD, BAD: Every Tuesday in the blog I update you on how I did the past weekend with my Miami Herald predictions and with my LeBatard Show/League Of Lobos fantasy team. The latest: Herald picksPretty bad. I'm having a strong season but it didn't show in last week's stumble. We opened with an exact-score bull's-eye on Seattle beating Green Bay Thursday night, ended perfectly Monday night (Rams winning, Chiefs) covering), but nosedived in-between. We ended 7-6 overall and 5-7-1 against the spread, with Bengals-Ravens off the board for the tie. I guess as bad weeks go, we can live with that one. We're on the rebound this week so look out! Greg's LobosBad. Lobos fall to 4-7 with a 145-113 loss to Allyson. We got a gargantuan 43.5 points Monday night from Tyreek Hill. Alas, Allyson added to her big week from almost that many from Patrick Mahomes. With only two weeks left in the regular season the 'Bos still are mathematically alive to make the playoffs, but I'll need to win out from here, hope  the right other teams all lose and maybe still need luck from tiebreakers. Not looking good, in other words. Nevertheless: #WeAreTheLobos!

StateCOTE'S STATE OF THE STATE RANKINGS: Each Tuesday I rank the state's seven FBS-level college football teams. The latest: 1. UCF (10-0); 2. Florida (8-3); 3. Miami (6-5); 4. Florida State (5-6); 5. South Florida (7-4); 6. FIU (8-3); 7. FAU (5-6).

Select other recent columns: Moving Beyond Tannehill Smart But Not Easy For DolphinsDolfans, Your Team Is Not Easy To LoveNo More Excuses, Florida PanthersTannehill: Requiem For A QuarterbackWhatever Happened to Kenyan Drake? NFL 2018 Team RankingsDolphins? Heat? Nope. UM Football Owns This TownNFL Enters Year 3 Of Anthem-Protest QuagmireTo The Good-Guy Grinder In The ShadesTime to Flip the Old Narrative On Miami As a Sports TownCan Riley Rescue Heat From Purgatory? When 3 World Cup Legends Were Ours.

Revisit our blog often because we update and add to our latest posts throughout the day.

Twitter @gregcote

November 19, 2018

Latest Hot Button Top 10: LeBron torches Heat (with new column), Logano wins NASCAR; plus Canesfan Satisfaction Meter: 50.0% in wake of 38-14 win making UM bowl-eligible; also, other state Collball (FIU wins) & more

GREG COTE'S RANDOM EVIDENCE BLOG: MIAMI. SPORTS. AND BEYOND.

1) It's MONDAY, NOVEMBER 19. Football is raging and the holidays are upon us. That means it's the perfect time to delight Dolfans you know with the gift of our 'Fins At 50' book. Check it out on Amazon. 2) In The Previous Blogpost (ITPB): NFL Week 11 picks, your Gase/Richt verdicts, Marlins' new logo, Hassan Whiteside's gun & more. 3) Join us on Twitter @gregcote. Also Facebook and Instagram.

Lebronlakers Nascar LoganoHEAVYWEIGHT SUNDAY IN MIAMI: LOGANO WINS NASCAR VS. LEBRON TORCHES HEAT: NASCAR ran its season championship race down at Homestead this afternoon with final-four longshot Joey Logano winning the season crown. And as the race was ending the Heat would tip off downtown against LeBron James' L.A. Lakers in his only visit of the season -- with Lakers winning 113-97 led by LeBron James' 51 points. Yes, 51! Pretty rare we get two events of that size on the same day. I took a Twitter poll on who you wanted to win the racing title and it could hardly have been closer: Kyle Busch 27 percent, Kevin Harvick and Martin Truex Jr, both 25%, and Logano 23%. Betting odds have it Busch and Harvick co-favorites at 11-4, Truex 6-1 and Logano 10-1. #WhyWeLoveSports

NEW: LeBron torches Heat column: From the arena Sunday night as Lakers' LeBron James drops 51 on Miami: Oh What We Had, And What We Lost.

Our latest other columns: NASCAR, NFL picks, Wade, Gase/Richt: NASCAR Needs A Next Big Thing. NFL Week 11 GemsWade's World Bigger Than Hoops, And Good For Him. And Honeymoon Over: How Collapsing Seasons Put Heat on Gase, Richt.

HOT BUTTON TOP 10 (UPDATED): WHAT SOUTH FLORIDA SPORTS FANS ARE TALKING ABOUT: Our blog-exclusive every-Sunday feature is part week-in-review, part look-ahead. Hot Button means what's on our minds, locally and nationally, from a Miami perspective, as the sports week just past pivots to the week ahead. This week's HB10:

Hotbutton1. HEAT: Miami hosts LeBron, LeBron torches Heat: LeBron James' L.A. Lakers were here tonight for their only visit of the season, and LeBron James' 51 points led a 113-97 L.A. win that dropped Miami to 6-10 in the continuing paternity absence of Dwyane Wade. Oh, and it was revealed Hassan Whiteside had a $50,000 assault rifle stolen from his unlocked car over the summer. That enough to digest for one week, Heat fans?

2. NASCAR: Logano wins season crown at Homestead: Mega-Sunday at Homestead-Miami Speedway as SoFla hosted NASCAR's season championship for 17th straight year. Kyle Busch, Kevin Harvick, Joey Logano or Martin Truex Jr. raced for the trophy, with Logano, the betting longshot, raising it.

3. HURRICANES: UM (finally) bowl-eligible after big win in Blacksburg: A bit of a sluggish start but the Canes came on and rolled at Va-Tech 38-14 on Saturday, ending a 4-game losing streak and getting bowl eligible at 6-5. Still a disappointing season, but UM fans were smiling for the first time in a long while.

4. MARLINS: Rebranding Fish unveil new uniforms, logo: The Derek Jeter's group's rebranding of the Marlins -- i.e., an attempt to make you forget Jeffrey Loria and David Samson ever existed -- continued this week the revealing of a new Marlins logo and colors. Rebrand and move new merchandise all at once. Brilliant!

5. DOLPHINS: Fins spend bye week with fingers crossed on Tannehill: Miami spends its bye off this week  at 5-5 after having lost five of past seven games, with a trip to Indianapolis on deck. Ryan Tannehil and his shoulder, out the last five games, is supposed to return. Any hope for a playoff run is all that depends on it.

6. PANTHERS: Cats on road trying to get hot again: Florida is now 7-10 with two straight losses following a five-game win streak. Team is away three more games before returning home as fans still wait to see who the real Cats are in an uneven start to the NHL season. 

7. SOCCER: Miami hosts international conference: Miami hosted "SoccerEx," a two-day global networking conference that drew soccer officials from 40 nations to Marlins Park. No announcement yet, but choice of sites is a strong hint where David Beckham's Inter Miami MLS expansion team might be playing while its new stadium is built at the Melreese site. 

8. UM HOOPS: Canes women lose first game: No. 24-ranked Miami women were 4-0 after Katie Meier's squad notched 63-55 home win over 19th-ranked Marquette, but UM lost Sunday at Iowa State. Almost forgot, Canes men, with an easier early schedule, are 3-0.

9. COLLEGE FOOTBALL: Playoff picture remains steady: The top eight teams in the College Football Playoff ranking all won, so teams just below, such as now 10-0 NO. 11 UCF and No. 13 Florida, will have a tough time moving up. Can anything stop an Alabama-Clemson title game? Rhetorical question. Answer: Doubt it.

10. FIU: ButchCats win again, thinking title: FIU is 8-3 after Saturday's 42-35 win over Charlotte on coach Butch Davis' 67th birthday. Mostly, Panthers remain well in the hunt for Conference USA championship. 

Missing the HB10 cut: Awards week in MLB and so your Marlins have now traded away the 2017 and 2018 NL MVPs in Giancarlo Stanton and Christian Yelich ..... Tickets now on sale for Miami Open tennis as event moves from Key Biscayne to Hard Rock Stadium. Aesthetic downturn, yes, but the curiosity factor is there ..... MLS playoffs get intense with first leg of conference finals next Sunday. Soon, Miami. Soon ..... Update: Countdown now 2,773 days (give or take) until Miami hosts its first match in the 2026 World Cup.

CsmCANESFAN SATISFACTION METER: G11: Results are certified in the latest Canesfan Satisfaction Meter postgame poll, and they show an even 50.0 percent overall approval -- the combination of "very" and "somewhat" satisfied votes -- in the wake of Saturday's 38-14 Miami victory at Virginia Tech putting Miami's season record at 6-5 overall and 3-4 in the ACC. The CSM is your invitation after every Canes football game -- no matter the result or opponent -- to vote on your overall satisfaction with the team and season in a continuing weekly gauge of how UM football fans are feeling. Criteria for voting is your own, but I suggest you consider the most recent game's performance and caliber of opponent, the season as a whole, the program's direction and your overall degree of optimism -- all in the context of reasonable expectations. Results are certified official the morning after one full day of voting. In this case that was around 9:30 a.m. today/Monday. (The CSM also takes place on my Twitter site @gregcote. The approval vote there was 34%).

2018 CSM game-by game results

G1: 9.2% following 33-17 loss to LSU.

G2: 73.8% following 77-0 victory vs. Savannah State.

G3: 76.7% following 49-24 victory at Toledo.

G4: 84.0% following 31-17 victory vs. FIU.

G5: 98.7% following 47-10 victory vs. North Carolina.

G6: 91.1% following 28-27 victory vs. FSU.

G7: 13.0% following 16-13 loss at Virginia.

G8: 7.8% following 27-14 loss at Boston College.

G9: 12.1% following 20-12 loss vs. Duke.

G10: 12.6% following 27-21 loss at Georgia Tech.

G11: 50.0% following 38-14 victory at Virginia Tech.

Next poll: Nov. 24 following game vs. Pitt.

MiavtG11: HURRICANES 38, @VIRGINIA TECH 14: MIAMI FINALLY WINS AGAIN, FINALLY IS BOWL-ELIGIBLE: Final thoughts: Big plays defined UM's 38-14 win over Virginia Tech today in Blacksburg to end a four-game UM skid and make the Canes bowl-eligible at 6-5. Shaq Quartman's interception return to the Tech 3. Cam'Ron Davis' 42-yard TD run. Jeff Thomas' 51-yard punt-return score. And N'Kosi Perry's two TD passes without an interception. For me, Perry tightened his grip on the starting job. And freshman Cam Davis gives UM a lot to look forward to at running back. Miami was not consistently solid on offense and the defense allowed two long scoring drives. Still, after a dispiriting four straight losses, this is a huge day for a bowl-getting sixth win. This has been a disappointing season, but the Canes did not disappoint today with a nice road victory. 4QUM 38-14 on Perry-Davis 16-yard TD pass ... UM 31-14 on Thomas 51-yard punt return TD ... UM24-14 on Davis 42-yard TD run for biggest Canes lead ..... Halftime thoughts: Another teetering game by Miami. Offense again has been unimpressive, considering seven of UM's points were directly set up by a turnover. Defense has been OK overall but has allowed 76- and 75-yard scoring drives. Canes still must prove they're the better team ..... 2Q: UM 17-14 on Perry 1-yard TD run capping impressive 10-play, 71-yard drive ... VT 14-10 on 20-yard scoring run ...  UM 10-7 on Perry-Langham 3-yard TD pass, after Quarterman interception and return to VT 3 ..... UM 3-7 on 33-yard FG, after Wiggins drops well-throw Perry pass that should have been TD ... VT 7-0 on 15-yard TD pass, after UM gouged for 5-play, 76-yard opening drive ..... Original postWelcome to Saturday's Misery Bowl kicking off at 3:30 in Blacksburg before ESPN cameras. (Must be a slow week!) Trust us, when ESPN booked this game the Worldwide Leader thought it was getting something big. Instead it's getting oh what might have been! These were two preseason Top 25 teams expected to duel for the ACC Coastal division crown. This game should (theoretically) be to see who plays Clemson for the conference crown. Instead it matches two disappointing teams, also-rans scrambling just to get bowl-eligible. And both come in cold, Miami 5-5 after four straight losses, and Va-Tech 4-5 with three losses in a row. Sad! Two erstwhile proud programs trying to salvage unexpectedly down seasons and work an invite, at this point, to what? The Salad Bowl? Somebody has to snap their losing skid, and it'll be Miami, which opened as a 3 1/2 point favorite but saw that balloon to 6 1/2. And with reason. VT has been a bit of a nemesis for UM, which is 9-14 in the past 23 meetings and has lost four of the past five trips to Lane Stadium. That gives us some pause, yes. But more than that trend is this: the Hokies/Gobblers have one of the worst run defenses on Earth, and Travis Homer and DeeJay Dallas should run wild to alleviate pressure and burden from N'Kosi Perry. Also like The U's pass defense really limiting what Tech does best. People, if the Canes lose this game they flat-out don't deserve a bowl, any bowl. My pick: Hurricanes, 31-16.

OTHER STATE COLLBALL: There are seven FBS-level college teams in Florida. Here's chronological Week 12 schedule for the rest (all Saturday unless noted):

North Texas (8-3) beats FAU (5-6), 41-38: With Thursday night's loss, Lane Kiffin's Owls now have one game left to get bowl-eligible then pray somebody invites a .500 FAU.

No. 13 Florida (8-3) beats Idaho (4-7), 63-10: Gators, jockeying for poll 'n bowl position, were up 49-0 at half and coasted in mismatch.

Temple (7-4) beats South Florida (7-4), 27-17: The fast-fading Bulls allowed 17 unanswered points in fourth quarter to blow it again.

FIU (8-3) beats Charlotte (4-7), 42-35: The ButchCats, still with a shot to reach the C-USA title game, with a nice road win. And a happy birthday for coach Butch Davis!

FSU (5-6) beats No. 20 Boston College (7-4), 22-21: Nice little (small) home upset as the Noles stay alive (technically) at the Doak for bowl eligibility.

No. 11 UCF (10-0) beats No. 24 Cincinnati (9-1), 38-13: Huge! UCF extended its nation-best winning streak to 23 games and will host the AAC title game Dec. 1 after routing Cincy. ESPN's College GameDay was in Orlando to bless the Knights, one more reason for Canes fans to begrudge how the UCF program (until further notice) has surpassed UM.

Week 12 national Top 25 matchups (3): No. 3 Notre Dame beats No. 12 Syracuse, 36-3; 11-UCF beats 24-Cincinnati, 38-13; and 15-Texas beats 16-Iowa State, 24-10.

Select other recent columns: Moving Beyond Tannehill Smart But Not Easy For DolphinsDolfans, Your Team Is Not Easy To LoveNo More Excuses, Florida PanthersTannehill: Requiem For A QuarterbackWhatever Happened to Kenyan Drake? NFL 2018 Team RankingsDolphins? Heat? Nope. UM Football Owns This TownNFL Enters Year 3 Of Anthem-Protest QuagmireTo The Good-Guy Grinder In The ShadesTime to Flip the Old Narrative On Miami As a Sports TownCan Riley Rescue Heat From Purgatory? When 3 World Cup Legends Were Ours.

Revisit our blog often because we update and add to our latest posts throughout the day.

Twitter @gregcote

November 15, 2018

Your support of Dolphins coach Adam Gase and Canes' Mark Richt: 2 polls, last chance to vote!; plus my ne With my coach Gase/Richt homeymoon's-over column; plus Herald NFL QB rankings, Pix 'n Fantasy results, college State of State rank & more

GREG COTE'S RANDOM EVIDENCE BLOG: MIAMI. SPORTS. AND BEYOND.

Marvel1) It's THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 15. R.I.P. Stan Lee, the Marvel Comics co-creator, gone this week at 95. I was a huge comic book reader as a kid, long before Comic-Cons and the nerd-trendiness of it. 2) Visit Greg Cote Tuesday for the podcast from this week's LeBatard Show on ESPN Radio. Included is my latest Back In May Day. 3) Football is raging and the holidays are upon us. That means it's the perfect time to delight Dolfans you know with the gift of our 'Fins At 50' book. Check it out on Amazon. 4) In The Previous Blogpost (ITPB): Dolphins lose in Green Bay with DSM poll, Hot Button Top 10 & more. 5) Join us on Twitter @gregcote. Also Facebook and Instagram.

Newest column: Wade paternity leave helps his legacy, not hurts it: Some Heat fans think Dwyane Wade's week-plus paternity leave (he'll miss at least seven games and maybe more) is too much. I sat no and tell why in my latest column. To read it, visit Wade's World Bigger Than Hoops, And Good For Him.

Tonight's Packers-Seahawks pick: Good Thursday night game between two desperate, better-than-their-records NFC teams. Visit Thursday Gem for the pick.

GaserichtYOUR SUPPORT LEVEL FOR ADAM GASE AND MARK RICHT IS WHAT? TWO NEW POLLS. VOTE NOW!: The Dolphins and Hurricanes both are 5-5 in once- promising seasons gone bad. Both teams and head coaches are seeing downward-trending results even predating this year and each coach is the subject of some fan disenchantment on social media and fair criticism in his third season in Miami. I explore the job status, the criticism and the future of both in my latest column. To read, visit Honeymoon Over: How Collapsing Seasons Put Heat on Gase, Richt. Don't get this wrong: These polls do not presume either coach is unpopular with fans. I anticipate overall support for both. This is just for fun, to gauge strength of support relative to each other as much as anything. Read the column and then vote in both polls!

Select previous columns: Bill James Struck A Nerve, But He's More Right Than WrongMarino Set the Blueprint For MahomesState of Shock For Canes, Gators and Noles.

BIG BEN TAKES WEEK, BREES REGAINS SEASON LEAD / MIAMI HERALD NFL QB RANKINGS / WEEK 10: The Saints' Drew Brees nudges ahead of Chief Patrick Mahomes to regain the overall Bigbenseason lead in the Miami Herald's latest NFL quarterback rankings. Week 10 honors go to Steeler Ben Roethlisberger (pictured) with a big 55.40-point game on Thursday night, lifting him one spot to sixth place overall. Lower in the chart, Dolphin Brock Osweiler bumps up one spot to 29th, finally surpassing Ryan Tannehill. Because our rankings are cumulative, players on a bye week take a temporary hit that evens out over the course of a season. This is our 21st season of Passer Success System (PASS) NFL QB rankings. Our formula is simple and unchanged since its inception in 1998, factoring accuracy, yardage, TD-interception ratio and team result. Most major ranking systems such as the NFL's and ESPN's are complicated and percentile based, allowing QBs who miss half a season to still win a title, while our system is cumulative, rewarding players who are consistently productive and avoid injury or benching. The Top 15 table (plus Dolphins) entering Week 11:

MIAMI HERALD PASS RANKINGS / WEEK 10
RK    LW    Player, Team                        WK10          Season

1       3      Drew Brees, NO                     46.25          396.05

2       1      Patrick Mahomes, KC             37.45          391.50

3       5      Matt Ryan, ATL                     46.50           373.70

4       4      Jared Goff, LAR                    43.90           371.70

5       2      Kirk Cousins, MIN                  BYE           352.75

6       7      Ben Roethlisberger, PIT         55.40           337.40

7       8      Andrew Luck, IND                 38.25           315.60

8       6      Tom Brady, NE                      13.70           315.40

9       9      Philip Rivers, LAC                 29.15           302.95

10    11      Aaron Rodgers, GB               30.95           286.55

11    12      Cam Newton, CAR                29.65           278.30

12    16      Eli Manning, NYG                 30.40           275.25

13    18      Carson Wentz, PHI               41.00           271.40

14    20      Mitch Trubisky, CHI              47.75           271.20

15    14      Derek Carr, OAK                  23.15           270.05

15    13      Matthew Stafford, DET        21.70           269.25

29    30     Brock Osweiler, MIA              16.65          126.35

30    29     Ryan Tannehill, MIA                DNP          112.60

Bubble: Matthew Stafford, DET, 269.25. Week 10 best: Roethlisberger, PIT, 55.40 (22-25, 328, 5-0 in win). Week 10 worst: Josh McCown, NYJ, 0.75 (17-34, 135, 0-2 in loss).

Picks LobosNFL WEEK 10 PIX 'N FANTASY RESULTS: WIN, WIN!: Every Tuesday in the blog I update you on how I did the past weekend with my Miami Herald predictions and with my LeBatard Show/League Of Lobos fantasy team. The latest: Herald picksWin! We were a decent 9-5 straight-up but on the right side (again) at 8-5-1 against the spread in Week 10, with the Colts win pushing at 3 for the tie. We nailed yet another Upset of the Week with Giants winning in San Fran last night ("Aawwk!") and also had four big 'dogs-with-points in Titans, Cardinals, Seahawks and Cowboys. (See Week 10 Gems to check my bookkeeping). Greg's LobosWin! Lobos rise to 4-6 on the year with a 147.7-48 crushing of Domonique Foxworth. He played three guys out injured -- not sly, Fox! -- but I'd have won anyway led by a huge combined 73.2 points from Zach Ertz and Tyreek Hill. (Zach making a case for season MVL honors; we'll see). Three weeks left in the regular season and the 'Bos are rallying for a playoff ticket! #WeAreTheLobos

StateofCOTE'S STATE OF THE STATE RANKINGS: Each Tuesday I rank the state's seven FBS-level college football teams. The latest: 1. UCF (9-0); 2. Florida (7-3); 3. Miami (5-5); 4. South Florida (7-3); 5. Florida State (4-6); 6. FAU (5-5); 7. FIU (7-3).

Select other recent columns: Moving Beyond Tannehill Smart But Not Easy For DolphinsDolfans, Your Team Is Not Easy To LoveWade Reminds Us Why We'll Miss HimNo More Excuses, Florida PanthersTannehill: Requiem For A QuarterbackWhatever Happened to Kenyan Drake? NFL 2018 Team RankingsDolphins? Heat? Nope. UM Football Owns This TownNFL Enters Year 3 Of Anthem-Protest QuagmireTo The Good-Guy Grinder In The ShadesTime to Flip the Old Narrative On Miami As a Sports TownCan Riley Rescue Heat From Purgatory? When 3 World Cup Legends Were Ours.

Revisit our blog often because we update and add to our latest posts throughout the day.

Twitter @gregcote

November 12, 2018

Canesfan Satisfaction Meter: 12.6%; plus UM falls at Georgia Tech 27-21, 4th straight loss; also, your Dolphins-in-playoffs verdict, rest of state Collball, my Bill James column, honoring Bill Torrey & more

GREG COTE'S RANDOM EVIDENCE BLOG: MIAMI. SPORTS. AND BEYOND.

Torrey1) It's SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 11. Islanders were at Panthers last night, and they honored the late Bill Torrey (pictured). He made champions of the Isles and founded the Cats. The legacy of the kind man in the bowtie is secure. 2) Football season and the holidays up on us means it's the perfect time to delight Dolfans you know with the gift of our 'Fins At 50' book. Check it out on Amazon. 3) In The Previous Blogpost (ITPB): NFL Week 10 picks, Bill James column, Mahomes/Marino parallel, Dolphins-playoffs poll, congrats D. Wade & more. 4) Join us on Twitter @gregcote. Also Facebook and Instagram.

Latest column: On Bill James and replaceable athletes: The sabermetrics ace and Red Sox adviser fell into hot water by saying baseball players are replaceable, likening their importance to that of beer vendors. By extension he meant athletes in general. But here's the thing. He may be right. I discuss in my latest column. To read it, visit Bill James Struck A Nerve, But He's More Right Than Wrong.

Other most recent stuff: Week 10 Gems (our latest NFL picks). Marino Set the Blueprint For Mahomes. And State of Shock For Canes, Gators and Noles.

CsmCANESFAN SATISFACTION METER: G10: Results are certified in the latest Canesfan Satisfaction Meter postgame poll, and they show 12.6 percent overall approval -- the combination of "very" and "somewhat" satisfied votes -- in the wake of Saturday night's 27-21 UM loss at Georgia Tech putting Miami's season record at 5-5 overall and 2-4 in the ACC. The CSM is your invitation after every Canes football game -- no matter the result or opponent -- to vote on your overall satisfaction with the team and season in a continuing weekly gauge of how UM football fans are feeling. Criteria for voting is your own, but I suggest you consider the most recent game's performance and caliber of opponent, the season as a whole, the program's direction and your overall degree of optimism -- all in the context of reasonable expectations. Results are certified official the morning after one full day of voting. In this case that was around 8:30 a.m. today/Monday. (The CSM also takes place on my Twitter site @gregcote. The approval there was 21%).

2018 CSM game-by game results

G1: 9.2% following 33-17 loss to LSU.

G2: 73.8% following 77-0 victory vs. Savannah State.

G3: 76.7% following 49-24 victory at Toledo.

G4: 84.0% following 31-17 victory vs. FIU.

G5: 98.7% following 47-10 victory vs. North Carolina.

G6: 91.1% following 28-27 victory vs. FSU.

G7: 13.0% following 16-13 loss at Virginia.

G8: 7.8% following 27-14 loss at Boston College.

G9: 12.1% following 20-12 loss vs. Duke.

G10: 12.6% following 27-21 loss at Georgia Tech.

Next poll: Nov. 17 following game at Virginia Tech.

G10: @GEORGIA TECH 27, HURRICANES 21: UM DROPS 4TH STRAIGHT: Postgame thoughts: Ugh. Three turnovers. Dumb penalties. And a fourth straight loss. UM now 5-8 in its last 13 games under Mark Richt. N'Kosi Perry was OK tonight. The defense wasn't terrible. Mistakes killed UM ..... Original post: The stakes? With both teams at 5-4, only the winner here becomes bowl-eligible, and only the winner keeps at least some semblance of hope (against odds) of still winning the ACC Coastal and reaching the conference title game. That seems far-fetched right now, of course, especially Miagtfor the Canes. The two teams are aimed in opposite directions. Miami carries the weight and burden of a three-game losing streak into tonight's 7 o'clock game in Atlanta, while Georgia Tech has won two in a row, both on the road. That and the home field are why the Yellow Jackets are favored, albeit by a modest 2 1/2 points. UM's desperation for a win is underlined by the fact next week's game at Virginia Tech will be another huge challenge and loss-threat. In other words, if the Canes fall tonight, they'd be realistically facing the school's first five-game in-season losing streak since 1977. But that's getting ahead. The challenge tonight: Finding some offense. UM hasn't scored more than 14 points in a game in over a month as neither Malik Rosier nor N'Kosi Perry has been successful. Mark Richt's latest coin flip landed on Perry, who is to start tonight. The other major task for The U: Contain Tech's vaunted triple-option ground game, which leads the nation averaging 377 rushing yards per game. UM's defense must win the early downs and force Tech to pass, which the Jackets hate to do. Why I like the Canes to end their losing streak with an upset tonight: It isn't that I trust Perry or the offense. Manny Diaz's defense will win this game. UM leads the nation in tackles for loss and is well suited to disrupt or at least limit what Tech does best. GT also is prone to sloppiness, with nine turnovers in their four losses, and forcing those is sort of what Miami's D does. Also, Miami has won eight of past nine meetings in this series including three of the past four in Atlanta. My pick: Upset! Hurricanes 27-23.

OTHER STATE COLLBALL: There are seven FBS-level college teams in Florida. Here's chronological Week 11 schedule for the rest (all Saturday):

No. 12 UCF (9-0) beats Navy (2-8), 35-24: Knights, headed for AAC title game, were 25 1/2-point favorites but coasted on autopilot vs. overmatched Midshipmen.

No. 15 Florida (7-3) beats South Carolina (5-4), 35-31: Gators off two straight losses were modest 6-point Swamp favorites and needed to rally and score game's final 21 points to survive.

FAU (5-5) beats Western Kentucky (1-9), 34-15: Lane Kiffin's Owls were 3-touchdown betting picks but needed big second half to win.

FIU (7-3) beats UTSA (3-7), 45-7: ButchCats, still fighting to reach C-USA title game, were 10 1/2-point road faves and crushed it at Texas-San Antonio.

Cincinnati (9-1) beats South Florida (7-3), 35-23Sinking Bulls have now dropped three in a row, giving up 133 points in the process.

No. 3 Notre Dame (10-0) beats FSU (4-6), 42-13Noles have now lost three straight. Backup QB? NO problem for Irish as they solidify hold on College Football Playoff.

Week 11 national Top 25 matchups (4): No. 10 Ohio State beats No. 18 Michigan State, 26-6; 1-Alabama beats 16-Mississippi State, 24-0; 5-Georgia beats 24-Auburn, 27-10; and 2-Clemson beats 17-Boston College, 27-7.

POLL RESULT: LANDSLIDE SAY NO DOLPHINS IN PLAYOFFS: We asked very simply, yes or no, will the 5-4 Miami Dolphins make the playoffs? Your answer: 84.75 percent no, 15.25% yes. Ouch.

Other select recent columns: Dolphins Win, But Under Cloud, Not RainbowTime For Faith In Richt, And PatienceMoving Beyond Tannehill Smart But Not Easy For DolphinsDolfans, Your Team Is Not Easy To LoveSnakebit AdamFamily TraditionVictor-y, Miami! Wade Reminds Us Why We'll Miss HimNo More Excuses, Florida PanthersTannehill: Requiem For A QuarterbackWhatever Happened to Kenyan Drake? NFL 2018 Team RankingsDolphins? Heat? Nope. UM Football Owns This TownNFL Enters Year 3 Of Anthem-Protest QuagmireTo The Good-Guy Grinder In The ShadesTime to Flip the Old Narrative On Miami As a Sports TownCan Riley Rescue Heat From Purgatory? When 3 World Cup Legends Were Ours.

Revisit our blog often because we update and add to our latest posts throughout the day.

Twitter @gregcote

November 07, 2018

There's a new No. 1 in Herald's NFL QB rankings!; plus quick political comment, latest Pix 'n Fantasy results, ESPN 'Greg Cote Tuesday' link, my 'State Of Shock' column, Cote's State of the State rank, still-Perfect '72 Fins & more

GREG COTE'S RANDOM EVIDENCE BLOG: MIAMI. SPORTS. AND BEYOND.

1) It's WEDNESDAY, NOVEMBER 7. Visit Greg Cote Tuesday for the podcast from yesterday's Le Batard Show on ESPN Radio. Contained therein: the latest 'Back In My Day.' 2) Football season means it's the perfect time to delight Dolfans you know with our 'Fins At 50' book. Check it out on Amazon. 3) In The Previous Blogpost (ITPB): Dolphins beats Jets wirh DSM poll, Hot Button Top 10, your most-disappointing-team verdict & more. 4) Join us on Twitter @gregcote. Also Facebook and Instagram.

"I try to avoid overt political comments here. Let's just say that, with the mid-term election results, I'm grateful that so much of the country is so much more progressive than my own state of Florida, which apparently is OK continuing to slide into the embrace of 'Deep South' beyond geography. You are free to disagree. God bless America!" --Greg Cote

ShulaSTILL PERFECT AFTER ALL THESE YEARS: Quietly came an annual rite of football passage on Sunday. The NFL's last unbeaten team (the L.A. Rams) lost, preserving the 1972 Dolphins' 17-0 as still the only Perfect Season in NFL history. That's 46 years and counting weathering the storm and standing alone for Don Shula and his boys. In honor of the accomplishment, a photo (at right) taken before Sunday's Dolphins-Jets game at Hard Rock Stadium. Far left and right are iconic fullback Larry Csonka with the thumbs-up sign and of course Shula in his mustard Pro Football Hall of Fame jacket. In between them: Joe Namath and Shula's wife, Mary Anne. #StillPerfect

LATEST COLUMN: Canes, Gators, Noles make dubious history: Miami, Florida and Florida State have a current combined seven-game losing streak, the first time in almost a half-century that each has simultaneously lost at least two in a row. It's an historical quirk, but indicative of the broader struggles and challenges for the state's erstwhile Big 3. To dive into my latest column, visit State of Shock For Canes, Gators and Noles.

Select other recent columns: From the stadium on Sunday's game: Dolphins Win, But Under Cloud, Not Rainbow. Also: Time For Faith In Richt, And PatienceMoving Beyond Tannehill Smart But Not Easy For DolphinsDolfans, Your Team Is Not Easy To Love (fans vent). Snakebit Adam (on Gase). Family Tradition (N'Kosi Perry's $$ video). And Victory-y, Miami! (Marlins sign Victor Victor Mesa).

MahomesBREES WINS WEEK BUT MAHOMES OVERTAKES SEASON LEAD / MIAMI HERALD NFL QB RANKINGS / WEEK 9: The Saints' Drew Brees scored a 48.30-point game to win Week 9 honors in the Herald's latest NFL quarterback rankings. The bigger news: The Chiefs' Patrick Mahomes (pictured) overtakes Viking Kirk Cousins for the season lead in what evolves for now as a three-man race along with Brees. Because our rankings are cumulative, players on a bye week take a temporary hit that evens out over the course of a season. Dolphin Brock Osweiler, filling in again for injured Ryan Tannehill, did not play well (again) and languishes in 30th place. This is our 21st season of Passer Success System (PASS) NFL QB rankings. Our formula is simple and unchanged since its inception in 1998, factoring accuracy, yardage, TD-interception ratio and team result. Most major ranking systems such as the NFL's and ESPN's are complicated and percentile based, allowing QBs who miss half a season to still win a title, while our system is cumulative, rewarding players who are consistently productive and avoid injury or benching. The Top 15 table (plus Dolphins) entering Week 10:

MIAMI HERALD PASS RANKINGS / WEEK 9
RK    LW    Player, Team                        WK9          Season

1       2       Patrick Mahomes, KC            43.75         354.05

2       1       Kirk Cousins, MIN                  27.20        352.75

3       3       Drew Brees, NO                    48.30        349.80

4       4       Jared Goff, LAR                    41.55        327.80

5       5       Matt Ryan, ATL                     45.50        327.20

6       7       Tom Brady, NE                      31.70        301.70

7       9       Ben Roethlisberger, PIT         33.50        282.00

8       6       Andrew Luck, IND                  BYE          277.35

9       8       Philip Rivers, LAC                 22.40         273.80

10     12     Deshaun Watson, HOU           31.65        264.45

11     13     Aaron Rodgers, GB                23.95        255.60

12     18     Cam Newton, CAR                 36.35        248.65

13     17     Matthew Stafford, DET          23.95        247.55

14     15     Derek Carr, OAK                    19.55        246.90

15     16     Joe Flacco, BAL                    19.30        246.25

29     28     Ryan Tannehill, MIA                DNP         112.60

30     32     Brock Osweiler, MIA               17.95        109.70

Bubble: Eli Manning, NYG, 244.85. Week 9 best: Brees, NO, 48.30 (25-36, 346, 4-0 in win). Week 9 worst: Sam Darnold, NYJ, 2.45 (21-39, 229, 0-4 in loss).

Picks LobosNFL WEEK 9 PIX 'N FANTASY RESULTS: SOLID AGAIN, BAD AGAIN: Every Tuesday in the blog I update you on how I did the past weekend with my Miami Herald predictions and with my LeBatard Show/League Of Lobos fantasy team. The latest: Herald picksSolid again. We went 9-4 straight-up and a stout 9-4 against the spread in Week 9. That included yet another Upset of the Week bull's-eye with Steelers winning in Baltimore ("Aawwk!"), a mini-upset with Texans winning in Denver, and Titans-with-points last night. Also hit the Dolphins' seven-point winning margin on the button. (See Week 9 Gems for proof I ain't lyin'). Greg's LobosBad again. Got spanked by Guillermo 134-71, a score too brutal to mention, really, for a second straight loss dropping us to a disappointing 3-6 on the year. Got 20.3 points from Deshaun Watson and not much else of note. With four weeks left in the regular season I may need to run the table or at least win three to make the playoffs. So let's do it then! #WeAreTheLobos

COTE'S STATE OF THE STATE RANKINGS: Each Tuesday I rank the state's seven FBS-level college football teams. The latest: 1. UCF (8-0); 2. Florida (6-3); 3. Miami (5-4); 4. South Florida (7-2); 5. Florida State (4-5); 6. FAU (4-5); 7. FIU (6-3).

Other select recent columns: Wade Reminds Us Why We'll Miss HimNo More Excuses, Florida PanthersTannehill: Requiem For A QuarterbackWhatever Happened to Kenyan Drake? NFL 2018 Team RankingsDolphins? Heat? Nope. UM Football Owns This TownNFL Enters Year 3 Of Anthem-Protest QuagmireTo The Good-Guy Grinder In The ShadesTime to Flip the Old Narrative On Miami As a Sports TownCan Riley Rescue Heat From Purgatory? When 3 World Cup Legends Were Ours.

Revisit our blog often because we update and add to our latest posts throughout the day.

Twitter @gregcote

November 06, 2018

Dolfan Satisfaction Meter: 29.6%; plus Fins beat Jets 13-6 behind big defense, with my new column from game; also, latest Hot Button Top 10, NFL Week 9 picks, your most-disappointing-team verdict (landslide!) & more

GREG COTE'S RANDOM EVIDENCE BLOG: MIAMI. SPORTS. AND BEYOND.

1) It's MONDAY, NOVEMBER 5. Latest Canesfan Satisfaction Meter results are in. Find 'em in the previous blogpost. They ain't pretty. 2) Football season means it's the perfect time to delight Dolfans you know with our 'Fins At 50' book. Check it out on Amazon. 3) In The Previous Blogpost (ITPB): Hurricanes lose to Duke with CSM poll, Biggest Disappointment Poll, NFL Week 9 picks, other state Collball & more. 4) Join us on Twitter @gregcote. Also Facebook and Instagram.

My Dolphins-Jets game column: From the stadium and the lockerroom Sunday, visit Dolphins Win, But Under Cloud, Not Rainbow.

Select other recent columns: Time For Faith In Richt, And Patience. And Moving Beyond Tannehill Smart But Not Easy For Dolphins. Also: Dolfans, Your Team Is Not Easy To Love (fans vent). Snakebit Adam (luckless Adam Gase). Family Tradition (N'Kosi Perry's $$$ video). And Victory-y, Miami! (Marlins sign Victor Victor Mesa).

DOLFAN SATISFACTION METER: G9: 29.6%: Results are certified in the latest Dolfan Satisfaction Meter postgame poll, and they show 29.6 percent overall approval -- the combination of "very" and "somewhat" satisfied votes -- in the wake of Sunday afternoon's 13-6 home victory over the New York Jets putting Miami's season record at 5-4. The DSM is a continuous weekly gauge of how Dolfans are feeling about the team and its direction. Right after each game I invite you to share your overall degree of satisfaction. Criteria for voting is your own, but I suggest fans consider the most recent game's performance and caliber of opponent, season as a whole, direction the club is heading and your overall degree of optimism -- all in the context of reasonable expectations. Results are certified official the morning after one full day of voting. In this case that was around 7 a.m. today/Tuesday. (The DSM also takes place on our Twitter site @gregcote. The approval rate there was 32%).

2018 DSM game-by-game results

G1: 86.8% following 27-20 victory vs. Tennessee.

G2: 93.4% following 20-12 victory at N.Y. Jets.

G3: 96.2% following 28-20 victory vs. Oakland.

G4: 17.2% following 38-7 loss at New England.

G5: 6.4% following 27-17 loss at Cincinnati.

G6: 75.0% following 31-28 OT victory vs. Chicago.

G7: 8.9% following 32-21 loss vs. Detroit.

G8: 5.8% following 42-23 loss at Houston.

G9: 29.6% following 13-6 victory vs. N.Y. Jets.

Next poll: Nov. 11 following game at Green Bay.

G9: DOLPHINS 13, N.Y. JETS 6: BIG DEFENSE OVERCOMES LITTLE OFFENSE FOR MIAMI: Postgame thoughts? How about an entire game column! Visit Dolphins Win, But Under Cloud, Not Rainbow ..... Halftime thoughts: The Jets offense has been just the cure for Miami's defensive woes that we imagined. Miami has allowed only 117 total yards in the first half, while its own offense has generated only 134. In sum, 3 field goals, 8 punts, 1 lousy game thus far ..... Original post: The Jets won their season opener — big — and Sam Darnold was the mayor of Gotham. The NyjmiaDolphins started out 3-0 and Ryan Tannehill was back and better than ever. What the hell happened!? Rhetorical question. The NFL happened. Darnold’s rookie learning curve kicked in; he doesn’t get much help and the Planes (led by Dead Man Coaching Todd Bowles) have averaged a meager 13.6 points in their five losses at 3-5. And Miami continues to wait for Tannehill’s return from a shoulder injury like Vladimir and Estragon waiting for Godot. Godot never showed. Tannehill might, someday, meanwhile we get a fourth straight game of Brock Osweiler. Brockvember? (Who else works a 1950s Samuel Beckett play into an NFL pick, by the way? You’re welcome!). The fact the home team here has a better record at 4-4 yet is only favored by a bare-bones 3 points verifies how little bettors believe in Miami. I get that. At the same time, what better salve for the Fins’ colossal downturn in defensive success than a sincerely bad NYJ offense? Miami beat the Stinkin’ Jets 20-12 in Week 2 and I’d imagine a similar score, and result. Jets dissolve into a puddle on the road and Miami has won five of its past seven division home games. So let’s make it a venue call fortified by the belief Miami’s defense cannot possibly be worse than we’ve seen lately. Dolfans, prepare to step inside off of that high ledge because the Jets are about to “L-O-S-E, lose!” My pick: Dolphins, 23-16.

Visit Week 9 Gems for all of our latest NFL picks. 

POLL RESULT: CANES FOOTBALL IS BIGGEST DISAPPOINTMENT: We asked (and this was mostly before Saturday's UM loss to Duke) what major South Florida sports team is the most disappointing to you right now? Your verdict: 47.30 percent--

HOT BUTTON TOP 10 (UPDATED): WHAT SOUTH FLORIDA SPORTS FANS ARE TALKING ABOUT: Our blog-exclusive every-Sunday feature, updated Mondays, is part week-in-review, part look-ahead. Hot Button means what's on our minds, locally and nationally, from a Miami perspective, as the sports week just past pivots to the week ahead. This week's HB10:

Hotbutton1. HURRICANES: UM falls at home to Duke for 3rd straight loss: Once 5-1 and ranked, UM is now 5-4 following Saturday's rain-drenched 20-12 loss at home to Duke. Canes were 9 1/2-point favorites but were doomed by two key lost fumbles. Or three, if you count Mark Richt's fumbling of his quarterback situation.

2. DOLPHINS: Big defense helps Stumblin' Fins get past Stinkin' Jets: Miami is 5-4 after Sunday's 13-6 home win over the Stinkin' Jets. Based on low preseason expectations this is not bad. Based on a 3-0 start, sputtering offense and Brock Osweiler ... not so good.

3. UM HOOPS: Hurricanes men open play this Friday: Jim Larranaga's unranked (but receiving votes) UM men open their season this Friday vs. Lehigh. Canes have no freshmen on roster, the fallout of recruiting damage from last year's implication in that FBI probe into corruption in the sport -- one that has found Larranaga and the program not found guilty of anything yet sullied. Katie Meier's UM women, ranked No. 25, open on Tuesday at FIU.

4. COLLEGE BASKETBALL: Kentucky-Duke tops marquee as season opens: No. 2-ranked Kentucky faces No. 4 Duke and 1-Kansas plays 10-Michigan State as the men's college basketball season rolls out with a bang this Tuesday. Now if we can keep attention on the court this year and away from the shady dealings of Adidas executives and teams on the take, we'll be OK.

5. HEAT: Slumping Miami drops third straight: The Heat is 3-5 after a third straight loss last night in Atlanta despite Josh Richardson's 32 points. Miami is at Detroit Monday night then home for four. And if you haven't circled it in red on the calendar yet: Heat host LeBron's Lakers Nov. 18.

6. COLLEGE FOOTBALL: Shakeup ahead in CFP top four: Alabama and Clemson solidified their 1-2 spots in the College Football Playoff ranking with huge wins Saturday -- 'Bama's at the expense of No. 3 LSU. Watch Notre Dame and Michigan hike up to 3-4 in the new rankings, with the Tigers now on the outside. 

7. MLB: Hey big spenders, free agency now underway: It officially began on Saturday, with the Nationals' Bryce Harper and Dodgers' Manny Machado seen as the big two big prizes. Free agency involves big spending by teams willing to put their wallets where there hopes are. Meaning we'll likely hear crickets from the Marlins.

8. PANTHERS: Luongo back as Cats split games in Finland: Panthers are now 3-8 on the season after splitting two games with Winnipeg in NHL Global Series in Helsinki, Finland. Games resume Thursday vs. Edmonton here with goalie Roberto Luongo finally back healthy again.

9. SHULA BOWL: FAU stuns FIU in rivalry renewal: FIU was home, favored and having a better season. FAU was the visitor, the underdog and having a relatively lousy season. There was every reason to imagine Butch Davis smiling at the end, not Lane Kiffin. Final: FAU, 49-14. 

10. ELECTION DAY: Mid-term election are Tuesday. Vote!: Do your civic duty as an American citizen. Go out and vote for the candidate of my choice!

Missing the HB10 cut: Sure the Canes lost again, but Florida and FSU also lost Saturday. What's that they say about misery? ..... The World Series trophy was damaged by a thrown full can of beer during the Red Sox championship parade. That's terrible. Talk about a waste of beer! ..... Golfers beginning in 2019 may opt to putt with the flagstick in, and at least one, Bryson DeChambeau, says he will. I'd be more impressed if he planned to putt with the flagstick itself ..... American star Simone Biles dominated at the world gymnastics championships in Qatar despite suffering from kidney stones. Which sounds impossible, by the way ..... With only 14 days until NASCAR finale at Homestead, Joey Logano is only driver who's locked into Championship Four ..... ESPN analyst Tim Tebow criticized Maryland for firing scandalized football coach D.J. Durkin. "Not even I can agree with Timmy on that one," said God ..... Breeders' Cup ran Saturday at Churchill Downs. It's the one horse race that folks who only care about the Triple Crown races might actually watch ..... Major League Soccer playoffs are down to the final eight. Is Inter Miami sending a scout, David Beckham? ..... After months of blessed quiet, public buffoon LaVar Ball reemerged to say he could coach the Lakers with his "eyes shut." I'd prefer he try anything with his mouth shut ..... Update: Countdown now 2,787 days (give or take) until Miami hosts its first match in the 2026 World Cup.

Other select recent columns: Wade Reminds Us Why We'll Miss HimNo More Excuses, Florida PanthersTannehill: Requiem For A QuarterbackWhatever Happened to Kenyan Drake? NFL 2018 Team RankingsDolphins? Heat? Nope. UM Football Owns This TownNFL Enters Year 3 Of Anthem-Protest QuagmireTo The Good-Guy Grinder In The ShadesTime to Flip the Old Narrative On Miami As a Sports TownCan Riley Rescue Heat From Purgatory? When 3 World Cup Legends Were Ours.

Revisit our blog often because we update and add to our latest posts throughout the day.

Twitter @gregcote

November 01, 2018

Time for faith in Canes' Richt, and patience, not doubt. My latest column; plus Dolphin-slayer wins week in Herald NFL QB rankings, Pix 'n Fantasy results, Fins' Tannehill dilemma, Cote's college State of State rank & more

GREG COTE'S RANDOM EVIDENCE BLOG: MIAMI. SPORTS. AND BEYOND.

Haphall 1) It's THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 1. Hope y'all had a safe and happy Halloween. Happy new month, all! Welcome, November. Seems like we've been waiting a year! 2) Visit Greg Cote Tuesday for the best-of podcast of this week's LeBatard Show on ESPN Radio/ESPNews. 3) Football season means it's the right time to delight Dolfans you know with our 'Fins At 50' book. Check it out on Amazon. 4) In The Previous Blogpost (ITPB): Hot Button Top 10 & more. 5) Join us on Twitter @gregcote. Also Facebook and Instagram.

Newest column: Defending Mark Richt. Two losses in row not time to recalibrate faith: The Hurricanes coach is feeling a little heat for the first time in his 2 1/2 seasons with UM. It is unwarranted. For my latest column, visit Time For Faith In Richt, And Patience.

Our other most recent stuff: Moving Beyond Tannehill Smart But Not Easy For Dolphins. Also: Dolphins fans vent frustration: Dolfans, Your Team Is Not Easy To Love. On Fins head coach: Snakebit Adam. On N'Kosi Perry's lap-cash video: Family Tradition. And on Marlins signing Victor Victor Mesa and Victor Jr.: Victory-y, Miami!

DwatsonDOLPHIN-SLAYING WATSON WINS WEEK / MIAMI HERALD NFL QB RANKINGS / WEEK 8: The Texans' Deshaun Watson (pictured) scored a 43.95-point game Thursday night in beating Miami and it held up for Week 8 honors (edging Chief Patrick Mahomes by less than one point) in the Herald's latest NFL quarterback rankings. Viking Kirk Cousins maintains his season lead and Mahomes rises to second overall. Because our rankings are cumulative, players on a bye week take a temporary hit that evens out over the course of a season. Dolphin Brock Osweiler, filling in for injured Ryan Tannehill, slumped to his worst game of three and sticks in 32nd place. This is our 21st season of Passer Success System (PASS) NFL QB rankings. Our formula is simple and unchanged since its inception in 1998, factoring accuracy, yardage, TD-interception ratio and team result. Most major ranking systems such as the NFL's and ESPN's are complicated and percentile based, allowing QBs who miss half a season to still win a title, while our system is cumulative, rewarding players who are consistently productive and avoid injury or benching. The Top 15 table (plus Dolphins) entering Week 9:

MIAMI HERALD PASS RANKINGS / WEEK 8
RK    LW    Player, Team                        WK8          Season

1       1       Kirk Cousins, MIN                 41.95         325.55

2       4       Patrick Mahomes, KC            43.15         310.30

3       3       Drew Brees, NO                   24.00         301.50

4       5       Jared Goff, LAR                   31.75         286.25

5       2       Matt Ryan, ATL                     BYE           281.70

6       7       Andrew Luck, IND                38.95         277.35

7       8       Tom Brady, NE                      34.20         270.00

8       6       Philip Rivers, LAC                 BYE           251.40

9       10     Ben Roethlisberger, PIT        32.85         248.50

10     9       Eli Manning, NYG                  25.80         244.85

11     13     Andy Dalton, CIN                  33.00         235.10

12     17     Deshaun Watson, HOU          43.95         232.80

13     12     Aaron Rodgers, GB                23.30         231.65

14     14     Carson Wentz, PHI                37.30         230.40

15     15     Derek Carr, OAK                   35.20         227.35

28     27     Ryan Tannehill, MIA              DNP           112.60

32     32     Brock Osweiler, MIA             14.05           91.75

Bubble: Joe Flacco, BAL, 226.95. Week 8 best: Watson, HOU, 43.95 (16-20, 239, 5-0 in win). Week 8 worst: Jameis Winston, TB, 5.80 (18-35, 276, 1-4 in loss).

Picks LobosNFL WEEK 8 PIX 'N FANTASY RESULTS: EXCELLENCE AND HEARTACHE: Every Tuesday in the blog I update you on how I did the past weekend with my Miami Herald predictions and with my LeBatard Show/League Of Lobos fantasy team. The latest: Herald picks: Excellence! Spun a terrific 12-2 mark straight-up and an even more impressive 11-3 against the spread in Week 8. That included another Upset of the Week bull's-eye on Seahawks winning at Lions ("Aawwk!"), a pair of 'dogs-with-points in Packers and Bucs, and a couple of mini-upsets with wins by Cardinals and Saints. Also was spot-on with Dolphins' Thursday loss. (See Week 8 Gems for proof). Greg's Lobos: Heartache. Built a 22-point lead over Roy entering Monday night led by 31 from Deshaun Watson and 26.6 from Adrian Peterson -- only to see Roy get a combined 27 on MNF from Tom Brady and Stephen Gostkowski for a 122.7 to 117.3 win. We're 3-5 now, but still only one game off playoff pace with five weeks left in the regular season. #WeAreTheLobos

COTE'S STATE OF THE STATE RANKINGS: Each Tuesday I rank the state's seven FBS-level college football teams. The latest: 1. UCF (7-0); 2. Florida (6-2); 3. Miami (5-3); 4. South Florida (7-1); 5. Florida State (4-4); 6. FIU (6-2); 7. FAU (3-5).

Other select recent columns: When the Dolphins D Was A Letter GradeWade Reminds Us Why We'll Miss HimNo More Excuses, Florida PanthersTannehill: Requiem For A QuarterbackKid QB Passes His Big TestWhatever Happened to Kenyan Drake? NFL 2018 Team RankingsDolphins? Heat? Nope. UM Football Owns This TownNFL Enters Year 3 Of Anthem-Protest QuagmireTo The Good-Guy Grinder In The ShadesTime to Flip the Old Narrative On Miami As a Sports TownCan Riley Rescue Heat From Purgatory? When 3 World Cup Legends Were Ours.

Revisit our blog often because we update and add to our latest posts throughout the day.

Twitter @gregcote

October 28, 2018

Canesfan Satisfaction Meter: 7.8% (season low); plus UM falls at BC 27-14, now 5-3 as ACC title-game hopes take huge hit. Our thoughts; plus it ain't easy being a Dolfan (latest column), other state Collball (Gators fall, FIU wins) & more

GREG COTE'S RANDOM EVIDENCE BLOG: MIAMI. SPORTS. AND BEYOND.

1) It's SATURDAY, OCTOBER 27. Check out the latest Dolfan Satisfaction Meter (DSM) vote here. Ouch. It's a season low. 2) I've been a Red Sox fan since 1967. They're back in the World Series. Hell NO  I didn't stay up 7 hours until 3 a.m. for  last night's 18-inning game, are you insane!? 3) Football season means it's the right time to delight Dolfans you know with our 'Fins At 50' book. Check it out on Amazon. 4) In The Previous Blogpost (ITPB): Dolphins get clobbered in Houston with DSM poll, NFL Week 8 picks & more. 5) Join us on Twitter @gregcote. Also Facebook and Instagram.

IT AIN'T EAST BEING A DOLFAN (NEW COLUMN): Hundreds of Miami Dolphins fans told me what it's like to be Dolfan. Their answers informed my latest column. To read the venting and frustration, visit Dolfans, Your Team Is Not Easy To Love. My other most recent work: Latest NFL picks: Week 8 Gems. Dolphins' coach is more than competent, he's just: Snakebit Adam. N'Kosi Perry's cash video isn't Canes outrage, it's a: Family Tradition. And Marlins signing Victor Victor Mesa and Victor Jr., it's: Victory-y, Miami! 

CsmCANESFAN SATISFACTION METER: G8: 7.8%: Results are certified in the latest Canesfan Satisfaction Meter postgame poll, and they show a season-low 7.8 percent overall approval -- the combination of "very" and "somewhat" satisfied votes -- in the wake of Friday night's 27-14 UM loss at Boston College putting Miami's season record at 5-3 overall and 2-2 in the ACC. The CSM is your invitation after every Canes football game -- no matter the result or opponent -- to vote on your overall satisfaction with the team and season in a continuing weekly gauge of how UM football fans are feeling. Criteria for voting is your own, but I suggest you consider the most recent game's performance and caliber of opponent, the season as a whole, the program's direction and your overall degree of optimism -- all in the context of reasonable expectations. Results are certified official the morning after one full day of voting. In this case that was around 10:15 a.m. today/Sunday. (The CSM also takes place on my Twitter site @gregcote. The vote there was 16% approval).

2018 CSM game-by game results

G1: 9.2% following 33-17 loss to LSU.

G2: 73.8% following 77-0 victory vs. Savannah State.

G3: 76.7% following 49-24 victory at Toledo.

G4: 84.0% following 31-17 victory vs. FIU.

G5: 98.7% following 47-10 victory vs. North Carolina.

G6: 91.1% following 28-27 victory vs. FSU.

G7: 13.0% following 16-13 loss at Virginia.

G8: 7.8% following 27-14 loss at Boston College.

Next poll: Nov. 3 following game vs. Duke. 

G8: @BOSTON COLLEGE 27, HURRICANES 14: SECOND STRAIGHT LOSS DROPS UM TO 5-3Postgame thoughts: We called the (slight) upset win by host Boston College. The score was legit, indicative of the flow of the game. Malik Rosier (two picks, one his fault) did not score enough. Mostly, the vaunted Canes defense allowed almost 450 yards of BC offense. Miami now 5-3, a Bc Theusharp step back from last season thus far, and a return to the ACC title game now an unlikelihood ..... Original post: When we last left the Canes they were falling 16-13 at Virginia, falling to a 5-2 record , and falling like a rock from No. 16 clean out of the national polls. (I put out a "Nervous Night Alert" for that game and was right!) Well, now, after a bye week, it doesn't get any easier for The U, folks. Tonight's 7 o'clock game at Boston College before ESPN cameras will be a rugged challenge. Both teams are 5-2 and 2-1 in the ACC. UM needs a win to keep a realistic hope of getting back to the conference championship game, but the Canes are modest 3 1/2 point favorites in temps expected in the 40s, and a win by the BC Eagles should shock nobody. Malik Rosier is back starting at QB for Miami as Mark Richt continues to waffle between his veteran and redshirt-freshman N'Kosi Perry. Rosier is back on merit, Richt says, although Perry's infamous cash-money video surely made returning to Rosier easier. Boston College also is coming off a bye, and is 4-0 at home. Miami has dominated the all-time series, 24-5, but the most recent meeting (2012) predating all the current players lessens the significance of that trend. Miami's stout defense vs. premier BC running back A.J. Dillon will be a key tonight. A shaky Canes offensive line giving Rosier time to operate also will be important. The return of BC's Dillon from injury and the weather magnifying the Eagles' home-field edge tips this coin-flip prediction. My pick: Boston College, 24-20.

OTHER STATE COLLBALL: There are seven FBS-level college teams in Florida. Here's chronological Week 9 schedule for the rest (all Saturday unless noted otherwise):

Louisiana Tech (6-2) beats FAU (3-5), 21-13: Owls were favored by 3 1/2 in the Boca nest, but Lane Kiffin saw FAU's 10-game home win streak end Friday night as his humbling sophomore season continued. Lane Train: Derailed.

No. 2 Clemson (8-0) beats FSU (4-4), 59-10: This final weekend before first College Football Playoff ranking would have been a really bad time for the Tigers, 17-point favorites, to fall. Um, no chance. A scoreless first quarter turned into an avalanche that buried the Noles.

No. 7 Georgia (7-1) beats No. 9 Florida (6-2), 36-17: World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party in neutral-site Jacksonville might have been the college Game of the Year going in, but, after Gators hung in for awhile, it was quite the mismatch. Favored Dawgs earned an inside lane to reach SEC title game and also gets to believe it still has a shot at sneaking up into CFP top four.

Houston (7-1) beats No. 21 South Florida (7-1), 57-36: Big American conference duel found USF a 7 1/2-point road 'dog with good reason. Farewell polls, Bulls!

FIU (6-2) beats Western Kentucky (1-7), 38-17: FIU was a mere 3-point road favorite but the ButchCats rolled to a huge, bowl-assuring victory.

Off this week: No. 10 UCF (7-0); next vs. Temple Thursday Nov. 1.

Week 9 national Top 25 matchups (3): No. 9 Florida vs. No. 7 Georgia (see above); 17-Penn State beats 18-Iowa 30-24; and 14-Washington State beats 24-Stanford 41-38.

Other select recent columns: When the Dolphins D Was A Letter GradeWade Reminds Us Why We'll Miss HimNo More Excuses, Florida PanthersTannehill: Requiem For A QuarterbackKid QB Passes His Big TestWhatever Happened to Kenyan Drake? NFL 2018 Team RankingsDolphins? Heat? Nope. UM Football Owns This TownNFL Enters Year 3 Of Anthem-Protest QuagmireTo The Good-Guy Grinder In The ShadesTime to Flip the Old Narrative On Miami As a Sports TownCan Riley Rescue Heat From Purgatory? When 3 World Cup Legends Were Ours.

Revisit our blog often because we update and add to our latest posts throughout the day.

Twitter @gregcote

October 24, 2018

Osweiler's (modest) climb in Herald Week 7 NFL QB rankings; plus Radio Tuesday, Go Red Sox!, Pix 'n Fantasy results (Go Lobos!), Cote's college State of the State rank & more

GREG COTE'S RANDOM EVIDENCE BLOG: MIAMI. SPORTS. AND BEYOND.

1) It's WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 24. Football season means it's the right time to delight Dolfans you know with our 'Fins At 50' book. Check it out on Amazon. 2) In The Previous Blogpost (ITPB): Dolphins fall at home to Detroit with DSM poll, Hot Button Top 10, your Perry vs. Rosier verdict & more. 3) Join us on Twitter @gregcote. Also Facebook and Instagram.

Most recent columns: On Marlins' big signings, Dolphins' defensive collapse, Wade's home debut: On Monday's big Marlins signings: Victor-y as Marlins Land Victor Victor and Victor! On Sunday's Dolphins home loss: When the Dolphins D Was A Letter Grade. And on Saturday's home-opening Heat loss: Wade Reminds Us Why We'll Miss Him.

WsGO RED SOX! BEAT THE DODGERS!: This is a perfectly impartial note from a neutral journalist as the World Series begins tonight at Fenway Park. Please understand. Though I'm a South Floridian since early childhood, I was born in Massachusetts. The Patriots were never big with me as a kid. Neither were the Bruins. The Celtics were second. But it was the Red Sox, clearly, that had me. Carl Yastrzemski and that 1967 Impossible Dream season hooked me. I named my first cat Yaz. That season and that team and that man kindled the love of sports that would, somehow, lead to a lifelong career writing about it. So, yeah: Go Red Sox!

RYAN SNATCHES WEEK FROM MAHOMES / MIAMI HERALD NFL QB RANKINGS / WEEK 7: Falcons' Matt Ryan (pictured) scored a 49.95-point game Monday night to narrowly win Week 7 honors Mryanover Chief Patrick Mahomes' 48.90 in the Herald's latest NFL quarterback rankings. Viking Kirk Cousins maintains his season lead and Ryan bumps up into second ahead of Saint Drew Brees. Because our rankings are cumulative, players on a bye week take a temporary hit that evens out over the course of a season. Dolphin Brock Osweiler, filling in for injured Ryan Tannehill, scored a 30.95-point game tto move up three spots to 32nd overall. This is our 21st season of Passer Success System (PASS) NFL QB rankings. Our formula is simple and unchanged since its inception in 1998, factoring accuracy, yardage, TD-interception ratio and team result. (Formula detailed below). Most major ranking systems such as the NFL's and ESPN's are complicated and percentile based, allowing QBs who miss half a season to still win a title, while our system is cumulative, rewarding players who are consistently productive and avoid injury or benching. The Top 15 table (plus Dolphins) entering Week 8:

MIAMI HERALD PASS RANKINGS / WEEK 7
RK    LW    Player, Team                        WK7           Season

1       1       Kirk Cousins, MIN                  33.05         283.60

2       3       Matt Ryan, ATL                     49.95         281.70

3       2       Drew Brees, NO                    35.60         277.50

4       5       Patrick Mahomes, KC            48.90         267.15

5       4       Jared Goff, LAR                   33.10          254.50

6       7       Philip Rivers, LAC                 38.30         251.40

7       9       Andrew Luck, IND                 35.80         238.40

8       10     Tom Brady, NE                      38.85         235.80

9       14     Eli Manning, NYG                  38.95         219.05

10     6       Ben Roethlisberger, PIT          BYE           215.65

11     13     Joe Flacco, BAL                    26.95         215.35

12     8       Aaron Rodgers, GB                 BYE           208.35

13     11     Andy Dalton, CIN                    8.40          202.10

14     21     Carson Wentz, PHI                44.50          193.10

15     12     Derek Carr, OAK                     BYE           192.15

27     27     Ryan Tannehill, MIA                DNP          112.60

32     35     Brock Osweiler, MIA               30.95         77.70

Bubble: Matthew Stafford, 191.10. Week 7 best: Ryan, ATL, 49.95 (31-39, 379, 1-0 in win). Week 7 worst: Sam Darnold, NYJ, minus-3.70 (17-42, 206, 1-3 in loss). Points formula: Accuracy—Completions times two minus attempts. Ex: 17 for 28 = 6 points. Yardage—Five percent of total. Ex: 202 yards = 10.10 points. TD-interception ratio—Difference times three. Ex: Four TDs and one pick = 9 points. Team result—Winning QB of record = 5 points.

Picks LobosNFL WEEK 7 PIX 'N FANTASY RESULTS: STUMBLE, RISE: Every Tuesday in the blog I update you on how I did the past weekend with my Miami Herald predictions and with my LeBatard Show/League Of Lobos fantasy team. The latest: Herald picks: Stumble. Endured our worst showing both ways in Week 7, going 8-6 overall and 4-9-1 against the spread, with the Bucs win pushing at 3. Miserable misfire on our Upset of the Week (Jets) and also blew the Dolphins game. Not much to do but move on. Fast! Greg's Lobos: Rise. Improved to 3-4 and ended a 4-game losing streak with a 132.4 to 95.5 obliteration of Dan's team. The Lobos got 24 points from the Rams defense, 22.8 from Zach Ertz and 20.6 from Tyreek (Money) Hill to lead the parade. Still time for that majestic run to the playoffs! #WeAreTheLobos

COTE'S STATE OF THE STATE RANKINGS: Each Tuesday I rank the state's seven FBS-level college football teams. The latest: 1. UCF (7-0); 2. Florida (6-1); 3. Miami (5-2); 4. South Florida (7-0); 5. Florida State (4-3); 6. FIU (5-2); 7. FAU (3-4).

Other select recent columns: Dolphins Are Fun For A Change, and Playoff-GoodNo More Excuses, Florida PanthersTannehill: Requiem For A QuarterbackWith All D.Wade Has Meant, One Year to Say Goodbye Might Not Be EnoughKid QB Passes His Big TestWhatever Happened to Kenyan Drake? NFL 2018 Team RankingsDolphins? Heat? Nope. UM Football Owns This TownNFL Enters Year 3 Of Anthem-Protest QuagmireTo The Good-Guy Grinder In The ShadesTime to Flip the Old Narrative On Miami As a Sports TownCan Riley Rescue Heat From Purgatory? When 3 World Cup Legends Were Ours.

Revisit our blog often because we update and add to our latest posts throughout the day.

Twitter @gregcote

October 23, 2018

Dolfan Satisfacton Meter: 8.9%; plus defense fails Miami in 32-21 loss to Detroit; also, Wade column off home-opening Heat loss, latest Hot Button Top 10 (updated), your Perry vs. Rosier verdict & more

GREG COTE'S RANDOM EVIDENCE BLOG: MIAMI. SPORTS. AND BEYOND.

1) It's MONDAY, OCTOBER 22. Football season means it's the right time to delight Dolfans you know with our 'Fins At 50' book. Check it out on Amazon. 2) In The Previous Blogpost (ITPB): Hurricanes bye-week to-do list with Perry vs. Rosier poll, Heat home opener, other state Collball & more. 3) Join us on Twitter @gregcote. Also Facebook and Instagram.

On Dolphins' defensive collapse: Oh let us count all the ways the Dolphins defense embarrassed itself at home Sunday in the 32-21 loss to Detroit. To peruse my column from the stadium, visit: When the Dolphins D Was A Letter Grade. 

Wade shines in Heat rally, but Miami loses home opener: Heat trailed by 26, fought back but lost 113-112 in Saturday's home opener behind Dwyane Wade's 21 points to begin his "Last Dance" season. For my column: Wade Reminds Us Why We'll Miss Him.

Select other recent columns: Dolphins Are Fun For A Change, and Playoff-GoodNo More Excuses, Florida PanthersTannehill: Requiem For A Quarterback. And With All D.Wade Has Meant, One Year to Say Goodbye Might Not Be Enough.

DOLFAN SATISFACTION METER: G7: 8.9%: Results are certified in the latest Dolfan Satisfaction Meter postgame poll, and they show 8.9 percent overall approval -- the combination of "very"
Dsmand "somewhat" satisfied votes -- in the wake of Sunday's 32-21 Dolphins home loss to Detroit putting Miami's season record 4-3. The DSM is a continuous weekly gauge of how Dolfans are feeling about the team and its direction. Right after each game I invite you to share your overall degree of satisfaction. Criteria for voting is your own, but I suggest fans consider the most recent game's performance and caliber of opponent, season as a whole, direction the club is heading and your overall degree of optimism -- all in the context of reasonable expectations. Results are certified official the morning after one full day of voting. In this case that was around 7 a.m. today/Tuesday. (The DSM also takes place on our Twitter site @gregcote. The approval rate there was 25 percent).

2018 DSM game-by-game results

G1: 86.8% following 27-20 victory vs. Tennessee.

G2: 93.4% following 20-12 victory at N.Y. Jets.

G3: 96.2% following 28-20 victory vs. Oakland.

G4: 17.2% following 38-7 loss at New England.

G5: 6.4% following 27-17 loss at Cincinnati.

G6: 75.0% following 31-28 OT victory vs. Chicago.

G7: 8.9% following 32-21 loss vs. Detroit.

Next poll: Oct. 25 following game at Houston.

G7: DETROIT 32, @DOLPHINS 21: 'MR. BROCKTOBER' CONTINUED TO SHINE. IT WAS FINS' DEFENSE THAT STUNKPostgame thoughts: For my full game column: When the Dolphins D Was A Letter Grade. How clear the blame for this loss. It isn't on Brock Osweiler. He was great. Even betgter than last week. This was on the defense. Period and unequivocally. Miami could not stop Matthew Stafford or the Detroit passing game,and could not stop Kerryon Johnson or the Lions ground game. The Fins defense got beaten all day, from the very first play. Miami now 4-3 and sure to be a huge underdog this Thursday night in Houston. That 3-0 start seems a long time ago now. ..... Halftime thoughts: Could Miami's defense be any worse? How are the Fins only down by 10 at 17-7? Matthew Stafford has a near-perfect 140.9 passer rating. Lions backs are one yard shy of averaging 10 yards per carry (14-139). Offensively, Brock Osweiler has been solid (11-13, 103 yards, one TD) but there is zero space for any sort of ground game. The 10-point deficit feels unusually big .....Original post: Dolphins are 4-2 including 3-0 at home, Lions arrive 2-3 and yet Detroit is a 2 1/2-point betting favorite for DetmiaSunday's 1 p.m. kickoff. Not sure I get that. Did you notice how the Bears were wheezing late in last week’s game like me after five flights of stairs? What, you thought it might be an ankle injury or mighty Dolphins blocking that made Khalil Mack disappear? Welcome to 1 o’clock games in hot, humid Miami. And now here come the Lions, from the mild temps of their home dome into the Hades-on-Earth that is South Florida — conditions the Dolphins practice in. Miami has scored 46 points in the fourth quarter of its three home games, because opposing defenses are wilting like week-old roses by then. Did I mention Detroit is 0-2 on the road? I rarely factor heat as favoring either team, but it’s something tangible here this time of year. It makes Miami too tempting a home ‘dog to pass by. Yes, Ryan Tannehill out again (shoulder) and Brock Osweiler in again concerns me. Don’t delude yourself that Osweiler is as good. Then again Miami’s offense was electric last week with Osweiler — the Wizard Of Os, Mr. Brocktober — and the Lions’ defense isn’t as good as Chicago’s. Motown allows 27.4 points per game and is especially generous against the run, inviting a big day by Frank Gore/Kenyan Drake. (Lions worked out Gore in free agency this summer but said no-thanks, so Frank will be extra-pumped Sunday). Could be looking at a shootout. Some of that is Matthew Stafford. And some of it is the heat/humidity toll on the visitors. Give me the game-changing speed of Albert Wilson, Jakeem Grant and Kenny Stills over a bunch of sweating, sagging defenders Almost forgot: Detroit’s offensive coordinator is named "Jim Bob Cooter," if you needed one more reason to like the Fins. Upset! My pick: Dolphins, 27-23.

Visit Week 7 Gems for all of our latest FL picks.

HOT BUTTON TOP 10 (UPDATED): WHAT SOUTH FLORIDA SPORTS FANS ARE TALKING ABOUT: Our blog-exclusive every-Sunday feature, updated Mondays, is part week-in-review, part look-ahead. Hot Button means what's on our minds, locally and nationally, from a Miami perspective, as the sports week just past pivots to the week ahead. This week's HB10:

Hotbutton1. HEAT: Home-opening loss caps Opening Week: After a 1-1 split on the road Miami was awful (trailed by 26) and brilliant (rallied heroically) in its home opener Saturday before falling to Charlotte, 113-112. Dwyane Wade had a team-high 21 points to begin his "Last Dance" season before the home fans. He's not as good as he once was, but he's as good, once, as he ever was.

2. DOLPHINS: Miami falls to Detroit in defensive collapse: The Dolphins and fill-in QB Brock Osweiler were pretty brilliant in beating Chicago last week. Osweiler was solid again Sunday vs. Detroit. The rest of the Dolphins, not so much in a 32-21 home loss.

3. MARLINS: Fish reel in major double-signing of Cuban brothers: Fish on Monday will formally announce the signing of highly regarded Cuban outfield brothers Victor Victor Mesa, 22, and kid bro Victor Mesa Jr., 17. Yes, the more MLB-ready of the two Mesas is named Victor Victor. I guess among the many things in short supply in Cuba are middle names!

4. MLB: It's a Red Sox-Dodgers World Series!: The rested Boston Red Sox will meet Saturday's Game 7-winning Los Angeles Dodgers in the World Series beginning Tuesday night at Fenway Park. Sox have won more recently, but hard-to-like L.A. is led by mouthy Yasiel Puig and dirty Manny Machado. Lesser of two evils, anyone?

5. HURRICANES: UM on bye, preps for Boston College trip: Canes are enjoying an off-week. Although "enjoying" may not be the right word, coming off a bad loss at Virginia, preparing for a dangerous game at Boston College and stuck in a waffling QB situation. It's back to Malik Rosier ... for now.

6. PANTHERS: Cats finally win after 0-4 start: Florida has now played six games in the new NHL season and lost five after last night's 4-3 overtime home loss to a bad Detroit team. The Panthers wanted a fast start. What they've gotten is a fall into frigid water through thin, cracked ice.

7. COLLEGE FOOTBALL: Ohio State loss shakes things up: The first College Football Playoff ranking is due out Oct. 30. And with Saturday's loss by No. 2 Ohio State (don't we all feel bad for Urban!?), all that's assured as of now is Alabama, Ohio State and Clemson in the coveted top four, and UCF moaning and complaining to whomever will listen.

8. FIU: ButchCats continue strong season: FIU is 5-2 with last night's 36-17 home win over Rice. Remember how last season FAU's Lane Kiffin was Wonder Boy in overshadowing FIU's Butch Davis in the rivals' battle of new coaches? The ButchCats have flipped the script.

9. RAE CARRUTH: Imprisoned NFL'er set for release: Former Carolina Panthers player Rae Carruth is scheduled to become a free man Monday after nearly 19 years behind bars for a 1999 conviction for planning the murder of his pregnant girlfriend. Odds he'll find work before Colin Kaepernick?

10. NASCAR: Vrooom! Homestead finale getting close: Sunday's race at Kansas means only three races are left before the season-ending Nov. 18 grand championship at Homestead-Miami Motor Speedway. Gentlemen, start your engines three more times ... and then start 'em for real. 

Missing the HB10 cut: Admit it. You're a little bit delighted at LeBron James' Lakers are 0-2 ..... Update: Countdown now 2,801 days (give or take) until Miami hosts its first match in the 2026 World Cup.

POLL RESULT: YOU WANT PERRY OVER ROSIER AS CANES QB: We asked, "Who would you prefer to see as the Hurricanes' starting quarterback the rest of this season?" And you had it N'Losi Perry over Malik Rosier just over a 2-to-1 margin -- 68.82 percent to 31.18%.

Other select recent columns: Kid QB Passes His Big TestWhatever Happened to Kenyan Drake? NFL 2018 Team RankingsDolphins? Heat? Nope. UM Football Owns This TownNFL Enters Year 3 Of Anthem-Protest QuagmireTo The Good-Guy Grinder In The ShadesTime to Flip the Old Narrative On Miami As a Sports TownCan Riley Rescue Heat From Purgatory? When 3 World Cup Legends Were Ours.

Revisit our blog often because we update and add to our latest posts throughout the day.

Twitter @gregcote