GREG COTE'S RANDOM EVIDENCE BLOG: MIAMI. SPORTS. AND BEYOND.
1) It is TUESDAY, SEPTEMBER 13. Yesterday was the 15th anniversary of 9/11. Take a moment, as we celebrate football, to reflect -- and not only once a year. Never forget! 2) Because this blogpost is so crowded, the latest Hot Button Top 10 will hit the blog early Tuesday morning this week. 3) In The Previous Blogpost (ITPB): Upset Bird in America and NFL Week 1 picks, King Sport unfurls with Super Bowl poll, heaviest-bet NFL over/unders, economic study slams subsidies for Marlins and others, your verdict on Heat's biggest acquisition & more. 4) Join us on Twitter @gregcote. Also Facebook, Instagram, Vine, Periscope and Snapchat.
Recent columns, ICYMI or wanted another look: Click on Week 1 Gems for our NFL picks and on Fearful Forecast for our divisional and Super Bowl predictions. Awesome Vs. Awful (on UM's resounding season-opening victory over Florida A&M). Now Can Dolphins, UM Look as Good as the Place They Call Home? (Hard Rock unveiled). NFL Ranking (Best to worst teams, 1 through 32). Brad Kaaya (on UM's key player). She Never Quit (on FIU coach Ron Turner's inspiration). And Kaepernick's Protest Does Not Make Him Un-American (QB sits to take a stand).
Dolfan Satisfaction Meter returns!: The ninth season of our blog's DSM postgame polls debuts immediately below, followed by our postgame thoughts.
DOLFAN SATISFACTION METER: G1: 52.5%: Results are certified in the season-opening launch of the ninth season of Dolfan Satisfaction Meter postgame polls, and they show 52.5 percent overall satisfaction -- the combination of "very" and "somewhat" satisfied votes -- in the wake of Sunday's 12-10 Miami loss at Seattle. The DSM is a continuous weekly gauge of how fans are feeling about the Dolphins and their direction. Right after each game I invite you to share your overall degree of satisfaction. Criteria for voting is your own, but I suggest fans consider the most recent game's performance and caliber of opponent, season as a whole, direction the club is heading and your overall degree of optimism -- all in the context of reasonable expectations. Results are certified official the day after one full day of voting. In this case that was around 6:30 a.m. today/Tuesday.
Analyzing the vote: Plus-50 is an unusually satisfied vote total following a loss, but it reflects the caliber of opponent on the road. The total was fueled by 43.4 percent "somewhat" satisfied, so the overall percentage has the potential to drop sharply if the performance in New England disappoints.
2016 DSM results
G1: 52.5% (following 12-10 loss at Seattle)
Next poll: Sept. 18 (following game at New England)
Yearly DSM Results: 2015--18.1% (following 6-10 season); 2014--2.7% (8-8); 2013--4.2% (8-8); 2012--29.8% (7-9); 2011--34.9% (6-10); 2010--3.8% (7-9); 2009--31.2% (7-9); 2008--96.9% (11-5/playoff loss).
G1: SEATTLE 12, DOLPHINS 10 (FINAL): SEAHAWKS SCORE IN FINAL MINUTE TO SPOIL OPENING-GAME SHOCKER: Postgame thoughts: If there are moral victories, this was one. Miami was the biggest Kickoff Weekend underdog in the entire NFL at Seattle on Sunday but it took a last-minute TD to beat Miami 12-10. Coaches and players won't admit it, but the Dolphins have to fly home encouraged to have gone toe to toe with an opponent many peg for the Super Bowl. I'd be surprised if most Dolfans were not encouraged as well. There were signs of encouragement on both sides of the line. The Miami team we just saw, even in defeat, is one that can compete for a playoff spot. ..... In-game: SEA up 12-10 with 38 seconds left on Wilson-Baldwin 2-yard scoring pass, but then Hawks miss extra point ... Tannehill 2-yard keeper has MIA up 10-6 with 4:08 left. Can the Fins shock the world? ... Just got back from a day of travel from Syracuse (wedding) to jinx the Dolphins. First live action I saw on my TV was Miami 1st and goal from the Seattle 5, after which they fizzled and then missed a short tying FG. ..... Original post: This thought or something like it must have occurred to new Dolphins coach Adam Gase if he noted the crosstown Miami Hurricanes won their season opener 70-3 over a much, much lesser opponent: Whatever the NFL
polar opposite of that soft opening is ... the Fins are hitting it head-on in Sunday's 4:05 p.m. kickoff of Miami's 51st season. King Sport might not have two scarier words to offer up than "at Seattle." Miami is a league-high 10 1/2-point underdog not only because most experts expect more mediocrity from the team, but because the Seahawks are really good -- dreaming Super Bowl-good -- and Seattle enjoys as strong a home-field advantage as any team in the league. That 2-2 preseason didn't tell us much about these Dolphins, but that shouldn't take long Sunday. Quick history lesson: Game 1 results matter, historically. They are a harbinger. Super Bowl winners were 40-9-1 on opening day. Since the advent of the 16-game season in 1978, teams that started 1-0 made the playoffs 52.2 percent of the time, versus 23.9% for teams that began 0-1. Similar trends for Miami. Dolphins at 1-0 have made the playoffs 16 of 27 times (59.3%), versus 5 of 22 times (22.7%) at 0-1. (That excludes one season-opening tie, in 1971). Running backs under a glare in this opener, on both sides. Arian Foster won Miami's starting job, Jay Ajayi didn't like that, pouted, and was left back in Miami. For Seattle, Marshawn Lynch's replacement Thomas Rawls will play on a tender ankle and be limited. Quick aside to Mr. Ajayi: Foster has accomplished a lot. You have not. Pay your dues. Be a team player. Grow up. Click here for my MIA-SEA prediction capsule. My pick: Seahawks, 30-16.
G2: NO. 25 HURRICANES 38, FLORIDA ATLANTIC 10: [Note: We'll be unable to live-blog during tonight's game but will be back late tonight with postgame thoughts}. Routine win. Mark Walton and Joe Yearby with a combined 276 rushing yards. ..... Original post: Saturday's 6 p.m. home game back at The Rock surely will be a harder test for Miami than last week's embarrassingly easy 70-3 rout of overmatched Florida A&M. (What wouldn't be?) Still, It would be a surprise if the 24 1/2-point-favorite Canes didn't ease past Florida Atlantic without much sweat or threat. Owls have a bit of offensive punch led by quarterback Jason Driskel, have recruited well lately and are on the ascent in Conference USA, but FAU lacks the defensive firepower to bother UM QB Brad Kaaya and his deep ground game. Also, Miami is ranked now for the first time since 2013 (up one spot to No. 25) and is too good and also too well-coached to suffer what would an early-season stumble of some magnitude. UM will be tested next week at Appalachian State as roughly a one-touchdown favorite, but that's later. Blinders on tonight. That's coaching, too. My pick: Hurricanes 45-17.
CANESFAN SATISFACTION METER: G2: 91.9%: Results are certified in the latest Canesfan Satisfaction Meter postgame poll, and they show 91.9 percent overall satisfaction -- the combination of "very" and "somewhat" satisfied votes -- in the wake of Saturday's 38-10 home victory vs. Florida Atlantic putting UM's season record at 2-0. This the eighth season of our blog's CSM postgame polls, which are your invitation after every Hurricanes football game to vote on your overall satisfaction with the team and season in a continuing weekly gauge of how UM fans are feeling. Criteria for voting is your own, but I suggest you consider the most recent game's performance and caliber of opponent, the season as a whole, the program's direction and your overall degree of optimism -- all in the context of reasonable expectations. Results are certified official the morning after one full day of voting. In this case that was around 9 a.m. today/Monday.
2016 Canesfan Satisfaction Meter
G1: 97.2% following 70-3 victory vs. Florida A&M
G2: 91.9% following 38-10 victory vs. Florida Atlantic
Next poll: Sept. 17 following game at Appalachian State
Other FBS Week 2 football:
Maryland 41, FIU 14: The Int'l now 0-2 after blowout loss Friday night in which Terps rolled over Panthers with 477 yards of offense. FIU was only one of seven state FBS teams to open with loss last week, and disappointed in Game 2 as 10 1/2-point 'dogs.
No. 3 Florida State 52, Charleston-Southern 8: Whatever Jimbo Fisher said at halftime Monday night, bottle it and sell it. Thought FSU might beat suspension-ravaged Cha-So by about a hundred points if they wanted.
Florida 45, Kentucky 7: Gators were bumped from No. 25 by Miami but were a comfy 16 1/2-point pick. Maybe because UF has beaten KY 29 times in a row in da Swamp. Gators back in poll this week.
Other state FBS games: No. 5 Michigan whipped UCF 51-14, and South Florida beat Northern Illinois 48-17.
National Collball Week 2 overview: We had the heart-pounding opening. Now comes the slow exhale. No. 3 Oklahoma led the sad parade of poll-jarring upset losers last week, but Week 2 should be noticeably calmer, with not a single Top 25 team facing a ranked opponent.
Poll result: Packers your pick to win Super Bowl, but it's wide open: We asked for your Super Bowl pick among betting favorites, and you had it Packers 19.7 percent, Panthers, Seahawks and Cardinals all knotted at 13.5%, Steelers 11.2%, Patriots 10.3% and Broncos 3.1%. The other 15.2% voted "other."
Revisit our blog often because we update and add to our latest posts throughout the day.
Twitter @gregcote
Comments