GREG COTE'S RANDOM EVIDENCE BLOG: MIAMI. SPORTS. AND BEYOND.
1) It is THURSDAY, APRIL 28. Heat an early 1.5-point underdog in Game 6 at Charlotte Friday. 2) Click here for Rolling Stone review (and videos) of Beyonce's world-tour opening concert last night at Marlins Park. 3) In The Previous Blogpost (ITPB): Heat home loss makes it 3-2 series hole, Miami Herald NFL Mock Draft and video, Dolphins defenders skip voluntary, verdict on Heat fans' confidence & more. 4) Join us on Twitter @gregcote. Also on Facebook, Instagram, Vine, Periscope and now Snapchat, too.
The Last 3: My three most recent columns, ICYMI or thought them so wonderful they deserved another look: Heat Has Bigger Concerns Than #BringBoshBack, the latest, off last night's damaging Game 5 home playoff loss. Keep It Simple, Dolphins: 2 Names, on Miami's best-case scenario for its No. 1 draft pick. Calling Jaromir Jagr, on Panthers' need for Jagr to end his playoff goals drought entering Game 6.
POLL ON DOLPHINS FIRST-ROUND PICK: Find it right here, immediately below:
DOLPHINS DRAFT OLE MISS TACKLE LAREMY TUNSIL NO. 1: Some had him going as early as third overall but off-field and injury issues had him plummeting Thursday night. But Miami got him 13th overall. Smart steal? Huge risk? Maybe both? For me it's both a curious pick and a major gamble -- curious because tackle is one of the last positions at which Miami needed immediately help, and this should be a franchise drafting for now, not later. Click on Curious Pick, Major Gamble for my column on the pick. Now it's your turn to weigh in:
DRAFT NIGHT IN AMERICA! MOCKING MY NFL MOCK DRAFT, LIVE, PICK BY PICK: Click on Mockin' It '16 for my full, unabridged 2016 Official Miami Herald NFL Mock Draft, including full capsules for each selection and Super Bonus Draft Facts, too. Here you see the entire first round, condensed except for the full capsule on Dolphins prediction. Follow along tonight as we score our results, pick by pick, with three symbols: Bulls-eye is the optimum: Exact player to exact team. Green check mark is middle ground: Means I had the player selected in my first round but not going to the right team. Red 'X' is a big loss: Means I did not have the player selected in my first round. I did pretty well a year ago, with 26 of 32 first-round picks correct overall and nine bull’s-eyes -- including the Dolphins taking DeVante Parker. How will I do this year? I'm wondering, too. Throughout the night we'll be updating what actually happens vs. what I had in my Mock, live, with commentary, so join us starting at 8...
Greg Cote's 25th annual Miami Herald NFL Mock Draft:
3. San Diego Chargers: Laremy Tunsil, OT, Ole Miss / The pick: Joey Bosa, DE, Ohio State / I had Bosa going 5th. Bolts go for D. St. Thomas Aquinas happier than Philip Rivers. Mock score: 3-for-3, 2 Bull's-eyes.
4. Dallas Cowboys: Jalen Ramsey, CB, Florida State / The pick: Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Ohio State / I had Elliott, of the crop-top shirt, going 8th. This is draft's first loss for Dolphins. Would have loved him, but couldn't trade up this high. Mock score: 4-for-4, 2 Bull's-eyes.
6. Baltimore Ravens: DeForest Buckner, DE, Oregon / The pick: Ronnie Stanley, OT, Notre Dame / I had Stanley going 7th. #CloseDon'tCount (And Laremy Tunsil continues to slide). Mock score: 6-for-6, 2 Bull's-eyes.
7. San Francisco 49ers: Ronnie Stanley, OT, Notre Dame / The pick: DeForest Buckner, DE, Oregon / I had Buckner going 6th. #CloseDon'tCount. (Getting tired of that hashtag). Mock score: 7-for-7, 2 Bull's-eyes.
8. Cleveland Browns: Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Ohio State / TRADE: Tennessee moves up to 8th. The pick: Jack Conklin, OT, Michigan State / I had Conklin going 15th. Tunsil continues in freefall. Mock score: 8-for-8, 2 Bull's-eyes.
10. New York Giants: Myles Jack, ILB, UCLA / The pick: Eli Apple, CB, Ohio State / Invest big in "The Big Apple" tabloid headlines. A reach. I had Apple going way down at 28th. Miami had some interest. Mock score: 10-for-10, 2 Bull's-eyes.
11. Chicago Bears: Shaq Lawson, DE, Clemson / TRADE: Tampa Bay moves down to 11th. The pick: Vernon Hargreaves, CB, Florida / I had Hargreaves going 9th, but to Tampa, so that's an Exacto. Miami had a big interest. Mock score: 11-for-11, 3 Bull's-eyes.
12. New Orleans Saints: Leonard Floyd, OLB, Georgia / The pick: Sheldon Rankins, DE, Louisville / I had Rankins going 19th. You knew they'd go D. Dolphins on the clock! Mock score: 12-for-12, 3 Bull's-eyes.
13. MIAMI DOLPHINS: WILLIAM JACKSON, CB, HOUSTON / The pick: Laremy Tunsil, OT, Ole Miss / I had Tunsil going 3rd but he fell precipitously fell with off-field and injury issues. A major risk. Mock score: 13-for-13, 3 Bull's-eyes / Original post: I doubt Miami will stay at 13. I see them trying to trade up into the 7-8 range to select the RB Elliott he he gets past Dallas picking 4th — a bold move of the headline-grabbing type that is part of the Mike Tannenbaum canon. But I also can see the Fins anticlimactically trading down because, after Ramsey and Hargreaves no DB is worth this high a pick and likely could be gotten lower. That includes Jackson or Ohio State’s Eli Apple, both of whom might be labeled a “reach” taken this high. If Miami does stay at 13, though — and assuming Elliott, Jack and Hargreaves are all off the board -- then grabbing the best available corner here would make sense as an urgent need. Apple may well be rated slightly higher by Miami and might be a safer mock pick for me than Jackson here. But Jackson is older, more mature and more ready now than the riskier Apple. Jackson looks a safer bet for the Dolphins (if not for me), and Miami cannot afford a first-round misfire.
21. Washington Redskins: A’Shawn Robinson, DT, Alabama / TRADE: Houston moves up to 21st. The pick: Will Fuller, WR, Notre Dame / I did not have Fuller in my first round. Mock score: 19-for-21, 3 Bull's-eyes.
22. Houston Texans: Josh Doctson, WR, Texas Christian / TRADE: Washington moves down to 22nd. The pick: Josh Doctson, WR, Texas Christian / I had Doctson going in this exact spot, but to a different team. Mock score: 20-for-22, 3 Bull's-eyes.
24. Cincinnati Bengals: Corey Coleman, WR, Baylor / The pick: William Jackson, CB, Houston / I had Jackson going 13th, to Miami. Still think he'd have been a better pick than Tunsil. Mock score: 22-for-24, 4 Bull's-eyes.
28. Kansas City Chiefs: Eli Apple, CB, Ohio State / TRADE: San Francisco moved up to 28th. The pick: Joshua Garnett, OG, Stanford / I did not have Garnett in my first round. Mock score: 24-for-28, 5 Bull's-eyes.
[New England Patriots: Forfeited 29th overall pick]
30. Arizona Cardinals: Vonn Bell, S/CB, Ohio State / The pick: Robert Nkemdiche, DT, Ole Miss / I did not have Nkemdiche in my first round. Probably round's biggest risk along with Miami's Tunsil. Mock score: 24-for-29, 5 Bull's-eyes.
31. Carolina Panthers: Emmanuel Ogbah, DE, Oklahoma State / The pick: Vernon Butler, DT, Louisiana Tech / I did not have Butler in my first round. #EndingWithAWhimperHere Mock score: 24-for-30, 5 Bull's-eyes.
32. Denver Broncos: Hunter Henry, TE, Arkansas / TRADE: Seattle moved down to 32nd. The pick: Germain Ifedi, OT, Texas A&M / I did not have Ifedi in my first round. #CrappedMyPantsLateInRound Final Mock score: 24-for-31, 5 Bull's-eyes.
JUST TO CONFIRM: DOLPHINS NOT VERY GOOD LATELY IN FIRST ROUND: ESPN used Pro Football Reference's Approximate Value (AV) metric, which is sort of the football equivalent of baseball's WAR (Wins Over Replacement), to rank NFL teams on their first-round draft success over the past 10 years. And Miami checks in a sub-mediocre 22nd of 32 teams with a minus-0.8 score. Ryan Tannehill is called the best pick since 2006, and of course Dion Jordan (pictured) is the worst. ESPN's Dolphins synopsis: "Six of Miami's 10 first-round picks in the last decade failed to meet draft expectations, but their most questionable selection was Jordan. Despite a solid defensive line, Miami moved up nine spots from 12th to third to pick Jordan, who has since been suspended twice for violating the league's substance abuse policy." Top three-rated teams overall: Carolina plus-11.5, Houston plus-7.7 and Baltimore plus-6.8. Elsewhere in the AFC East, New England is 4th overall at plus-6.4, the Stinkin' Jets are 9th at plus-3.0 and Buffalo is 30th at minus-4.2.
IMAGINE THAT: MARLINS BEST TEAM IN TOWN TODAY: The Panthers and Heat were supposed to own South Florida sports' spring-into-summer with long playoff runs. Hmm. The Panthers unexpectedly were eliminated in the first round by the underdog New York Islanders. Now, after last night's dispiriting home loss, Miami's third straight in the series, the favored, sinking Heat suddenly face first-round elimination in Game 6 Friday in Charlotte. A huge double disappointment looms. Meanwhile? The overlooked, slow-starting Marlins have quietly won four games in a row, tied for the third-best current streak in MLB. I say quietly because they're on the west coast, so only adamant Fish-heads and wide-eyed insomniacs are watching the games. Still, at least somebody is winning around here. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Everybody's Doin' the Fish!
Poll result: Mixed views, and close, but more Heat fans side with Bosh than with team: We asked who's right in the disagreement between Chris Bosh saying he's ready to play now and the team saying no (you may still vote), and it was 42.4 percent siding with Bosh and 35.2% with the team. The other 22.4% were undecided or called the issue too complicated to take sides.