GREG COTE'S RANDOM EVIDENCE BLOG: MIAMI. SPORTS. AND BEYOND.
1) It is SATURDAY, MARCH 14. In The Previous Blogpost (ITPB): Suh effect/Dolphins expectations poll, college hoops, robot sportswriters & more. 2) Follow us on Twitter @gregcote. Also on Facebook, Instagram and Vine.
It's back! Our annual March Madness Haiku Challenge!: An annual spring fixture in this blog is our March Madness Haiku Challenge. You know the drill. Haikus (17-syllable poems) about the coming NCAA Tournament. Stay tuned. Rules and details coming Sunday, contest starts Monday.
Ex-Cane Henderson leads NFL performance-pay list: NFL every spring puts out Top 25 list of performance-based pay bonuses, based on playing time vs. salary. Guys on list tend to be modestly paid but prominent -- overachievers, based on their salary. Well, No. 1 for last season was Bills tackle Seantrel Henderson, the ex-Cane, with a $373,671 bonus. One Dolphin made it: LB Jelani Jenkins, 24th with $242,782.
PLAYOFF CHASE UPDATE: Heat/Panthers status entering Saturday: A new daily blog feature as two teams fight to finish in top eight in Eastern Conference. HEAT--Trending down in 9th place at 29-36 (L1), 1/2 game from 8th and 1/2 game from 10th with 17 games left (next Monday vs. Cleveland). Heat playoff likelihood: 33.7% (down 3.5) per Hollinger/ESPN. PANTHERS--Trending down in 10th place at 30-37 (W2), 1 point from 9th and 6 points from 8th with 15 games left (next tonight at Carolina). Cats playoff likelihood: 4.6% (unchanged) per sportsclubstats.com.
DOLPHINS TRADE WALLACE, SIGN CAMERON AND STILLS: On Wallace: Dolphins late yesterday traded receiver Mike Wallace (pictured saying goodbye) to Vikings, along with a seventh-round draft pick, in exchange for a fifth-round pick. They gave him away in ending speculation whether he'd remain with team. His free- agent signing in 2013 is tough to judge (see poll just below). The 140 catches for 1,792 yards and 15 TDs in two seasons is not the Pro Bowl level Miami thought it was getting but neither should it be called a complete failure. What's notable is that Wallace was targeted 256 times, so the 140 catches translates to only 54.6 percent -- that's low. It speaks to he and Ryan Tannehill never quite finding their chemistry. So does the fact only one of his 15 scoring plays exceeded 50 yards. On Cameron: Free agent tight end Jordan Cameron looks the part at 6-5 and 245 pounds and is only 26. In 2013 he made the Pro Bowl with 80 catches for 917 yards and seven TDs for Cleveland. And last year even sidelined almost half the season he averaged a big 17.7 yards per catch. He isn't Rob Gronkowski or Jimmy Graham but at his healthy best he's very good, a guy who can bust big plays and a guy popular in fantasy drafts, though considered a below-average run blocker. The asterisk: Cameron has a concussion history that bedeviled him last season and could well reoccur. Cameron: "If it was a concern for me, I wouldn’t be here right now. I’ve seen a lot of specialists and talked to a lot of people and it’s cleared. There is no cause for concern on my end and the Dolphins felt the same." Cameron is a quality hedge against the Fins likely losing Charles Clay to Buffalo. On Stills: Receiver Kenny Stills comes in trade via Minnesota, giving up LB Dannell Ellerbe and a third-round pick. Ellerbe was a bust but a 3R pick is pricey. Stills had 63 catches for 931 yards and three TDs with Saints last season and is only 22. He joins Jarvis Landry to give MIA an excellent young tandem.
NFL WHIRLWIND: THE BIGGEST FREE-AGENT SIGNINGS OR TRADES IN LEAGUE'S WILDEST MARCH: I cannot recall a previous NFL spring that has seen such major activity in terms of free agency and trades. In winnowing our poll to a manageable 12 names I had to omit several notable player movements. (Sorry you missed the cut, Brian Hartline to Browns, Jordan Cameron and Kenny Still to Dolphins and Jared Odrick to Jaguars). What I present you is the top dozen players switching teams, listed alphabetically. You may vote for up to three (3). Base your selections on overall expected impact. Consider how much news the signing made and how exciting the deal is to fans. Remember, vote for your top three and say why.
Deciphering the vote: With three votes allowed per person, a player's maximum vote percentage would be 33.3 percent if everyone voting cast the maximum three votes. A player's percentage multiplied by three is a fair barometer of the percentage of ballots on which he is being included. A percentage over 33.3 indicates some voters are voting for only that person.
MARLINS IN FANTASY DRAFT: ESPN's first fantasy baseball mock draft is out and the Marlins' Giancarlo Stanton was the No. 4 overall pick in the first round. Other Marlins chosen in the 25-round draft: Christian Yelich (7th round), Dee Gordon (9th), Marcell Ozuna (10th), Steve Cishek (13th), Mat Latos (18th), Jose Fernandez (20th) and Martin Prado (24th). Fernandez of course is out until midseason recovering from Tommy John surgery; otherwise he might have been among the 10 starting pitchers mock-drafted in the first five rounds.
CANES BASKETBALL SHOULD BRACE FOR BAD NEWS NOW: Jim Larranaga knew it going in. His Hurricanes needed to beat Notre Dame in second round of ACC Tournament in Greensboro, N.C. Instead UM lost 70-63, continuing a close-but-not-quite season now at 21-12. (Cane Tonye Jekiri is pictured right). The U will be very close to making the NCAA tournament on Selection Sunday, but is expected to fall just short and settle for the NIT. Miami's low RPI number and 1-7 mark vs. ranked teams will be tough to overcome. Upsetting the Irish might have done it. Eamonn Brennan's analysis of UM's situation for ESPN: "Miami's resume' is basically the same as it's been all February: one massive road win (at Duke), four ugly losses (including a still-inexplicable 72-44 home drilling at the hands of Eastern Kentucky), a good road record (which Larranaga has been touting as much as possible), a bad non-conference schedule and a shaky RPI. Miami has been among the first teams outside Joe [Lunardi's] bracket for weeks; it has never gotten over the hump. It may yet on Selection Sunday. We'd be surprised, but far stranger things have happened. Fingers crossed."
Poll result: Suh expected to lift Dolphins to playoffs: We asked your expectations for the Dolphins in the wake of the Ndamukong Suh signing and most, 65.4 percent, voted "fairly high/playoffs." Then it was 12.3% "modest/improved but no playoffs," 9.7% "low/disappointment and firings," 9.3% "high/division champs," and 3.3% "very high/Super Bowl contender." That's 78.1% overall who expect the playoffs, though doubts remain.
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