Breakfast leftovers
It's human nature to base your feelings about a team on the last thing you've seen from that team. But there are a couple of reasons not to assume you'll see Wednesday night's version of the Heat against the Celtics.
First, every series takes on an identity of its own. You can't assume the Heat will play the same way against the Celtics as it did against Philly. Nor can you assume that the Celtics, who played against the defenseless Knicks, are as good as they looked in that series.
There's a real good chance the Heat was playing the toughest opponent of the top seeds in the East. The Knicks were clearly the worst. The Pacers looked good by sticking with the Bulls, but the Sixers were the most disciplined team, had a terrific defensive game plan and had a few legitimate scoring threats.
Second, the Heat we saw in that Game 5 against the Sixers just doesn't show up very often. The 30 three-point attempts wasn't so much the Heat just giving in to the Sixers defensive game plan. It just happened that Mario Chalmers was confident in his shot, and it was one of those games where both LeBron James and Dwyane Wade decided to jack up a few to see if they were feeling it. Toss in James Jones' threes and the fact that Eddie House played a handful of minutes, next thing you know you're up to 30 three-pointers (not to mention that one Chris Bosh threw up late in the shot clock).
Against the Celtics for the season, the Heat averaged 17.5 threes a game. The problem was the Heat only hit 28.6 percent of those shots against Boston. To counter that, the Heat did get to the free throw line almost 29 free throws a game against the C's in the regular season, which would indicate that Miami can get to the rim against this defense.
Here's the problem when it comes to Boston. The Celtics execute so well offensively that they attempt less threes but at a much better rate. The Celtics shot 15 threes a game in four games against Miami, hitting a ridiculous 45 percent against the Heat. That more than made up for the fact the C's got to the line six less times a game than Miami.
Two players the Heat hasn't really unleashed on the Celtics are Joel Anthony and Chalmers. Anthony averaged about 20 minutes against Boston, which is about 10 less than he's playing these days. And Anthony is just a different player now than he was earlier in the season. I mean, he not only looked to shoot the game's most important shot, but then he made the two free throws after he was fouled Wednesday.
And Chalmers only had one game against Boston where he played more than 13 minutes. And that was just 20 minutes on April 10. Chalmers can be, at the very least, disruptive against Rajon Rondo and the Celtics offense. He probably should stay away from guarding Ray Allen because Chalmers has a tendency of either getting caught up in screens or just trying to cheat around them and getting burned. But he can play center field well (play off Rondo while bothering the rest of the Celtics players), which is what the Heat will ask of anyone that's guarding Rondo.
If you include significantly better shooting performances from Wade in this series than he had against Boston in the regular season -- and a possible appearance from Udonis Haslem, and you're looking at a matchup that should be nothing like the regular season games between these two teams.
Still say the Heat win it in seven games.