Thursday, April 28, 2011

Breakfast leftovers

It's human nature to base your feelings about a team on the last thing you've seen from that team. But there are a couple of reasons not to assume you'll see Wednesday night's version of the Heat against the Celtics.

First, every series takes on an identity of its own. You can't assume the Heat will play the same way against the Celtics as it did against Philly. Nor can you assume that the Celtics, who played against the defenseless Knicks, are as good as they looked in that series.

There's a real good chance the Heat was playing the toughest opponent of the top seeds in the East. The Knicks were clearly the worst. The Pacers looked good by sticking with the Bulls, but the Sixers were the most disciplined team, had a terrific defensive game plan and had a few legitimate scoring threats.

Mario celebrate Second, the Heat we saw in that Game 5 against the Sixers just doesn't show up very often. The 30 three-point attempts wasn't so much the Heat just giving in to the Sixers defensive game plan. It just happened that Mario Chalmers was confident in his shot, and it was one of those games where both LeBron James and Dwyane Wade decided to jack up a few to see if they were feeling it. Toss in James Jones' threes and the fact that Eddie House played a handful of minutes, next thing you know you're up to 30 three-pointers (not to mention that one Chris Bosh threw up late in the shot clock).

Against the Celtics for the season, the Heat averaged 17.5 threes a game. The problem was the Heat only hit 28.6 percent of those shots against Boston. To counter that, the Heat did get to the free throw line almost 29 free throws a game against the C's in the regular season, which would indicate that Miami can get to the rim against this defense.

Here's the problem when it comes to Boston. The Celtics execute so well offensively that they attempt less threes but at a much better rate. The Celtics shot 15 threes a game in four games against Miami, hitting a ridiculous 45 percent against the Heat. That more than made up for the fact the C's got to the line six less times a game than Miami.

Two players the Heat hasn't really unleashed on the Celtics are Joel Anthony and Chalmers. Anthony averaged about 20 minutes against Boston, which is about 10 less than he's playing these days. And Anthony is just a different player now than he was earlier in the season. I mean, he not only looked to shoot the game's most important shot, but then he made the two free throws after he was fouled Wednesday.  Ray allen

And Chalmers only had one game against Boston where he played more than 13 minutes. And that was just 20 minutes on April 10. Chalmers can be, at the very least, disruptive against Rajon Rondo and the Celtics offense. He probably should stay away from guarding Ray Allen because Chalmers has a tendency of either getting caught up in screens or just trying to cheat around them and getting burned. But he can play center field well (play off Rondo while bothering the rest of the Celtics players), which is what the Heat will ask of anyone that's guarding Rondo.

If you include significantly better shooting performances from Wade in this series than he had against Boston in the regular season -- and a possible appearance from Udonis Haslem, and you're looking at a matchup that should be nothing like the regular season games between these two teams.

Still say the Heat win it in seven games.

Tuesday, April 26, 2011

Starting issues

One of the primary points of conversation since the Game 4 loss has been the play of the starting lineup, which has been outscored 131-102 in the first four games of the series.

You'd think the problem is the defense, given that the Sixers have jumped out to big leads three times in this series. And while that is an issue, the Heat's offense is what's struggled most with that lineup.

Zydrunas Ilgauskas has done his part on the offensive boards (his postseason numbers are actually better than his regular season stats so far), but he's not getting those open 18-footers we're used to seeing him get when he starts. Bibby stare

Mike Bibby, on the other hand, hasn't been hitting at his usual pace, which is probably the biggest issue for the starters, especially when Bibby's presence on the defensive end isn't helping much either.

Bibby has hit just 4 of 19 three-pointers in the series (21 percent), which is way worse than his 46 percent clip from the regular season. Both Dwyane Wade and LeBron James continue to encourage Bibby to shoot the ball, so we'll see if this cold streak is a brief one or if it lingers.

Erik Spoelstra has no intention of switching up the starting lineup to include either Mario Chalmers, who played 31 minutes Sunday, or Joel Anthony, who's the most used center in this series.

Spo might have another option soon. Probably not for Wednesday's Game 5, but quite possibly for the next series against the team no one's allowed to speak of until after this series is over.

Udonis Haslem remains confident that he'll be back in these playoffs. He practiced with the team Tuesday, and it was a physical practice. And he believes it's a matter of "when" not "if" he'll be back. That would help the Heat's flexibility with frontcourt matchups, not to mention rebounding.

 

Sunday, April 24, 2011

Trust issues?

Erik Spoelstra will say no, and of course one road playoff game isn't enough to judge, but the Heat was essentially limited to six players Sunday, with James Jones, Mario Chalmers and Joel Anthony joining the Big Three in significant minutes.    Spo hips

Mike Bibby went 0 of 6 from the floor and struggled defensively, and Zyrdunas Ilgauskas played token starter's minutes and didn't produce. With Mike Miller out of the rotation, for the time being at least, it limited the team's options and forced all member of the Big Three to play more than 40 minutes.

The idea, of course, was that it was OK to wear out those guys as long as it meant a win and a week to recover. Instead, it resulted in a loss and another game Wednesday while the older Celtics get their much needed rest after sweeping the Knicks.

The reason for the loss also had to do with trust, as Chris Bosh will explain.

“Sometimes you get a little tight,” Bosh said in regard to the Heat's lack of offensive execution. “It is tougher to execute down the stretch. When the attention is focused on the last minute of the game, it’s tough to execute your offense. It’s easy to trust when you’re up 2-0, 3-0.

“We’re gonna have to trust each other.”

Chances are that's just a minor slip-up. Chances are that Bibby will shoot his usual percentage and Big Z will hit the offensive boards again and Dwyane Wade and LeBron James won't resort to hero basketball again when games get tight.

But this game was just a reminder that it still can happen to this group, even when it looks like everything was going in its favor.

.... Oh, and feel free to go off about LeBron taking and missing the Heat's final shot. That topic had been dormant for some time now anyway.

Friday, April 22, 2011

Smell the gym

Quick correction from the previous entry... When Doug Collins was complaining about one foul being called in 120 minutes, it was in reference to Lebron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh, who combined to play about 120 minutes Thursday and were called for one foul combined.

On to Friday, there really wasn't much to it, other than Erik Spoelstra holding a light practice so his team could "smell the gym."

Spoelstra said he expects Mike Miller's role to be the same as it was Thursday, which means he won't play for the second straight game. He's totalled six minutes in the series, though Spoelstra insists the team will still need Miller as the playoffs go on. We'll see about that.

On a more positive note, Spoelstra was very complimentary of his centers, who were a huge part of Thursday's win. Zydrunas Ilgauskas had eight rebounds, all offensive, while Joel Anthony got plenty of credit for shutting down Thaddeus Young as well as for spearheading the Heat's defensive effort.

"I enjoy looking at his boxscore after every single game and seeing how unremarkable it looks," Spo said of Joel. "His energy is contagious. Hustle is a talent. It’s a skill."

As for the point guard play, which was less than stellar against the Sixers, to the point where the Heat finished the game without a point guard on the floor, Spoelstra said it shouldn't be a signal of things to come.

"I’m not too worried about it," he said. "That doesn’t affect my trust level about either one of them."

Mario Chalmers spent most of Thursday's game listening to Wade and LeBron yell at him for missed defensive assignments or poor offensive decisions. And he sat and talked with Pat Riley for a few minutes after practice was over Friday. He followed up his strong Game 1 with a pair of semi-stinkers in Games 2 and 3. Here's guessing he's due to finish out the series strong. At the very least, he'll want Dwyane and LeBron to stop yelling at him.

Thursday, April 21, 2011

UD or no UD

As this series continues, there remains that lingering question of whether or not Udonis Haslem will return either this series or the next one, and if so, whose minutes will he take.

Haslem still reports some soreness in the foot, but figures he could be ready soon if needed, especially if it's for five-minute segments or so. UD foot

The problem is, whose minutes will he take if he does play? When he was playing, it was backing up Chris Bosh and playing some center. Well, the current group is playing well with either James Jones or LeBron James spending some time at power forward. And for him to play some center, you're talking about taking minutes away from Joel Anthony, who has been playing very well of late and is a better shot blocker than Udonis.

As the playoffs progress, you'd assume that the minutes of Bosh and James get even higher, which would mean even less opportunity for Udonis. That's not to say Udonis doesn't have something significant to offer to the team, but tinkering with the lineup in a potential second-round matchup with Boston could be horrible timing.

Now, Udonis is probably best suited to defend Glen Davis and has a history of playing against Kevin Garnett, so that could definitely prove beneficial. But he'd have to be ready to play and not slowly working his way back.

Best case scenario for Udonis and the Heat in this scenario is for the Knicks-Celtics series to go the distance while the Heat sweeps Philly. That way the team will have a little extra practice time and get Haslem as acclimated as possible to actual game activity.

Speaking of finding minutes for someone. Are we seeing the last of Mike Miller's minutes because of his thumb injuries? He played three minutes in each of the first two games, and with Jones playing well and LeBron playing about 42 minutes a game, it looks like there's no rush for Erik Spoelstra to carve out minutes for Mike. Miller's too good a teammate to complain about it, but if he needs surgery on that left thumb, which requires months to fully heal, he should either get the surgery now and be ready for next year or be used in a capacity that can actually help the team.

Just because the team hasn't really needed him against the Sixers, it doesn't mean he won't be very useful in the next series or two (or three?).

Can't imagine it's fun being Mike Miller right now.

By the way, is it some kind of sign from above that the two guys who gave up the most money to play on this team have had frustrating, injury riddled seasons? Maybe it should be all about the money?

Tuesday, April 19, 2011

Feeling sweepy

I understand that Thaddeus Young might be the Sixers' most explosive player -- at least of the ones that are completely healthy -- and Evan Turner is a rookie with plenty of potential, but the fact that the two of those bench players outscored the Philadelphia starters by a score of 33-29 shows you how well the Heat defense played Monday night.

Still, there are a couple things the Heat could do better if it wants to make this an easy sweep in Philadelphia.

The three-point shooting could be better. And strangely enough, the Heat shoots significantly better from distance on the road (.384 on the road to .355 at home). A fairly big part of that is LeBron James, who shot .373 from distance on the road compared to .279 at home.

The other part is containing Young. At some point, either Lou Williams or Andre Iguodala or Jrue Holiday will have at the very least a big scoring half, if not an entire game. If you combine that with another big performance from Young, then you could get yourself in trouble. Maybe that means Joel Anthony spends more time on Young from the moment he gets in the game.

Now for the saddest part about this series, and no, it isn't Spencer Hawes. For the second straight game, Mike Miller played just three minutes because of that sore left thumb, which is every bit as bad as the right one was that required surgery.

The chances of Mike's thumb getting better with just a week's rest is obviously pretty slim, but at this point shouldn't he just be shut down until the second round? It certainly can't help that he's taking a beating, even if it is just for three minutes at a time, in a series that the Heat can win easily. We saw Eddie House play in the fourth quarter Monday, and against a team that features a small guard in Williams and a shooting specialist in Jodie Meeks -- both of whom House can guard -- it wouldn't be the worst idea to toss him out there for a few minutes and keep Miller from possibly hurting himself even more.

(Also... a brief moment of silence in remembrance of the career of Jason Williams, who annonced his retirement Monday. Who can forget his highlight reel passes and crossovers with the Kings, or how he turned his career around by quarterbacking the Heat to a title? All hail White Hot Chocolate. Or should it be Hot White Chocolate? Actually, that sounds delicious.)

Friday, April 08, 2011

Playoffs start early

Smart approach for Erik Spoelstra, telling his team to treat these last four regular season games like a playoff series. It makes sense, given that a loss might mean a No. 3 seed, which might mean a second-round loss to the Celtics.

Whether that was the reason, or if it was Dwyane Wade's return, or if it was the way the Heat played against the Bucks, it was obvious the team was in attack mode against the Bobcats.

Wade had 16 free throw attempts, Chris Bosh had 10 and the team as a whole took just nine three-pointers. That turned into 56 percent shooting and 62 points in the paint. You could see the execution in the halfcourt has improved leaps and bounds from the beginning of the season.

There has been suggestions that Spoelstra was holding out until playoff time to unleash some halfcourt sets. That wouldn't seem to make much sense, unless you think of it this way: The team learning each other comes in phases. And in the early phases, it was easier to let them play with less restrictions, play fast, play instinctively. That way the players can learn each other's tendencies. And now that more halfcourt sets are in, not only is it easier to execute them, but it's harder to scout the Heat because the team hasn't spent all season running the same sets with the same options. If that's the way Spo had it planned from the start, it's a genius plan. If it's just the natural progression for a new team, well then that's just a bonus. Big Z

Pretty sure I like Zydrunas Ilgauskas being back in the starting lineup. The offense works better with him in it -- and as long as the other guys are pulling triggers and helping defensively, Z won't be much of a liability on the defensive end. If the Heat faces the Knicks, good chance it won't be long before Joel Anthony is on the floor. But Z offers a counter to Amare Stoudemire because he's just bigger and can tip in some misses. Regardless, the center spot is interchangeable, and Spo even said the minutes at the position will depend on matchups.

"I spoke to our centers about that," Spo said. "I was encouraged with what Z brought to the game tonight. He does help us stretch the floor."

After a bad game against the Bucks, it was encouraging to see Bosh recover with 27 and 10. Although the fact that Kwame Brown matched him with 23 and 13 is a little disconcerting, as is the fact that the 'Cats made a late push.

But then again, if the theme is treat these games like playoffs, the results were there: Aggressive offense, active defense and, most importantly, a W.

Friday, January 28, 2011

Pick your problem

The way this Heat-Knicks game ended, it sets up for numerous complaints, with plenty of people to blame. So here's a list of what would appear to be among the issues...

1) LeBron James in the post. He talks about playing in the post as if it's something he doesn't mind and can do with ease when necessary. But then you watch him play the way he played against the Knicks, and you wonder if he's ever going to be very comfortable down there.

2) Late game execution. This probably should be the biggest concern for this team, period. The Heat's now 1-8 in games decided by five points or less, and this is exactly how playoffs games are going to play out. The offense against the Knicks, specifically, slowed to a crawl, with either LeBron or Dwyane Wade going one-on-one. Pretty sure that's not how Erik Spoelstra would hope the play turns out, but whoever's at fault, it needs to be addressed. That's where that whole "trust" issue becomes most apparent.

3) The rotation. It's understandable that the Heat needed to go small against the Knicks, therefore either LeBron or James Jones were considered power forwards throughout the game, which opened up room in the backcourt for either Carlos Arroyo or Eddie House. But truthfully, 11 guys is way too many. That's where a lot of the confusion came in that led to 17 turnovers. Yes, they're starting a stretch of four games in five nights, but Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Juwan Howard and either Arroyo or House didn't really need to play. That still would've left a nice eight-man rotation. Wade knicks

4) The bench. Eight points. All from Joel Anthony, who was essentially a starter. It's tough to blame the players coming off the bench, because it's not like they're getting great shots, but somehow they need to get more involved.

A lot of these problems will be settled when Chris Bosh comes back, but this has to be a particularly troubling loss, as well as a frustrating one for Heat fans, who probably wanted to shut Amare Stoudemire up for saying no one's afraid of the Heat. Plus, a great three quarters from Wade was completely wasted.

Sunday, January 09, 2011

Just can't lose

When Wesley Matthews hit a three-pointer to put the Blazers up seven with 2:13 left in regulation, it seemed like the Heat's run of road wins would run out.

But a clutch LeBron James, a no-call on a double dribble (double crab dribble?) and a flawless overtime later and the Heat has now won 13 straight on the road. Three more and the Heat ties the mark set by the 71-72 Lakers.

This one had some interesting elements down the stretch.

Liked Erik Spoelstra's decision to move Chris Bosh to center and play LeBron at the power forward in the final minutes of regulation and overtime. Even The Warden couldn't slow down LeMarcus Aldridge, so he turned to Bosh to defend the Blazer big man, and after a couple defensive missteps he got much better defending him (that dunk with a couple minutes left in overtime notwithstanding).

This time, it was obvious why Spo went to Carlos Arroyo down the stretch. Mario Chalmers was either over-penetrating or simply doing a poor job of defending Patty Mills, losing track of him altogether on one possession.

Then there's the ridiculous man thBron weirdat is LeBron James. 

He was struggling with his jumper early, struggling from the foul line even, and yet when he's feeling it, he can hit any shot from anywhere on the floor.

That 44-point, 13-rebound game was one of the best individual performances in Heat history, particularly because 34 of those points came in the second half and overtime of a game that looked like would slip away from the Heat.

It's almost unfathomable that the Heat's Big Three scored 96 points in that game. Nobody other than them made more than one field goal.

It's still a tad disconcerting that the Heat shot 57 percent and needed overtime to win, and that the Blazers grabbed 15 offensive rebounds. But it's hard to pay attention to any of that when the Heat is winning in this entertaining a fashion.

Friday, December 17, 2010

If he is LeChicken...

...then LeBron James just laid a golden egg. Not sure what the NY Post was thinking with the headline, but it certainly wasn't the most clever jab ever taken at LeBron. Lechicken

Sometimes it's scary when his jumper is going. Check that. It's always scary when LeBron's jumper is going.

And as much as people want to knock him for relying on that jumper too often, he seems to find it in games like this. He had it going against the Cavs, and he certainly had it going Friday night.

As much as LeBron took the hearts out of the Knicks, there were a couple other contributors that made a huge impact.

Joel Anthony was quick enough to annoy Amare Stoudemire, keeping him on the perimeter and contesting his shot every time. Stoudemire normally does most of his damage against slow-footed centers (as he did in the first and third quarters against Zydrunas Ilgauskas), but Joel is essentially a power forward, so Amare didn't have a quickness advantage. The most impressive part about Joel was his discipline defensively. His feet were always in great position, he didn't reach and he didn't leave his feet early.

On the other end of the floor, the Knicks really didn't take advantage of the fact Joel was on the floor. They only forced him into one shot attempt in 20 minutes.

Then there was Chris Bosh. He had a couple turnovers that were the result of over-aggressiveness, but you'll live with those, especially when he's shooting 11 of 19 for 26 points. He took advantage of the size disparity against the smaller Knicks. And while you'd love to see him grab more than seven boards, he was normally on the perimeter defensively, guarding shooters like Wilson Chandler most of the time, so he was drawn away from the glass. And, of course, when Carlos Arroyo shoots it that well, having a big impact in such a short span of time, that makes the Heat's life that much easier.

As much as the Knicks want to claim they're back, that team is still in the second tier of Eastern Conference teams. Not only do they have no one other than Amare who can create his own shot regularly, but it doesn't look like that team has any sort of game plan defensively. They doubled LeBron for a possession or two, but never looked certain of what they were doing. In order for this version of the Knicks to win a playoff series, it'll take a consistently red-hot shooting performance. And that's just not going to happen. Even if they trade for Carmelo Anthony, it won't put them on a championship level.

Best news of the day was Mike Miller announcing he's ready to return, although it does bring up a quesiton of when should he be inserted into the rotation.

Mike miller It would appear difficult to force him in there when things are going this well. But things are going so well that this might be the best time to do it, when the team can afford to deal with a little tinkering.

I know it would kill Miller to miss the Christmas game if he was ready to play, but with the Mavericks coming up Monday (we can assume Miller won't play Saturday in Washington without a practice under his belt), then the Suns in Phoenix and the Lakers on Christmas, it might make the most sense to wait until the 28th, when the Heat's back home against the Knicks.

But then again, if you slot Miller into James Jones' spot in the rotation, it's not as if he has to play many minutes or has too much responsibility in the early going. So it's not asking too much of him. Wouldn't be surprised to see him inserted for one half of duty while Jones tackles the other half. At least that way you can gauge just how effective he can be while still keeping Jones involved.


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