I could come in here and say the Heat is in trouble, but that's too obvious.
I could talk about all the reasons the Mavs are in a dominant position because of the make-up of their team, but that wouldn't do much but get the Heat-fan readers either angry, depressed or make them never visit again.
I could lie to myself and everyone else and say that the Heat has nothing to worry about because the magic of American(no space)Airlines Arena will result in three wins.
But I'm not going to do any of that. I'll just offer what I think the Heat needs to do to give itself a chance. See, that way I'm not saying something obvious, or something that I don't necessarily believe, and it still gives Heat fans hope because I just used the words "a chance."
Pat Riley can't be stubborn and assume he can still use Shaq in the traditional way. It wouldn't have worked against Phoenix, it's not going to work against this team. The Mavericks have the personnel to play a defense that takes Shaq out of the game when he posts up with his back to the basket (not to compare Shaq to any of the Spurs centers, but San Antonio couldn't play its centers against the Mavs, either). So Pat needs to run more plays for Shaq on the move. Pick-and-rolls with either Dwyane or Jason Williams. If he can get the ball on the move going toward the rim, it's the best possible scenario. If that first look to Shaq doesn't work in any given possession, keep moving the ball and running the offense without feeling the necessity to force it to him. If Pat continues to insist that the Heat needs to make the right plays out of the Shaq double-teams, he's ignoring both the new NBA defense and the fact that the Mavs are just that good at playing it.
Then, when Shaq is out of the game (and I would suggest keeping his minutes in the low-to-mid 30s), run all the type of simple pick-and-rolls, isolations and post-ups of Dwyane and Antoine that worked well in the fourth quarter tonight. It looks like simple basketball, but it's basically what the Mavs do successfully, too. The Heat has the talent to run that stuff. I mean, J-Will and Toine ran a pick-and-roll so pretty in the fourth that they should take the tape of it and sell it for instructional videos.
Plus, when Shaq's out of the game, the Heat can't be afraid to run, run, run, then play frantic help defense. At home, that works. They've done it many, many times before.
Add that to the fact that, a) Dwyane Wade will be a different player at home and b) the home court is good for four or five points, and it's enough to keep some hopes up.
So there you go. That's how the Heat will have a chance of making this a series before it gets out of control. It's basically conceding that Shaq can't play his usual game against these guys, but it's also not making him a $20 million waste because you're still incorporating him.
We shall see. I'm just glad there won't be two days between games this time.
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