ESPN says your Dolphins will finish 3-13. Oy!; plus my new Jeter column, Herald NFL Week 4 QB rankings, NFL W4 Pix 'n Fantasy results, Canes' Rosier rising in updated SOPY rankings & more
GREG COTE'S RANDOM EVIDENCE BLOG: MIAMI. SPORTS. AND BEYOND.
1) It is WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 4. See previous blogpost for results of latest Dolfan Satisfaction Meter poll. They ugly! 2) Know any people who are serious Dolfans despite the last two weeks' performance? Treat them to our book on club's first half-century. Learn more or order at Fins At 50. 3) In The Previous Blogpost (ITPB): Dolphins suck in London with DSM poll, Stanton ends at 59, sickening tragedy in Vegas, Hot Button Top 10 & more. 4) Join us on Twitter @gregcote. Also Facebook, Instagram, Periscope and Snapchat.
Derek Jeter says hello to Miami, makes no Marlins promises: My new column, from today's introductory press conference at which Jeter was making no promises about the future here of Giancarlo Stanton. Read Jeter Betting On Jeter to read.
DOLPHINS HEADED FOR 3-13 SEASON? HERE'S THE MAJOR OUTLET THAT PREDICTS IT: A major-outlet computer prediction model now has the Miami Dolphins with better than a 50 percent likelihood of winning in only two remaining games all season. Let's check the math. A current 1-2 record plus two more wins -- hang on, my calculator is smoking -- equals a 3-13 season. Or so predicts ESPN's Football Power Index. The FPI has the Fins favored (50%-plus) from here only this coming Sunday vs. Tennessee (52.3%) and Oct. 22 vs. the Jets (71.8%). And I'd remind that the Titans were seen as a dangerous "it" team before this past weekend's spanking, and the Jets recently clobbered Miami 20-7. To be fair, Miami's win probability is in the 40s in four games from here. It's all guesswork anyway. The point is, right now, a season topping out around 7-9 and capable of plunging to 3-13 seems likelier than a rally to a second straight playoff berth. Something as bad as the 3-13 FPI forecasts would put Miami in very interesting draft territory, with three quarterbacks -- USC's Sam Darnold, Wyoming's Josh Allen and UCLA's Josh Rosen -- routinely pegged for the top five overall. So. If Miami does finish as bad as this computer model spits out, the temptation to draft Ryan Tannehill's replacement could be intense. Hey, this is all speculation, of course. Premature. Maybe even reckless! Then again, when your team has scored two TDs in 12 quarters and but for luck would be 0-3, it helps to pass the time.
NFL PIX 'N FANTASY: WEEK 4 RESULTS: Every Tuesday in the blog I tell you know how I did the previous NFL weekend with my Miami Herald predictions and with my Greg's Lobos team in the LeBatard Show fantasy league. In Week 4: Herald picks: Embarrassing ... again! -- The sad Dolphins and I are running in lockstep, straight to hell. I again went a terrible 7-9 straight-up and added a decent but not great 7-8-1 against the spread. (Yes, I was a victim of KC's last-second score Monday night). Had Bills and Niners with the points but not much else went right. Greg's Lobos: Woo woo! The W Train keeps rollin'! -- The Lobos improved to 3-1 by whipping Amin Elhassan 137.1-84.2, led by a beastly 34.5 from beastly Todd Gurley, who's way out front in the Lobo of the Year race. We are the Gurley men!!! Also got 23.5 from Jordy Nelson and a pleasant-surprise 22.5 from flex-play Tyrell Williams.
BRADY NUDGES INTO LEAD OVER SMITH, CUTLER FALLS FURTHER / HERALD QB RANKINGS / WEEK 4: The man Miami Dolphins fans love to hate, the Patriots' Tom Brady, narrowly nudges past the Chiefs' Alex Smith for the season lead in the Miami Herald's NFL Week 4 quarterback rankings. The Dolphins' Jay Cutler -- not real popular with Miami fans at the moment, either -- slips a couple of more spots, to 27th overall. The Bengals' Andy Dalton wins the Week 4 title with a 51.30-point game, but after a slow start, that isn't enough to put him in the current Top 15 chart as he leaps from 30th place to 19th. This is the 20th season of our Passer Success System (PASS) rankings, which began in 1998. Our formula is simple and unchanged since its inception, factoring accuracy, yardage, TD-interception ratio and team result. Most major ranking systems such as the NFL's and ESPN's are complicated and percentile based, allowing QBs who miss half a season to still win a title, while our system is cumulative, rewarding players who are consistently productive and avoid injury or benching.
MIAMI HERALD PASS RANKINGS / WEEK 4
RK LW Player, Team WK4 Season
2 1 Alex Smith, KC 39.65 160.35
3 4 Drew Brees, NO 41.40 148.75
4 3 Aaron Rodgers, GB 35.95 147.30
5 7 Eli Manning, NYG 31.40 127.65
6 5 Jared Goff, LAR 29.75 126.85
7 8 Kirk Cousins, WAS 21.00 117.20
8 9 Matthew Stafford, DET 22.45 115.35
9 6 Matt Ryan, ATL 15.10 111.45
10 11 Carson Wentz, PHI 23.10 110.90
11 16 Russell Wilson, SEA 35.75 109.20
12 12 Ben Roethlisberger, PIT 21.80 108.85
13 21 Carson Palmer, ARI 37.85 107.15
14 13 Dak Prescott, DAL 22.60 103.05
15 10 Derek Carr, OAK 12.15 101.65
27 25 Jay Cutler, MIA 17.20 70.70
Bubble: Philip Rivers, LAC, 101.35. Week 4 best: Andy Dalton, CIN, 51.30 (25-30, 286, 4-0 in win). Week 4 worst: Matt Cassel, TEN, minus-6.95 (4-10, 21, 0-2 in loss).
SOPY RANKINGS / WEEK 5: CANES' ROSIER RISING IN RACE FOR 'STATE HEISMAN': After a big, history-equaling week for college football in the state of Florida, two Miami Hurricanes place high in the Herald’s latest State Offensive Player of the Year (SOPY) rankings. All seven state FBS-level teams won this past weekend -- only the second time that has happened. The only other time the state rolled a 7-0 was Oct. 5, 2013. The state also has a record-tying four schools in the latest Associated Press Top 25: Miami 13th, South Florida 18th, Florida 21st and UCF entering at 25th. (What were the odds the one not ranked would be preseason No. 3 Florida State?). In our latest “state Heisman” offensive rankings UM’s Malik Rosier (pictured) bumps up to third off a 198-point week, while teammate Mark Walton sits fourth. Our weekly rankings measure the most productive quarterbacks, running backs and receivers from the state's seven FBS teams: Miami, Florida, Florida State, FIU, FAU, UCF and South Florida. The rankings are cumulative but based weekly on average points per game: Total points divided by number of games a player's team has played. This keeps the comparison level even because not all teams have played same number of games. Our simple formula awards a half-point for every passing yard and one point for every rushing or receiving yard, with six points for every TD scored or thrown.
SOPY Top 10 entering Week 6:
RK LW Player, School-Pos. Average Total/Games
2 3 Quinton Flowers-SoFla qb 190.40 952 / 5
3 4 Malik Rosier-Miami qb 189.00 567 / 3
4 2 Mark Walton-Miami rb 170.67 512 / 3
5 5 Alex McGough-FIU qb 133.13 532.5 / 4
6 7 Devin Singletary, FAU-rb 120.20 601 / 5
7 9 D'Ernest Johnson, SoFla rb 106.00 530 / 5
8 8 Darius Tice-SoFla rb 97.00 485 / 5
9 -- Adrian Killins-UCF rb 96.67 290 / 3
10 6 Travis Homer-Miami rb 90.67 272 / 3
Bubble: Malik Davis-Florida rb, 87.00. Other team leader: Auden Tate-FSU rec, 81.33. Week 5 best: Milton-UCF, 232.5 points. Season best: Flowers-SoFla, 276 points (Week 3).
Cote's State of the State rankings: 1. Miami (3-0); 2. South Florida (5-0); 3. Florida (3-1); 4. Florida State (1-2); 5. UCF (3-0); 6. FIU (3-1); 7. FAU (2-3).
TOP SOUTH FLORIDA PROSPECTS IN 2018 MLB DRAFT: Baseball America is out with its Top 50 high-school prospects in the 2018 MLB Draft, and it includes five kids with local high-school or college ties: No. 14 overall is 1B Triston Casas (pictured) of Plantation American Heritage, committed to Miami; No. 15 is RHP Slade Cecconi from Winter Park, committed to Miami; No. 23 is SS Xavier Edwards of Coconut Creek North Broward Prep; No. 40 is LHP J.P. Gates from Spring Hill, Fla., committed to Miami; and No. 47 is IF Raynel Delgado of Fort Lauderdale Calvary Christian, committed to FIU.
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