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Pace and prediction

Keep hearing talk about the Heat being able to let loose offensively in this series against the Mavericks because their defense isn't as good as that of the Bulls or Celtics.

Well, I don't subscribe to the theory that this will be an up-and-down series. Now, I understand the idea that three-point misses can turn into fastbreaks, but the Mavs shoot good three-point shots, they don't randomly chuck them up there.

Besides that, though, the Mavericks don't turn the ball over a ton (12.7 TO a game in the playoffs), and that's what really sparks fastbreaks.

As for the offensive end for Miami, no the Mavericks won't pose the same challenge as the Bulls. But the Mavericks tend to junk up their defense. They'll throw a zone in there, they'll mix up their pick-and-roll defense. All of it could very easily confuse the Heat for 2-3 minutes at a time. And that's all it takes to keep the score a little lower and the pace a little slower.

Still, the Heat's main guys have a way of figuring things out, eventually. It might not be in Game 1, which will probably feature some confusion from the Heat offense, but as the series progresses, the Big Three will find ways to attack whatever defense the Mavs throw at them.

Still don't believe it'll be a high-scoring series, but I believe the Heat has a high enough basketball IQ overall to solve the Mavericks defense.

As for the series, if the format was still 2-2-1-1-1, I'd say Heat in five. But with the 2-3-2 format for the Finals, gotta go with Heat in six.

Comments

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Heat will win it in The forth we will see it

This might be a sweep! Real talk!!

Whew.

If the Heat can't "solve" the Mavs D *without* 24 x 3s, *with* Dirk averaging 12 x FTAs to Wade's 5 or LeBron's 2 -- this series WILL end ... in Dallas.

But the Heat DID bring The Fury on the defensive end. And for THAT, we can all be thankful.

Double-whew.

Like I said last post I don't expect to see Peja and Barea playing major minutes in this series. I didn't expect Spo to put LBJ on Terry but I think that threw Dallas off too so kudos to Spo. This is not rocket science Dallas match up better with the Heat on paper than they do in live games. Heat only lose if an unexpected letdown or meltdown. No team who plays zone as a crutch to hide their defensive liabilty is not to be respected. Dallas also have token foul prone bigs who don't really dominate the glass.

The Heat are a .500 team when they shoot 20+ 3s.

They shot 24 in Game 1.

Not. Good.

Miami started a 5-thumb big who had all of 1 rebound thru 3 x quarters.

Not. Good.

Good but not sustainable: 10 x boards by Wade.

Bad and hopefully not sustainable: only 5 x FTAs by Wade, 2 by LeBraon.

The Heat were LUCKY in G1 (11-24 3s).

Only fools bet on luck.

wade can sustain that, hes averaging like 8 rebounds a game in the playoffs and if dallas keeps leaving guys wide open on the three point line with all day to shoot then yea we gonna hit our fair share of threes every game, terry jj barea and peja are defensive liabilities they lucky stephenson hit uncharacteristic threes or it couldve been worse

Luck is when preparation meets opportunity. Leave give them the open look and the preparation will show and outsiders will call it luck. This series was over when he said "I'm taking my talents to South Beach."

Keep hatin' on Joel Anthony. His worth is not going to be pigeon-holed into one or two randomly picked stats.

Got the number of shots he altered but didn't block?

Got the number of times he denied the ball, hedged on a screen and roll, stopped ball penetration, boxed out someone else's man on the weak side to grab a board????????

What was his plus/minus last night? What has it been through the playoffs? What was it all year?

'5 thumbs' is making Big Z, Big Cat, and Damp expendable.

Miami wasn't forcing up 3's. They mostly seemed like catch and shoots, with shoulders squared up to the basket, shooting in rhythm. I'm good with that.

Nice spark by Chalmers.

Great defense is NOT luck, and the Heat have been suffocating offenses for 4 weeks now.

Where the hell is Sledge!!!!! lol
Kudos to Spoo for outcoachin anutha coach!! And you can best beleive Wade and Bron will have more freethrow attempts than they did in game 1!!

I watched the game twice tonight and and Dirk was treated like a superstar that pretty much evry little bump on him was called a foul.reason why Dallas was in the penalty most of the time.can't blame tha ref on this one,it went both ways but more on Mavs side.I recall a play where James got hit on the head with no fouled called then the following possession Dirk drove in and Haslem played him well foul called.thanks for sharing this post!

I bet this is gonna be the much awaited games in this series. Two tough teams collide and a former rival teams back then to 2006 NBA finals. And who will gonna survive…will it still Miami or it is Dallas now.

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