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Playing the Percentages

If the Heat can't find a way to stave off playoff elimination in Game 4 on Sunday, the Boston Celtics will New Wade advance to the second round of the playoffs and commence the offseason of all offseason in Miami.

For those in attendance at AmericanAirlines Arena on Sunday, you might want to keep a copy of the game program. By Sunday evening, it could very well become a souvenir.

Down 0-3 to the Celtics, this could very well be the last stand for this version of the Miami Heat. There will be plenty of offseason changes. So why put off the inevitable. Let's play the percentages now.

No, not those. We already know that no team in NBA history has come back from an 0-3 deficit to win a playoff series. I'm talking about playing the other percentages - the ones with far greater value. The return-of-the-roster percentages.

It's an unscientific take, one based more on common sense and dollars-and-cents.

RAFER ALSTON - 0%: A desperate reach for mid-season point guard depth had disastrous results. Skip quit on the Heat long before Miami had a chance to dispose of him.

JOEL ANTHONY - 90%: Not sure there's much of a market for Joel should he opt out his contract. The Heat would welcome back the shot-blocking franchise-made prospect as relatively cheap labor.

CARLOS ARROYO - 50%: Arroyo has two things going for him here. Owner Micky Arison is fond of him and his Hispanic ties, and he'd be open to taking a reserve role at a spot the Heat will certainly look to upgrade.

MICHAEL BEASLEY - 55%: If trading Michael Beasley opens the door to land Amare, Bosh, LeBron or BeasleyDraft even an unrestricted free agent such as Rudy Gay, Pat Riley will cut bait and make it happen. Otherwise, with Beasley still on his rookie-scale deal, it'll be cheaper to keep him and give him one last shot to shine here.

MARIO CHALMERS - 40%: After two years in the league and two years of so-called development, Rio still doesn't have a natural position. I can't see Miami bringing Rio and Arroyo back as backups. Chalmers has another year on his deal. But it's a low-cost expense.

DAEQUAN COOK - 18%: His time is up here. The former 3-point champion has run out shots at a rotation role. Look for Cook to be packaged with another player or draft picks to create cap space.

YAKHOUBA DIAWARA - 2%: Nice guy. Great attitude. His contract is up. Never became the defensive stopper/perimeter shooter off the bench Riley envisioned.

KENNY HASBROUCK - 10%: His chances to stick took a big hit when that DUI emerged from February, weeks before he was signed by the team as a developmental project. Hasbrouck better have a hell of a summer in his quest for the third PG spot.

UDONIS HASLEM - 67%: Projections of additional cap space cleared the way for Haslem to be brought Haslem Upset back. It might take a while, because he certainly wants to see his value around the league. There's mutual respect there, even though both sides will look into upgrades.

JAMES JONES - 20%: Much like with Diawara, Riley is going to have to admit he made a mistake here. The Heat have to look into buying out Jones and creating about $2.5 million in the transaction. Perhaps Jones even re-signs for the vet's minimum late in the summer to stay with his hometown team. Maybe not.

JAMAAL MAGLOIRE - 63%: The league will be short on available centers. With Bosh or Stoudemire in a featured role at power forward, Anthony's shot-blocking, Magloire's rebounding and banging and their minimum salary slots might have to be enough.

JERMAINE O'NEAL - 5%: A mutual parting will be best for both. Despite his struggles in the playoffs, J.O. will benefit from a light crop of free agent centers, where his competition on the market doesn't extend beyond Shaq, Big Z, Brendan Haywood and Brad Miller. Even at mid-level prices, the Heat won't bite.

SHAVLIK RANDOLPH - 58%: A low-budget big man with some NBA experience. His chances increase if the Heat isn't forced to take back filler in some sort of summer blockbuster trade.

QUENTIN RICHARDSON - 15%: Richardson served his purpose. No other team would have given him a starting job. And he delivered at times when the Heat had nowhere else to turn. His contract is up, and unless he takes a massive, massive pay cut, he's gone - unless his guy Dwyane Wade says otherwise.

DWYANE WADE: - 99.3%: Despite the 50-50 act he's playing by publicly leaving his options open and doing everything but outright committing to the Heat, Wade will be back. But Riley better be aggressive in getting Bosh or Stoudemire here in a hurry. Riley won the public power play last summer. Wade is in total control this time around.

DORELL WRIGHT: 20%: Say what you will about Dorell, but he's 24 years old coming off his most productive season and would only be looking for a slight raise on that near $3 million salary. Yet, that SPO-Coaching will be too steep for the Heat, unless Miami slips to free-agency Plans D, E or F.

COACH ERIK SPOELSTRA: 89%: Unless LeBron James demands Riley return to the bench, or owner Micky Arison starts asking questions or Spoelstra senses uneasiness in the front-office and steps aside, he will be back next season. Still, the last time Riley had this much on the line, Stan Van Gundy suddenly felt homesick. In other words, Spoelstra is safe.

(For live news, notes and updates on the Heat, follow me on Twitter @ twitter.com/wallacesports. To post a question or join our live Heat chat each Thursday from 1-2 p.m., click here.)

Comments

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I hope this sh!t is true. Can't wait to laugh my head off with Spotard and Haslem retained and Beasley traded to another team.

Guess which team I'll be supporting. Definitely not the Heat. I'll enjoy watching your "Dynasty" come up short year after year though.

who comes up with this dumb crap

ALL YOU FANS HERE AND THE ONES THAT WERE THE ARENA ARE THRASH!! ALL YOU GUYS DO IS CRITICIZE PLAYERS AND PUT THEM DOWN! THAT HOME PLAYOFF GAME AT ONE POINT I THOUGHT WE WERE THE AWAY TEAM! YOU GUYS MAKE ME SICK TO MY STOMACH! GO WATCH YOUR SHITTY BASEBALL OR GOLF

I agree with JDOGTHEDOG with these supposed Heat fans. You make Miami look bad. Come to Kansas City and see how TRUE fans support their teams through thick and thin. I was born and raised in the MIA but I can respect KC's love for their teams. Heck they have Red Fridays for every home game the Chiefs play.

I haven't commented n days! But this constant bashing of Oneal, Beasley, & anyone not named Wade! And even he is underappreciated by you degenerates! Hilarious, you'll be the first to cheer when we reload and start winning as if you're authentic!!! Even the Nets and Knicks fanbases are more supportive & optimistic of their teams! They would love to have Beas or any of our young talent! I'm here through 15-67, or 67-15! It doesn't change! Riley, do t be an idiot & give up on Beas like these morons insist on you doing! It would be foolish! Let's go Heat! We'll make history in this series!!!

Guys what fanbase doesn't call out bad players, incosistent players or bad coaches. I'm a degenerate for saying Wade took a bad shot, Beasley doesn't come to play every night and JO is getting abused by Perkins. I guess I should be giving out atta boys and good jobs everytime Spo makes a stupid decision or Joel Anthony shows off his brick hands. Fans in other cities boo even louder and criticize bad players 10 times more than Miami. So that isn't what makes us bad fans. What does make us bad fans is what you saw on friday. Late crowd with no emotion and a bunch of Celtic green mixed in the bunch. In other words we don't provide a true homecourt/field advantage down here. The best sports fans by far are those crazy a$$ white people that get drunk 10 hours before tip off and cheer like they're watching Jesus play 1-on-5 against the devil and 2 pairs of siamese twins. Miami fans are just too pretty for that.

Yeah make no sense we can't criticize players! We're fans of the team and residents or one-time residences of the city. We owe no obligation to these players that don't show up. At least I know the difference between a player who deserves support and one who doesn't.

I would never question Jermaine O'neal heart and desire and he filled a big hole at the center spot. His knee is the problem and I don't want the Heat investing money in to him. Doesn't mean I don't like him.

I would love to see Udonis back too but not at a no ridiculous price (i.e full mid-level or above) He a hometown product but let's pay him what he's worth not for the defense he played against Dirk in the finals years ago.

I demand to see Beasley back for he is on a rookie contract and it would be a waste to see him go for cap purpose. Also it would say a lot about the Heat development system in a negative way. He's not a troublemaker and he hasn't been given a fair stake on offense. The Heat never seem to try to get Beasley "going" offensively until we're down by 10 or more. When he doesn't deliver it's Wade doesn't get any help but you don't let him establish a rhythm early and than want to force feed the kid.

I understand Beasley is a second overall pick but I was watching La vs Okc last night and James Harden is a 3rd overall pick who had a steady year but far from spectacular but he doesn't get bash like Beasley. You know why Harden doesn't get bash? Harden didn't have to come on a team with the visions that he was the franchise saver!!! He has help all around him and he doesn't the pressure to be the man or the man behind Durant.....he's free to develop.

In short I feel for Beasley because he's a raw deal (I don't feel too sorry for him because he's still a millionaire doing better than I am lol) But he's came in with the expectation of coming to a 15 win team with a superstar with his own agenda to prove he still got it (that's the truth y'all). He also had a first year coach who as expected make a number of mistakes but his job still on the line so he's not concern about developing players. But Haseem Thabeet doesn't get as much grief as Beasley does and Beasley average 15 and 6.....unbelieveable!!!!

I'm not sure if you 2 supporters of criticizing players as a moral responsibility have been reading this blog but its been criticism of every player from Wade to Spoelstra since November. We all know that this team is outclassed against the Celtics. What possible good could come from your observations that Wade took one bad shot when in fact he kept us in the game in the first place?

Its just old and tired and serves no purpose at this point. You think that Pat Riley would have thought this team was good had it not been for your criticism? We get it. Everybody gets it. Sometimes it seems like people have nothing to offer but criticism even when we win.

Lets just back these guys up now as they get ready to play for there lives tonite.

Go Heat!

I am a big fan of Udonis and Beasley. But because of the politics on this team they can not flourish together. One of them has to go and I would take Beasley. I know what Udonis is going to give me and it is great as a backup not playing the fourth quarter when we need scoring. If Spoelstra would let Beasley play when we need offense and the team would trust him with the ball it would work. But it is obvious this will never happen. Let one of these men go.

I spent over 2 Gs on this team this year not supporting there ass. If they need emotional support to win...maybe they need to call Dr. Phil. They dam show won't get it from me when they play like garbage. Especially there better players. Now I wonder if they had a choice between a fan that's gonna support them financially but not emotionally when they play poorly or a fan that's gonna give them all the emotional support in the world with no fanacial support.......who would they prefer. Yeah that's what I thought. I spend a lot of time in a lot of different cities and I can tell you that Miami is a city where you can go places and have 1 hell of a time with minimum dollars in your pocket. A lot of these other places lives revolves around season tickets or casinos. The reason. The fan sucks probably because of the so called loyal fans attacks the fans that give there support thru criticsm that is deserved. To the orginization and players that want fans that support them financially and emotionally.......WIN CONSISTENTLY. Stop doing dumb sh#t like making the ball boy the coach. When you draft the #2 player causing people like me to spend $60 on a jersey...play the kid. I said I wasn't gonna do that sh#t no more after they got me like that with Wright but bought a Beasley jersey anywhay cause there was no way they could not play the #2 player in the draft right. When your decisions crap on the fans you take more crap from the fans.

wallace can't even wait till the series is over to start talking about trade percentages...people talk about the fans its the miami herald sports reporters who are the real travesty

Hopefully Beasley has already been informed that he will no longer return after this season so he can start making reservations to head back to Houston and back to his real home, the drug rehab center where he belongs. The only guy that should not be brought back is Beasley. Its pretty much the last game of the season we have to at least and the season with pride and dignity the best way to do that is to bench Beasley or keep him at home that way if we lose this game its at least respectable and not a laugher as games get thanks to him. the only way Wade comes back is if Beasley is gone otherwise he knows this franchise has no hope with Beasley still around.

BEAS ISNT GOING ANYWHERE WE LOVE U BEAS!!

I like the article. I don't like the coaching conclusion but I think MW is realistic.

If anything, the only change I'd make is to bump Haslem up from 67% to 75%.

UDs Biggest Fan, why do you like Beas so much? What has he shown you to suggest he is that good? What games were you watching. Do you like him cuz he's thugged out and real?

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