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Playing the Percentages

If the Heat can't find a way to stave off playoff elimination in Game 4 on Sunday, the Boston Celtics will New Wade advance to the second round of the playoffs and commence the offseason of all offseason in Miami.

For those in attendance at AmericanAirlines Arena on Sunday, you might want to keep a copy of the game program. By Sunday evening, it could very well become a souvenir.

Down 0-3 to the Celtics, this could very well be the last stand for this version of the Miami Heat. There will be plenty of offseason changes. So why put off the inevitable. Let's play the percentages now.

No, not those. We already know that no team in NBA history has come back from an 0-3 deficit to win a playoff series. I'm talking about playing the other percentages - the ones with far greater value. The return-of-the-roster percentages.

It's an unscientific take, one based more on common sense and dollars-and-cents.

RAFER ALSTON - 0%: A desperate reach for mid-season point guard depth had disastrous results. Skip quit on the Heat long before Miami had a chance to dispose of him.

JOEL ANTHONY - 90%: Not sure there's much of a market for Joel should he opt out his contract. The Heat would welcome back the shot-blocking franchise-made prospect as relatively cheap labor.

CARLOS ARROYO - 50%: Arroyo has two things going for him here. Owner Micky Arison is fond of him and his Hispanic ties, and he'd be open to taking a reserve role at a spot the Heat will certainly look to upgrade.

MICHAEL BEASLEY - 55%: If trading Michael Beasley opens the door to land Amare, Bosh, LeBron or BeasleyDraft even an unrestricted free agent such as Rudy Gay, Pat Riley will cut bait and make it happen. Otherwise, with Beasley still on his rookie-scale deal, it'll be cheaper to keep him and give him one last shot to shine here.

MARIO CHALMERS - 40%: After two years in the league and two years of so-called development, Rio still doesn't have a natural position. I can't see Miami bringing Rio and Arroyo back as backups. Chalmers has another year on his deal. But it's a low-cost expense.

DAEQUAN COOK - 18%: His time is up here. The former 3-point champion has run out shots at a rotation role. Look for Cook to be packaged with another player or draft picks to create cap space.

YAKHOUBA DIAWARA - 2%: Nice guy. Great attitude. His contract is up. Never became the defensive stopper/perimeter shooter off the bench Riley envisioned.

KENNY HASBROUCK - 10%: His chances to stick took a big hit when that DUI emerged from February, weeks before he was signed by the team as a developmental project. Hasbrouck better have a hell of a summer in his quest for the third PG spot.

UDONIS HASLEM - 67%: Projections of additional cap space cleared the way for Haslem to be brought Haslem Upset back. It might take a while, because he certainly wants to see his value around the league. There's mutual respect there, even though both sides will look into upgrades.

JAMES JONES - 20%: Much like with Diawara, Riley is going to have to admit he made a mistake here. The Heat have to look into buying out Jones and creating about $2.5 million in the transaction. Perhaps Jones even re-signs for the vet's minimum late in the summer to stay with his hometown team. Maybe not.

JAMAAL MAGLOIRE - 63%: The league will be short on available centers. With Bosh or Stoudemire in a featured role at power forward, Anthony's shot-blocking, Magloire's rebounding and banging and their minimum salary slots might have to be enough.

JERMAINE O'NEAL - 5%: A mutual parting will be best for both. Despite his struggles in the playoffs, J.O. will benefit from a light crop of free agent centers, where his competition on the market doesn't extend beyond Shaq, Big Z, Brendan Haywood and Brad Miller. Even at mid-level prices, the Heat won't bite.

SHAVLIK RANDOLPH - 58%: A low-budget big man with some NBA experience. His chances increase if the Heat isn't forced to take back filler in some sort of summer blockbuster trade.

QUENTIN RICHARDSON - 15%: Richardson served his purpose. No other team would have given him a starting job. And he delivered at times when the Heat had nowhere else to turn. His contract is up, and unless he takes a massive, massive pay cut, he's gone - unless his guy Dwyane Wade says otherwise.

DWYANE WADE: - 99.3%: Despite the 50-50 act he's playing by publicly leaving his options open and doing everything but outright committing to the Heat, Wade will be back. But Riley better be aggressive in getting Bosh or Stoudemire here in a hurry. Riley won the public power play last summer. Wade is in total control this time around.

DORELL WRIGHT: 20%: Say what you will about Dorell, but he's 24 years old coming off his most productive season and would only be looking for a slight raise on that near $3 million salary. Yet, that SPO-Coaching will be too steep for the Heat, unless Miami slips to free-agency Plans D, E or F.

COACH ERIK SPOELSTRA: 89%: Unless LeBron James demands Riley return to the bench, or owner Micky Arison starts asking questions or Spoelstra senses uneasiness in the front-office and steps aside, he will be back next season. Still, the last time Riley had this much on the line, Stan Van Gundy suddenly felt homesick. In other words, Spoelstra is safe.

(For live news, notes and updates on the Heat, follow me on Twitter @ twitter.com/wallacesports. To post a question or join our live Heat chat each Thursday from 1-2 p.m., click here.)


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