The J.O. Effect

Seven months ago, he was widely viewed as the low-post presence who would balance the roster and get the Heat back into deep playoff contention.

And if it didn't work out, he would simply be reduced to another O'Neal with a bloated contract the Heat

would look forward to dumping for financial relief and roster revitalization.

Today, with the start of training camp approaching in mere hours, Jermaine O'Neal (pictured right) is a man who finds himself in the middle of those two distinction.

The Heat's success largely depends on Dwyane Wade's health and hunger.

Miami's improvement from last season will be based mainly on the second-year growth of Michael Beasley and Mario Chalmers.

But the team's ultimate finish in the playoffs - assuming things work out as expected and the Heat falls somewhere between the 5th and 7th seeds - could hinge on the joints in O'Neal's troublesome knees and his ability provide a productive and proficient anchor in the middle of the starting lineup.

From Chalmers at the point, to Wade at shooting guard, to Beasley/Quentin Richardson/James Jones at small forward, to Udonis Haslem at power forward, you pretty much know what to expect from four-fifths of the Heat's starting five.

And then there's Jermaine.

Other than a few twitter updates, O'Neal has maintained his media/public silence this offseason. Those close to him say that it was all part of his plan to no longer SAY what he would do after an offseason of health and hard work, but rather to SHOW it once he arrives for training camp.

Well, OK. It's that time. O'Neal has certainly been here before. He arrived in Toronto a year ago talking big about playing even bigger alongside Chris Bosh with the Raptors after his career and body had grown stiff in Indiana. Then, that situation blew up after a few months, as did the swelling in one of O'Neal's knees.

Then came the trade to Miami, where there was hope just after the February trade deadline. Then, it was later discovered that all was not well with O'Neal's knees or his comfort level with his role in the game plan.

But those kinks should be worked out by now. Heat president Pat Riley and coach Erik Spoelstra (pictured left, facing O'Neal) have all raved about how explosive O'Neal should be this season after working out in Chicago most of the summer with Tim Grover, the man who fixed Wade's body and mind after back-to-back years of breakdowns.

There was even talk that if O'Neal could perform his way back into All-Star contention, he would be offered a decent deal to stay on with the Heat after his contract expires next summer. Still, reaching the status of being the second-best center in the East might be next to impossible. With the way the position shapes up in the conference this season, it will be hard enough to be the second-best center in the Southeast division.

We continue our position-by-position rankings of projected starters in the conference, with the focus now shifted to center. Based on several factors, including past production, potential, durability and overall impact on both ends of the court, Jermaine comes in as the 6th-ranked center in the East.

Here's the order: 1. Dwight Howard, Magic. 2. Shaquille O'Neal, Cavaliers. 3. David Lee, Knicks. 4. Al

Horford, Hawks. 5. Rasheed Wallace, Celtics. 6. Jermaine O'Neal, Heat. 7. Samuel Dalembert, Sixers. 8. Joakim Noah, Bulls. 9. Andrew Bogut, Bucks. 10. Tyson Chandler, Bobcats. 11. Brook Lopez, Nets. 12. Andrea Bargnani, Raptors. 13. Jeff Foster, Pacers. 14. Brendan Haywood, Wizards. 15. Chris Wilcox, Pistons.

The bottom line is this: the center position is deep in the East. If Jermaine (pictured right, with Chalmers) is healthy and on his game, the Heat can be a dangerous darkhorse among the conference contenders. If not, it will again create a huge void for Miami that not even Wade's dynamic play can overcome.

(For live news, notes and updates on the Heat, follow me on Twitter @ twitter.com/wallacesports. To post a question or join our live Heat chat each Thursday from 1-2 p.m., click here.)

Comments

[Nick Morrison]

He's going to have an unbelievable year for us. He is not being asked to go for 20 night in and out, but if he can get 15 and 10 and beasley becomes the player we expect, then that three headed monster can definitely trump Dwight, VC,Rahad, and Lebron Mo, and Shaq not to mention I think the celtics are still going to be good, but not a huge threat. Rasheed is way past his prime and at this point is overated. The Heat will be the team nobody wants to face this year I'm positive that we will be much improved from last year.

[Ken B]

Thats what i call some crazy @ss optimism!
I JO lots, and if hes healthy he can maybe give us 16 and 9. Hes got an old NBA body from years of beatings. Hes not young like Wade, his body just won't be able to do things it used to. That said i'll take JO over David Lee and Sheed even on one leg. I don't know what Mike Wallace has been smoking but i wish he'd share. I can't believe with all these stiffs Miami is inviting to camp we can't extend an invite to Arroyo or Wells or even Atkins. Wells and Atkins would play for the minimum. Is that too much to ask to help balance this roster with some much needed ball handling/scoring? That could be the difference between a 1st round ouster and maybe getting out of the 2nd round.

[Bhemis Parks]

Your rankings are a joke... there's no way David Lee(a PF) is better suited to playing the 5 than that of O'Neal. Horford is a stud at the 4 spot but slightly under Perkins if we are talking about playing the center position.

The rankings should look like this if we are talking about starting centers next year.

1. Howard
2. S. O'Neal
3. J. O'Neal
4. Perkins
5. Lopez
6. Bargani
7. Horford
8. Chandler
9. Lee
10. Brown(Detroit)
11. Dalembert
13. Haywood
14. Noah
15. Hibbert

Your list has players that aren't even going to start next season.

[UD's biggest fan]

http://www.nba.com/video/teams/heat/2009/09/24/Beasley_Working_out_092409.heat/index.html

[Ace1]

i'm not a complete homer, but i agree with the assessment from Bhemis, much more than that of the one from this article.

[Sly]

I find the rankings very debatable. J.O. over Brook Lopez? Brook Lopez was very good his rookie year, and will only get better. Al Horford def has more upside. I'd like for J.O to be healthy, and I want to believe in him, but Id trust any younger body over his, for the simple fact that when playoffs come, I dont think he will be fresh enuff to last. Joel and Big Cat will see a lot more time this yr.

Expect Beasley to have a big yr too.

[HeatDolphans#1]

Some of the people on the list are power forwards but filling in at center until the team can get a true center.

[Reheat it]

J.O, Haslem, & Q-Rich will be used as trade bait come February. I don't like the idea of trading players mid-way through the season, it could destroy team chemistry. The Heat are in trouble, I think there's a good chance Wade might walk next summer. Pat Riley will have to pull another Shaq-like block=buster deal to keep Wade interested. I think Wade will be reluctant to sacrifice his body this year knowing that they are not contenders. Pat Riley has been too patient with off-season moves, and failing to resign free agents will cost us. Losing James Posey a few seasons back really hurt our defense, I know im going way back, but just think wouldn't you rather give James Posey, the money that James Jones is making. Then there's Smush Parker....... ill just leave that one alone. J.O. needs to have an incredible season just to make the Heat play-off contenders.....good luck J.O

[Rob]

Unsigned David Lee , a Power Forward, better than Jermaine O'Neal?
You are comparing apples to oranges, Mr. Wallace.
Your list is terrible in that you didn't rank Centers, but Power Forwards that occassionally play Center.
Eddie Curry is the Center for the Knicks.
Sheed isn't a Center either.
BTW, Bargniani is the reason why they let JO go, but you ranked him below JO.
Do you watch the NBA?