Dr. Brian Latell, a well-know former Cuba analyst for the CIA and author on the subject, now working as a Senior Research Associate at UM's Institute for Cuban And Cuban American Studies, published his first electronic report this week. Here are some excerpts:
"Youthful unrest is already so endemic that the regime’s half-hearted and disorganized mobilizations are unlikely to have much lasting effect. They may well turn out to be counterproductive. Few of the youths inducted will be converted into fidelista revolutionaries and most are likely instead to grow more cynical and estranged from the system. Aware of the dictator’s failing health, younger Cubans in overwhelming numbers are likely to continue hoping that a sweeping dismantling of the fidelista system will occur within the next few years...
"Thus, even if Raul does follow his brother in power as planned, many of the policies Fidel Castro so tenaciously holds today are almost certain to be abandoned or diluted. He cannot have many illusions about this, knowing that a raulista succession is the most likely short term future after his death but also that a raulista regime would not faithfully duplicate the fidelista one.
"In the mid 1990’s Raul dispatched senior military officers abroad to study modern business and management techniques. In that era he more than once spoke on the record of the virtues of supply and demand, a concept that remains anathema to his brother. Considerable evidence indicates that Raul favors limited market-oriented economic reforms, though not a political opening. He has put out feelers to the American military, given active and retired senior officers the green light to run a wide range of capitalist enterprises, while allowing the impression that he would generally be more flexible.
"A raulista succession may not endure long and could unintentionally pave the way for a genuine democratic transition. But during whatever period of time Raul and the raulistas might be able to govern Cuba on their own, Fidel knows that many of his most cherished policies will likely be discarded. Fearing and guarding against betrayal nearly all of his life, he now worries about the worst of all possibilities: that his successors will posthumously betray him. If so, tensions between the regime’s most hard-line zealots and more moderate military and civilian officials may now be reaching a higher crescendo than at any time before in the revolution’s history."
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